UFL Week 9

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 9-7

Review: Won my first two picks last week, decided to bank one and risk one on one more play, Arlington +2'.

I posted a Wait to Buy notice hoping to get to +3.
The line never moved, I bought it at +2', and the Renegades lost by 3.

FYI - the Over was 4-0 last week and is on a 17-3 run.
That trend is due to crash soon but I have to play an Over tonight; see below.

Here is tonight's poll:
St L 6, SA 4
Ov 4, Un 4.

The two worst guys (records of 11-21 and Geeky Boy at 13-8) both picked St Louis. I'd like to Fade them but as much as those two guys stink so do the Brahmas.
And I have a new contender for worst of the lot, a new poll participant who comes in at 4-8. He likes San Antonio, making it even harder to Fade St L and take the Brahmas.

But . . .
All three say the game stays Under, making my action on this one an easy choice to make.

St L/SA Ov 40

[RBD]

Recap; 1-0
Record: 10-7
Review: Faded Geeky Boy and the other two biggest losers and took Over 40. Final score St L 39 SA 13, 52 points scored.
And it was a good move not Fading Geeky Boy and taking SA, I knew they sucked too much to cover a six-point spread.

FYI - including yesterday's game the Over is now on an 18-3 run. That trend is way overdue to crash but, like yesterday, I have to play it again this morning; cibolo.

Here are today's polls.

Arl 5, Memphis 5
Ov 3, Un 4

Mich 3, Birmingham 4
Ov 3, Un 2

No real edges to play there.
I went from down a couple of units just a few weeks ago to +3, so with the season ending next week I'm in a pretty good position to finish the regular season with some kind of a profit.

For today, all three guys with the worst records have Arlington and the Under, making my action on this one easy.

Memphis +6'
Ov 41

[RBD]

Recap 1-1
Record 11-8

Got a split yesterday, missed with Memphis, hit with the Over.

ALL three games this week have gone Over, it's on a 20-3 run right now. That HAS to reverse at some time!

Today's poll:
DC 7, Houston 1
Ov 5, Un 3

All three guys with the worst records, including of course Geeky Boy (I'm so tempted to post a link to his video, his squeaky voice cracks three times in just his first two sentences, it's hilarious. But I don't want to be mean. Plus, the kid's been money as a Fade, he deserves a better fate than being mocked by me.)

Normally this is an easy pick for me, but to Fade them means I'd have to take Houston and there's no way I'm doing that.
This type of gut feel thinking saved me from taking a loss on San Antonio two nights ago and I'll stick with my gut tonight.

The total is interesting though.
While I don't recommend jumping on streaks (unless you've been riding them already, and I hit two more Overs this week) I don't like going against a strong streak either.
If I had to make a choice between the two though I'd Fade the trend and lean towards reversion to the mean.

What interests me about this game though is they're scheduled to play each other two weeks from now in the playoffs.
Normally in this spot I'd lean towards an Under, thinking that both coaches are going to run vanilla offenses and not show their hand in a meaningless game. But, that was in my head yesterday on the Michigan/Birmingham game (they're also meeting in round one of the playoffs.) I laid off it and good thing too, because it sailed Over.

I'm three units above .500, which means with only one week left in the regular season I'm guaranteed a winning Battle with the Books UFL 2025. So I'll sit today's game out, and have my Sunday action/fun with the WNBA.

Correction: these two will not play in the playoffs; my error.
I was thinking of next week's game between DC and St Louis, both of them will meet in round one of the playoffs.