UFL Week 10

[RBD]

Record 11-8

I went 2-1 last week, putting another unit in the bank.

This week's Friday night pick is in my article on the homepage.
I submitted it early in the week, expecting the line to go down despite the recent run on Overs, currently at 20-4!

Reasons for the play are in the article, I'm posting here in the forum this morning just to let anyone know that if you want the Under you should buy it sooner rather than later because it is dropping.
The opening 45' is now down to 44'/45.

I'm putting together the poll numbers right now and hoping that the worst of the lot are all taking the Over on Friday's game.

I'll update asap.

[RBD]

Here are today's poll results:

St L 8 DC 1
Ov 7 Un 2

Geeky Boy updated record is now 16-29 on sides.
Bad news, he likes the Under tonight (I have the Under, see my homepage article.)
Good news, he actually has a winning record on totals.
After last week he's now 18-17.
So maybe there's hope for my play yet.

I'd like to go against the crowd and Fade St Louis tonight, eight guys on them, only one on DC, but the Defenders defense is so bad the BattleHawks backup players will probably score on them.

No play on a side for me in this one, I'll ride the total in this and the WNBA game for my action/fun tonight.

[RBD]

Recap 1-0
Record 12-8

Review: I had DC/St L Under 45'.
From this week's UFL article:
"As I pointed out last week in the forum, Overs entered week nine on a 17-3 run. And ALL FOUR week nine games went Over.
That puts the streak to 21-3, 87%!

Do you know of many betting trends that increase into the 90% range after a data sample of at least 25 games?
I sure as hell don’t.

That streak, combined with last year’s week 10 numbers, tells me that Reversion Toward the Mean is in a prime position to start leveling things out."

Final score 13-8.

First game of the week is in and it's an Under.
Remember - three of four games in the final week of the season last year came in Under.
Update/Correction: All four games in week 10 last year came in Under.


So last night we had a season-long heavy trend on the Over that was due for regression, and a 3-1 stat on final week games going Under, and two teams meeting in the playoffs next week who were likely to not play starters and not reveal too much of their current playbook.
And a driving rain storm didn't hurt either.

When looking for an Under to play in this week's four game card last night's graded out the strongest. That's why I took it.
And that's why it's probably my last play of the week. I'm not going to give the unit back on a lesser play.

I will update the polls in case anyone's playing these games this week. If you are, remember to give an edge to the Unders and remember that all four Favs lost in the final week last season (St Louis was the Fav last night and they won.)
Dogs and Unders might be the way to go.

Today's poll:
Hou 5, Mich 5
Ov 3, Un 4
No real edges there to exploit.

The three guys with the worst records all like Houston and the Under today. Another reason for no play for me today, like I said, I lean towards Dogs and Unders this week but I'm not about to make the same play as the three worst guys out there.
Only one game on the WNBA card, I have nothing there.
Have an interest in the NBA game though so that's where my phone will come from today.

Good luck to all with your picks today...

[RBD]

Dog and Under yesterday.

Poll numbers for anyone interested:
Atl 6, SA 1
Ov 5, Un 3

Like yesterday's game when they all agreed with, and were correct for a change, the three worst guys have the same side and total for the morning game, Arlington and Over.

I'll be back with an update on the poll from the late game.
No play for me today.

Mem 2, Birm 5
Ov 2, Un 4

[RBD]

MISTAKE - I did a week cap of 1-0 but that was an article pick, shouldn't have been included here.
Forum record 11-8, not 12-8.

I track a lot of numbers, ain a lot of sports, a lot of trends, a lot of systems. I make mistakes. It's inevitable.
But I always correct them when I see them.