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UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar Picks and Predictions!

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  • UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar Picks and Predictions!

    UFC 153: "Silva vs. Bonnar", October 13th, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Fight Card
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar
    Fabio Maldonado vs. Glover Teixeira
    Dave Herman vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
    Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva
    Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado
    Demian Maia vs. Rick Story
    Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra vs. Sam Sicilia
    Gleison Tibau vs. Francisco Trinaldo
    Diego Brandao vs. Joey Gambino
    Renee Forte vs. Sergio Moraes
    Chris Camozzi vs. Luiz Cane
    Reza Madadi vs. Cristiano Marcello

    Couple of things I said in the other UFC thread... this main event is a no-lose situation for both fighters. Silva comes in saving the UFC card, fighting on short-notice in his own country, and no one would blame him for moving up in weight and losing. Bonnar has been a stepping stone fighter - usually finishes his opponents, but always puts up good fights. He's never been finished in the Octagon, and he looked incredibly massive in the weigh-ins compared to Silva.

    The Glover Texiera/Fabio Maldonado fight is probably going to be bad for Maldonado. We know from the Kingsbury fight that Maldonado can take a punch - and he can take a lot of them. Texiera sure can bulldoze, but will he take Maldo seriously after gameplanning for Rampage? I see Glover running through.

    Herman vs Noguiera: how does Big Nog come back from yet another injury? Does Herman have much to offer him? Herman cannot take a punch, and doesn't do well on the ground. I'm going to pass since Nog is over -300 and I don't see much value in Herman outside of fighting a guy coming off an injury.

    Fitch/Erick Silva: We all know how bad Fitch's style is, and we've seen how explosive Silva is... I hate to bet against Silva, and I still may not do it, but there's probably a tiny bit of value on Fitch. Silva has a BJJ, but I have no clue how active he is on the ground, and Fitch has humped his way through the division with lay and pray. However, if Silva gets off something like Johny Hendricks did, Fitch goes down.

    Maia/Story: Maia has looked good, but Story has done alright coming back from that Brenneman wrestle-fest. Maia has impressed me on his feet rather than his BJJ (world-class) lately, but he's alternated wins and losses over his last five fights. Probably staying away.

    Prado/Davis: I'm still on Prado here, but he's lost some value coming down from +450 to +310. He was winning the striking battle before the eye-poke in the first round.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

  • #2
    After looking at the weigh-in, it appears Nog just looks horrible... Herman has some more value, and alright for a one-unit bet!

    Stephan Bonnar +650 over Anderson Silva
    Dave Herman +245 over Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera
    Wagner Prado +310 over Phil Davis

    I think that's going to be it for the fights. Not much other action I really want to take here. I like Erick Silva there as well, but think the value is on Fitch. But I hate Fitch and his boring effort, so I'd be rooting against him anyway. Hopefully one of these dogs hit for a profit.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

    Comment


    • #3
      Pretty sad to see the underdogs not coming through much at all today. Prado didn't have much of a chance and didn't land a single shot, Herman looks bad and will probably be cut, and Bonnar looked just like another sack. I'm not really angry about any bets made as I'd bet them all again. Pretty happy I didn't bet Erick Silva as Fitch made him look pedestrian.
      NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
      MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
      MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
      NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
      Updated on 01/13/18
      ---
      One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

      Comment

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