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UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler Picks and Predictions!!!

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  • UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler Picks and Predictions!!!

    UFC 171, March 15th, Dallas, TX
    Fight Card
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    Johny Hendricks vs. Robbie Lawler
    Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley
    Myles Jury vs. Diego Sanchez
    Hector Lombard vs. Jake Shields
    Nikita Krylov vs. Ovince St. Preux
    Kelvin Gastelum vs. Rick Story
    Jessica Andrade vs. Raquel Pennington
    Dennis Bermudez vs. Jimy Hettes
    Alex Garcia vs. Sean Spencer
    Renee Forte vs. Frank Trevino
    Will Campuzano vs. Justin Scoggins
    Robert McDaniel vs. Sean Strickland
    Daniel Pineda vs. Robert Whiteford


    What a stacked card here tonight!!! The undercard on UFC Fight Pass features some great fighters like Daniel Pineda, Bubba McDaniel, and Will Campuzano! The middlecard on Fox Sports 2 features two TUF winners in Dennis Bermudez and Kelvin Gastelum! The PPV card is stacked!

    Main event pits Johny Hendricks vs Robbie Lawler. Two strikers with KO power in both hands usually negate each other (unlike Diego Sanchez/Gil Milendez), so we look at other aspects of their game... cardio and wrestling particularly. Johny has a great wrestling background (four-time all-American) that he uses exceptionally. He leads the division with 4.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. If Hendricks is able to take it to the ground, he'll likely not face much adversity as Lawler has never even attempted a submission from the ground. He's much more likely scrambling to get to his feet.

    Cardio has barely been an issue due to Hendricks' KO power with quick finishes vs Kampmann, Fitch, Waldburger. The fight vs GSP showed that he slowed a bit, but not really noteworthy. However, because he missed weight initially, he had two hours to focus more on cutting instead of rehabbing. I think this impacts him greatly!

    Hendricks also has NEVER had his chin tested as he has never even been knocked down in the UFC (how crazy is that!?). Though it's likely Lawler will test this.
    ***

    The co-main event pits The Natural Born Killer vs Tyron Woodley in what will likely be the number one contender fight for the belt in the main event. Carlos Condit is the clear favorite if the fight remains standing, he's an excellent kickboxer and consistently lands much more strikes vs his opponent despite being taken down a LOT! Over his career, Condit lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute (while absorbing 2.23), while Woodley lands 2.71 (while absorbing more: 2.79).

    Condit's TDD is the among the worst in the UFC. He's been taken down 51 times in 15 fights including 25 times in his last three fights. He's fought excellent wrestlers in the past but also been taken down by those not known for wrestling (Kampmann took him down 11 times in two fights). Woodley meanwhile has a great wrestling background, and is likely wanting to take the fight to the ground. Though he's not a prolific attacker from top position, instead wanting to focus on position and keeping his opponent there. However, Condit is very very capable of getting to his feet after being taken down (Hendricks had to take down Condit 12 times in 15 minutes).

    Here's the deal, it's very hard to win a decision when you've been taken down a lot. In Condit's win over Kampmann, Condit was able to scramble back to his feet, make Kampmann gas from all the takedown attempts, and eventually KO him in the fourth. Can Condit make Woodley gas? Will he have enough to KO Woodley or land enough strikes? This is a very intriguing matchup!

    Couple of other notes:
    1) Boy did Jake Shields look small, withered, and awful at the weigh-in.
    2) Same with Nikita Krylov (moving down in weight to fight OSP)
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

  • #2
    Parlays:

    Justin Scoggins over Will Campuzano
    Alex Garcia over Sean Spencer
    Myles Jury over Diego Sanchez
    +134 for one unit

    Daniel Pineda over Robert Whiteford
    Bubba McDaniel over Sean Strickland
    Renee Forte over Frank Trevino
    +441 for one unit

    Dennis Bermudez over Jimy Hettes
    Hector Lombard over Jake Shields
    +110 for one unit

    Kelvin Gastelum over Rick Story
    Raquel Pennington over Jessica Andrade
    OSP over Nikita Krylov
    +560 for one unit

    Robbie Lawler over Johny Hendricks
    Tyron Woodley over Carlos Condit
    +722 for one unit
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

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