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UFC on Fox 6: Johnson vs Dodson Picks and Predictions!!!

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  • UFC on Fox 6: Johnson vs Dodson Picks and Predictions!!!

    Fight Card
    Demetrious Johnson vs. John Dodson
    Quinton Jackson vs. Glover Teixeira
    Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis
    Erik Koch vs. Ricardo Lamas
    T.J. Grant vs. Matt Wiman
    Clay Guida vs. Hatsu Hioki
    Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
    David Mitchell vs. Simeon Thoresen
    Shawn Jordan vs. Mike Russow
    Pascal Krauss vs. Mike Stumpf
    Rafael Natal vs. Sean Spencer

    This should be a good free card. I really like Dodson and he's been super impressive since his debut on TUF. Demetrious Johnson has some power in his hands, and he's quick, but I believe Dodson has the same power and quickness. I think neither of these guys have an advantage in cardio, punching power, grappling, wrestling, and that being said, I have to take the value in the underdog. Right now I see Dodson at +180 at SBG Global and GTBets. I am taking Dodson +180 for one unit

    In the co-main event we have Glover Teixiera vs Rampage Jackson. Let's take a look at Rampage here... the guy has lost his last two fights vs Jon Jones and Ryan Bader, before that he decisioned in Matt Hamill and Lyoto Machida with the latter being a questionable decision. Rampage, known for his devastating KOs hasn't knocked anyone out since Wanderlei Silva in 2008. If you watched the Jon Jones fight, you'd remember I was thinking if there was anyone who would take advantage of Jones' sloppyness, it would be Rampage. During the fight there were two or three clear times where Rampage was in the pocket vs Jones and Bones left his guard open for a hook or uppercut and Rampage just didn't take advantage. I think that's been a consistency in Rampage's game lately - tentativeness. Glover has come in on a 17-fight win streak, with the last two in the UFC vs Kyle Kingsbury (Arm-Triangle sub) and Fabio Maldonado (Dr stoppage). Glover has been highly touted, and definitely has the KO power in both hands (12 of 19 wins by KO). Some fighters think he is a little sloppy and needs to refine his boxing... yet I don't see him being much of a boxer but more like a mauler. He's not going to out-technically strike someone, but if you get into a war with him, watch out. So you've got a guy in Rampage who has been in some wars, does his damage in the pocket vs a guy who loves to bang... anything can happen in MMA between two fighters that swing for the fences. This is a perfect set-up for the underdog, but I think you have to watch out for two things... 1) the tentativeness... Rampage has already said he will not retire after his contract is up with the UFC (this is his last fight); that makes me believe he's looking for more paydays, and 2) the name recognition Rampage still has definitely affects his true value as an underdog. Right now the lines have Glover -350 Rampage +250 where I think the true line is probably more like -500 +350 or so. I might bite on Rampage at that price, but not now. Passing on this fight.

    Donald Cerrone vs Anthony Pettis - which Cerrone is going to show up? The one who looked tentative vs Nate Diaz or the one who wrected Guillard, Stephens, Siver, and Oliveira? Anthony Pettis hasn't fought since Feb 26 of last year vs Joe Lauzon. He looked mighty impressive with the head kick and strikes to finish in the first round, but that is a LONG time for a layoff. Pettis comes over from the WEC expecting a title shot after beating Bendo and gets passed over. He then loses to a more-active Clay Guida (more on him later), and really hurts his chances. He bounces back impressively vs Stephens and Lauzon and now again has to bide his time. We'll see what happens here. I really like Cerrone here as Dana has hinted the winner here gets the winner of Bendo vs Melendez. I am taking Donald Cerrone +110 for one unit

    Another underdog I'm looking at is Hatsu Haoki vs Clay Guida. After an impressive showing vs Anthony Pettis, Guida has looked awful vs Bendo and Gray Maynard. It seems Greg Jackson has gotten Guida to forget his cardio and chin, and instead use his wrestling. Unfortunately in a stacked lightweight decision, a non-impressive win isn't going to get you anywhere but frustrated. Guida won't be getting a titleshot anytime soon with a lay-and-pray victory. Speaking of unimpressive lately is Hioki's time in the UFC. He barely beat George Roop in his debut and scored a unanimous win over Bart Palazewski. His last fight he lost vs Ricardo Lamas. You have two guys here who have been unimpressive lately, and honestly could be fighting for their jobs here (moreso for Hioki than Guida), so I think here you have to take the value in the underdog. That would be Hioki +210 for one unit

    Boy the UFC really wants Ryan Bader to win, don't they? Giving him fights he should win, he wins, then step him up against competition and he folds. Now he's fighting Vladimir Matyushenko, a guy not to be toyed with. The Janitor has a good chin, but ran up against a buzz saw that was Alexander Gustaffson last time in the Octagon. Bader is something like a -500 favorite at some sites, and I think it's quite justified the way the UFC matches him up, but I don't have much confidence in The Janitor unfortunately at 42 years old. Bader seems to fight stupid (Tito Ortiz) and if he wants to stand and trade with Matyushenko, he could get caught, but this should be a clear-cut wrestling victory for the former NCAA champ.

    Like Mike Russow vs Shawn Jordan, as you never bet against a fat cop! :)

    Good luck guys, let's hope for some barking dogs.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.