UFL Week 8

[RBD]

Recap: 3-0
Record: 7-6

Recap: I entered last week at 4-6 and my goal was to get back at least one of the two units I was down. Banked all three plays and now I'm up one.

As stated in the post last week I relied on Fading the consensus (and Geeky Boy) for the first two games and hit both plus a total.
Good move shutting it down for the weekend after banking the three units as the consensus play won the last two games on the card and I would have lost with the Fade.

Here's today's consensus: (for an explanation of what the consensus play is and what the polls means check my earlier posts on the UFL.)

Mem 5, SA 5
Ov 6, Un 1

When there's a differential of two or more on sides the record is 7-14 ATS on the team that got the higher number of picks.

For totals, when two or more pick the same side the record is 14-8.

The two worst guys (including the pimply faced geek kid with the high pitched voice) have a record of 9-20 and 9-18 ATS.
Last week, in the first two games, they were both on DC and Michigan, another reason I went against both of those teams.
They're both on San Antonio tonight which means I'd have to take Memphis, but Memphis is a horrible team, possibly the worst in the league.

With six guys on the Over and only one on the Under that's a differential of five, which plays into the 14-8 record I mentioned above.

Both of these teams are 1-8 SU and eliminated from the playoffs, both have nothing to play for. Hoping they'll open it up on offense tonight with nothing to lose.

And I'll fade the Geek again since it worked last week.

Memphis +2
Mem/SA Ov 37

[RBD]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 9-6

Review: Won with the Over and the Brahmas.
My original pick, the Over, was an easy W.
Adding San Antonio to Fade Geeky Boy turned out to be a good move, the Brahmas were winning for most of the game but needed OT to seal the deal.


Found an error on my charts for pics on sides when there's a differential of two or more and corrected it.
Here are updated/corrected numbers going into today's games:

When there's a differential of two or more on sides the record is 8-13 ATS on the team that got the higher number of picks.
Birmingham and Michigan would qualify as Fades for this today.

For totals, when two or more pick the same side the record is 15-8.
Both games qualify for this today, but both are Unders.
Overs have been coming in at a high rate recently, going 14-3 in the last 17 games including last night. With numbers like that I'm avoiding playing any Unders this week.

Two games today, unfortunately both at the same time so only one game will be televised, regionally.

Here are the polls:

Birm 5, St L 3
Ov 3, Un 5

Mich 7, Houston 2
Ov 2, Un 4

The biggest disparity on the board is Michigan /Houston.
With the differential of 5 the Panthers qualify as a Fade for my model, "When there's a differential of two or more on sides the record is 8-13 ATS on the team that got the higher number of picks."
That's a 61% Fade, normally a play for me, but there's no way I'm betting on Houston.
With 122 points scored on the season the Roughnecks are the second worst offense in the league, only San Antonio has scored fewer (Yes, "fewer" not less. You get picks, analysis, AND free grammar lessons here!)
And only SA, DC, and Memphis have surrendered more points on Defense.

I've got numbers for my handicapping models to support the side or total in both games, but I've got a gut feel that's goes the other way on all four.
For my action and fun today I think I'll go to WNBA.
No recommended UFL plays today.
Polls and other stats posted in case someone's betting the UFL today and is looking for edges.

[RBD]

Record: 9-6

From yesterday's post:
"I've got numbers for my handicapping models to support the side or total in both games, but I've got a gut feel that's goes the other way on all four."

The same situational spot I used for to win on Friday gave me four different options yesterday both sides and both totals.
But my gut said, "Don't use the same spot in these games."
And I would have went 0-4.
I didn't go against the play 'cuz the records were strong but at least I stayed and saved my money.

Here are the updated records including yesterday's games:

When there's a differential of two or more on sides the record is now 10-13 ATS on the team that got the higher number of picks.
For totals, when two or more pick the same side the record is now 15-10.

Like all stats do eventually, the record for those two plays is starting to level out, and the edge for Fading is fading.

With two more wins last night the Over has now gone 16-3 in the last 19 games. That's 84%!
It's difficult to go against a trend when it's running that strong but experience - if not common sense - tells you that there's only one way that number is going to go. Definitely something to consider when looking at today's game and next week's card.

I got two units banked for the week so even if I miss with today's play I'll still finish with a profit which is always the goal.
Let's see what the polls say:
Arl 1 DC 6
Ov 6 Un 1

I still got one more of the guys I chart to be added, he's always late with his picks, but it won't matter, there will still be a differential of at least four or more on DC and the Over.

Based on expecting that 19-3 trend to start leveling out I was looking at the Under as a play today but then I noticed the two guys with the worst records (including Geeky Boy) 11-21 and 12-18 (a combined 23-39, 63% Fade) are both on DC. That's what gave me Memphis Friday night so . . .

Arl + (I'll be back with my number after I shop around)

Update: The common number right now is DC-2' and every house has extra juice on the Defenders. I think that number is low and since there's a little more than 2 hours until kickoff I'm going to wait a little bit see if it goes to 3.

Update #2: Line starting to move against me, no more juice on the Fav, grabbed the +2'.

[RBD]

Bet Arlington today because I forgot about this, from last week:

"Review: It wasn't easy, a lot of lead changes, not to mention a horrendous display of stupidity on steroids from Arlington head coach Bob Stoops, but in the end I slid by with a W."

He had some ridiculous - not questionable but flat out stupid ridiculous - usage of timeouts last week. He was so bad even the announcers cracked a joke about it.

Just now, he's down 21-11 just over 2 minutes left.
Renegades have the ball in Defender territory, FG range, and Stoops used one of his three timeouts.
He's coming up on the 2 minute warning which will stop the clock but decides to make sure there's time left on the clock for his opponent when they get the ball back.

Sure enough, Arlington just scored, leaving DC almost a full two minutes to close out the half on offense thanks to Stoops stopping the clock for them.

Never ceases to amaze me how the common fan knows more about clock management than the overpaid head coaches of some teams.