UFL Week one 2025

[RBD]

Record: 0-0

I'm excited.
Well, semi-excited.
The UFL survived its inaugural season and is back for year two.

And tonight is game one: St Lou/Houston
Line: St Louis -6, total 37'

I spent about two hours handicapping the UFL today
(YES! I DO have a life, it's just that I'm still recuperating and am limited in where I can go and what I can do. Stuck home, resting for most of the time so I'm doing a lot of number crunching to pass the time and fight off boredom.)

Looking over my notes from last year on what worked and what didn't work in my Battle with the Books I see a few methods that are worth trying again this season.

I was 3-3 last year at PredictEm in my articles (I started here when the season was almost over.)

I'll be submitting my first article first thing tomorrow morning.
It'll have some notes and trends from last year that I charted and a description of the way I used to handicap this league that had zero history to work with - "Fading The Consensus Plays."

I have a data sample of picks from 16 touts and sports analysts.
Here are the numbers for tonight's game.

St L 9, Hou 6, 1 Push;
Ov 2, Un 8
(Everyone gives their opinion on a side but not everyone gives out a play on the total.)

Using the basic premise that the books don't stay in business by paying everyone I'll normally Fade the consensus play, for example tonight I'll take the Over.

Not going to be an easy to get a win with an Over tonight. Defenses are usually ahead of the offense in the early going of the season, plus there's lousy weather tonight with heavy rain in the forecast, which means they'll likely run the ball a lot and use up a lot of clock.
Also, Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff.
But what the hell - I haven't been able to bet on football since the Superbowl bowl and I'm jonesing just a bit.

Game time's not until another two hours from now so I'll wait to buy, thinking I can get the hook off 37.

Update: Thought for sure with the factors noted above the total would drop but getting close to game time so I just bought it with the hook.

My Play:
St L/Hou Ov 37'

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record 0-1

Review: I had Over 37'. Waited to buy it hoping the hook would come off but, no.
And the game landed on 37; score 31-6.

Took an ugly loss thanks in part to not one, not two, but THREE "point after" attempts failed.
Not to mention Houston's overall suckage.

From yesterday's post:
"Houston had the worst offense in the league last year and for some unfathomable reason they brought back the same coaching staff."

I counted at least three times during the game that the announcers commented on Houston coach CJ Johnson's decision making, using a "What the hell is he thinking??!!" tone.

From play calling to clock management and using timeouts, he's just all-around-awful. When I watch this guy I find myself wondering if he understands the object of the game is to score more points than the other team.

Game one is in the books and he's well on his way to exceeding last year's superior effort that had the Roughnecks finish the season at 1-9. (After which the owners will inexplicably sign him up for another year.)

Anyway . . .

Here are the numbers for today:

Michigan 8, Memphis 4
Ov 2, Un 8

Birmingham 15, DC 0
Ov 8, Un 1

So what do I have based on last year's notes?

LY when the Over had at least three or more picks than the Under it won at a 67% clip.
Yesterday, as noted in my article, the SA/Arlington game qualified. And it went Over.
Over in Birmingham/DC qualifies today.


LY when one side had a consensus of four or more than the other team they hit at 63%.
Yesterday, Arlington qualified and won.
Michigan and Birmingham qualify today.


LY teams that were a unanimous pick were 1-2 ATS.
Birmingham is the unanimous choice today.

So I have a couple possible playa today, based on numbers above.

I was going to take Michigan but the game opened at Mich -3' and is now sitting at -7. I have a general rule that if the line moves three points or more against me because I didn't buy it early - stay off the game.

Not sure what I'll play today, if anything. I have some basketball action to keep me amused. If I add a UFL play I'll post an update in this thread.

Good luck with your play today...