UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira Picks and Predictions!!!

[akatdrake]

Jon Jones vs Glover Teixiera
Phil Davis vs Anthony Johnson
Tim Boetsch vs Luke Rockhold
Jim Miller vs Yancy Medeiros
Andre Fili vs Max Holloway
Joseph Benevidez vs Tim Elliott
Isaac Vallie-Flagg vs Takanori Gomi
Jessamyn Duke vs Bethe Correia
Danny Castillo vs Charlie Brenneman
Chris Beal vs Patrick Williams

Right here we have a few decent fights. Looking at the main event of course pits someone in Teixiera who has KO power Jones has never seen. Will Jones be able to implement a Machida like fight vs the more powerful fighter. Will he take it to the ground against the bjj black belt?

The co-main event has two streaking light heavyweights in Phil Davis vs Rumble Johnson. I am super stoked to see Johnson back in the UFC after getting his head on straight over in WSOF (dispatching DJ Linderman, Andrei Arlovski, and Mike Kyle). He fought previously in Titan FC and the XFL and is on a six fight win streak. Phil Davis has won three in a row vs Wagner Prado, Vinny Magalhaes, and a very very controversial decision win over Lyoto Machida.

[akatdrake]

Tim Boetsch has an iron chin, but Rockhold is a dynamic striker. This most likely goes to a decision. I don't see either fighter getting the finish.

I don't know much about Yancy Medeiros other than he's not beaten any named fighters and he's 0-1 with 1 NC in the UFC.

Benevidez vs Elliott pits two younger fighters who will need a victory to keep climbing the weight rankings. Boy it seems like Benevidez does everything he can do against fighters not named Demetrius Johnson (and Dominick Cruz). All of his four loses against those two fighters. He'll likely need to rifle off three-four wins to get another title shot. Elliott meanwhile is 2-2 in his UFC career dispatching Louis Gaudinot and Jared Papazian, losing to Ali Bagautinov and John Dodson, both wins and loses coming via decision.

[akatdrake]

Williams +105
Beal -135

Brenneman +230
Castillo -300

Duke -115
Correia -115

Vallie-Flagg +170
Gomi -210

Elliott +325
Benavidez -450

Fili -155
Holloway +125

Medeiros +160
Miller -200

Johnson +200
Davis -250

Teixeira +350
Jones -500

Right away, I see a value in Glover. Jones was tested against Gustaffson and that was a razor-thin and controversial decision. I don't believe Glover has the stamina like Gustaffson based on fights and body type (not very scientific I'll admit), but he does have better KO power and Jones likes to come inside. I just don't think Jones will play the jab and run game for five rounds.

I do NOT see value in Rumble Johnson over Phil Davis. I dislike Phil Davis's style of fighting, but suffice it to say, it gets the job done. He's incredible wrestler and his striking improves each fight. There's no denying Johnson's came back from a tough time in his life, but putting him up against Phil Davis is a tall task.

Similarly, I don't see value in Tim Elliott, or Charlie Brenneman.

[akatdrake]

Singles:

Isaac Vallie-Flagg +170 over Takanori Gomi
Glover Teixeira +350 over Jon Jones
One unit each.

Parlays:

Jim Miller over Yancy Medeiros
Phil Davis over Anthony Johnson
+110 for one unit

Looking for parlay partners for Castillo and Benevidez but cannot find any. Just those for today!