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UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs Vera

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  • #1

    UFC on FOX 4: Shogun vs Vera

    UFC on FOX 4: "Shogun vs. Vera", August 4th, Los Angeles, California
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    Fight Card
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    Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Brandon Vera
    Ryan Bader vs. Lyoto Machida
    Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner
    DaMarques Johnson vs. Mike Swick
    Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan
    Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
    Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya
    Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson
    Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa
    Ulysses Gomez vs. John Moraga

    Only bet I have so far is Wagner Prado +450 so far. Phil Davis should not be a -650 favorite vs anyone, especially being so one-dimensional. There's not much on Prado, except for a few highlight reels and fights online. From what I found, he plays the quick leg-kick game, though he will have to be careful vs Davis. Prado had some pretty decent takedown defense, and moved his head and body well vs aggression. If he can keep this on his feet, he will win. Davis's striking is nowhere near as good as Prado. This is a similar bet to last week's Tim Boetsch vs Hector Lombard, where the value is clearly on the underdog.

    Looking at the Lauzon/Varner, Miller/Phan, Thompson/De Fries fight as well.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Prado fights out of Team Nogueira and has some great takedown defense and great ground and pound. We saw how Davis struggled versus fighters whom he cannot take down - he just did nothing on his feet vs Rashad Evans. Doesn't have much power in his hands. Prado stalks and is pretty built and thicker than Davis... and at 6'4" vs Davis's 6'2" and will win this if it stays on the feet.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

    Comment

    • #3
      Ryan Bader +250 vs Lyoto Machida

      Machida comes in at 201 meaning the guy did not cut at all (who cuts to 201 accidentally?) and looked smaller and softer than Bader. Price hasn't moved and I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Bader pulls the big upset.

      DaMarques Johnson +170 vs Mike Swick

      Purely another value play here vs Swick. Swick hasn't fought since February 2010, over 2.5 years and he lost his last two fights vs Paulo Thiago and Dan Hardy.

      Both plays one unit
      NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
      MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
      MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
      NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
      Updated on 01/13/18
      ---
      One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

      Comment

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