UFL Week 6

[RBD]

Record: 3-3

I haven't had a UFL play in the forum for 2 weeks now, no excuse for that, dropping a few this week.

I have an article with a pick that should be up later today.
For the forum I'm playing a side and a total tonight.
Just waiting to get a few more picks from the polls before I pull the trigger and make my bet.

Here's an interesting stat that I included in my UFL article:
Favs are just 5-15 ATS. Dogs are hitting at 75%!

Of the nine writers/touts that have been steadily providing their picks each week ZERO have a winning record ATS.
That's some serious stinkage right there.

On totals, six of the nine have a winning record, but I believe that's because they all took Unders in the first two weeks of the season when Overs were nowhere to be found.
I expect their record on totals to start to level out.

The worst of the lot is a guy I chart under the name The Geek, because he's a pimple-faced nerd with a squeaky voice.
No, I won't name him.
This isn't about shaming anyone, it's about looking for Fades.
And besides, he's not a scamdicapper trying to sell picks (in which case I'd gladly name him.)
I actually upvote his video each week just cuz I feel bad for the kid.
He has a record of 4-15 ATS. Yes, he's hitting at just 12%.
And he's 9-10 on totals.
I hope he continues that way because unless I have anything better to bet I'm may just Fade every one of his picks this week.
This week he likes St Louis and Over, Houston and Over, Michigan and Over, and Birmingham and Under.

Poll for tonight's game (hope to add a few more as picks come in)
Arl 3, St L 4
Ov 4, Un 1

I'll post my buys in a reply after I make my decisions.

[RBD]

Updated polls for tonight's game:
St L 7, Arl 5
Ov 8, Un 3


I spent about an hour looking over my charts for the previous 5 weeks hoping to spot an edge I could use.

If the theory and methodology is to Fade the touts (see my week one post for an explanation of this model), why is it that I don't have a record for consensus plays??!!
I'm tracking other numbers but I didn't have the number for what's the record on consensus plays for picks on a side or total.
I say "didn't" because I do now.
When there's a differential of at least two picks (example, tonight's poll has seven guys picking St Louis and five picked Arlington, a differential of two) the record is 3-12 ATS.
That's an 80% Fade!
I didn't count games where I had a differential of only one, for example if it was St Louis 7 Arlington 6, because there's not much of a differential there at all, almost the same number picked each side.
So I decided to use two and went back over the first 5 weeks and found the 3-12.
Totals when at least two or more touts had the same play, the record is 9-6.

When I get the time, I'm going to break that down into a record for when two or more picked the Over and when two or more took the Under. I will drop back in with the record after I do.

For tonight I'm going to follow the original model and Fade the consensus play on the side.
Unfortunately the lines gone from +3 to +2 so I missed out on the best number.

And despite that 9-6 record consensus plays for totals, I'm going the other way and taking the Under in this game.
Why?
Because as I stated in the original Post in this thread, I'm fading Geek Boy's plays this week and he likes the Over.

Fading touts and geeks - it's as good a model as any for this crapshoot. It's all for fun and small money anyway.

My plays:
Arl +2
Un 42'

Q1 Update:
Renegades go on a game opening drive that it's up more than half of the quarter with 0 points at the end of it.
I like it. Good for the Under.

BattleHawks go three and out.

Renegades on an 11 play drive that eats most of the quarter and ends with a fumble and turnover in St Louis territory.

Q1 ends at 0-0.
Live line now has St L -1', total down to 34'.
Points are still good, Under looking really good.

Q2 Update:
BattleHawks up 9-0 at halftime, Renegades give up a TD and field goal after the 2 minute warning.
Going to need some help for my ARL +2, but the Under looking good.

Halftime lines St L -9', total at 27'.

Q3 Update:
9-3 at the start of the 4th quarter.
Under looking like money, need a few more points from Arl.
I think I got a split, worst case.

St Louis fumbles!
Arlington recovers on the St Louis 11-yard line!
First down, QB Perez throws a pass to . . . a linebacker.
Hits him right in the numbers. Luckily he drops it.

FG for Arlington, 9-6 now.
If the BattleHawks win by three it's going to suck because the game started at -3 and I bought it late at -2.

[RBD]

Recap 1-1
Record 4-4

Got a split last night, hit the Under missed with Arlington.
I'm on the road, won't make it home in time to give the poll numbers if anyone is looking for him. I don't have the exact numbers but I know that the polls favored Houston and the Over.

[RBD]

I was incorrect yesterday. I was on the road, didn't have my notebook, said I thought the poll numbers at Houston and the Over.
It was Mem 6, Houston 4, Ov 5, Un 3.
I used Memphis in my article and banked a unit.

Here are the results of today's poll:

DC 4, Mich 5
Ov 7, Un 2

SA 3, Birm 9
Ov 3, Un 7

As I noted above, spots where two or more pick the Fav the record was 3-12 coming into week 6, 4-12 now after the San Antonio win.
Birmingham qualifies as a fade today with a differential of six in the poll but I'm hesitant for two reasons:
1 - Birmingham is in the spot almost every week and they always disappoint. I'm concerned about the Due Factor.
2 - San Antonio is the worst team in the league.
They've scored fewer points than any other team and they've given up more points than any other team.

To take the promise in this spot would be a real hold-your your-nose pick, even getting 10 points.

I think for the early game I'm just going to stick with the Fade the Geek strategy. I'll see what happens with that game and then decide whether I'll take the late game too.

Waiting to buy both.
DC is +2' right now but there's heavy juice on Michigan maybe I can get three?
And the total has been steadily rising, 42' right now.
Monitoring them both, I'll post an update before kickoff if I can.

Update: DC money coming, I saw them at +3 for a moment now they're down to two so I grabbed it.

DC + 2
DC/Mich Un 43'

[RBD]

I don't know if anyone is watching this (I hope not for your sake, unless you're betting on Michigan) but absolutely the worst tackling I've ever seen, any game, any level. No exaggeration. I'm pretty sure I just heard one of DC's linebackers shout "Ole!" as he stepped aside for the Michigan QB.