UFL Week One

[RBD]

Season starts tonight.
I have no stats to rely on, I don't handicap it like I do football and basketball.
But it's been toooo loooong since I've had action on a football game so I'll be playing something tonight.

When I figure out what, I'll post it here after I try and figure out which way to go.

[RBD]

Looked over my UFL from last season, articles and Forum combined I finished at 14-13.
In other words, with juice, break even.
Not good but it hits my #1 goal of not losing money.

And it's kind of remarkable that I didn't lose money since I didn't have any of my standard handicapping tools for picking Wrong Favorites or totals.

I used the "Fade the 'Cappers" method.
Each week I charted approximately 10 different guys who gave out their picks on websites or videos and just Faded the teams that got the most picks.

Wanted to use it again this season but, there's a problem.
Last year I had at least 8 to 10 guys on the weekly chart.
This season, almost every one of them is gone.
Only one of the guys that I used regularly posted a video and he doesn't give spreads.
Just another sign that this league is in trouble and people are losing interest.

So I'm just a dart thrower today.

Tonight's game is Birmingham -5', 42'.

I looked at last year's Week 1 schedule.
The winning teams won by 25, 24, 14, and 7.
Every one of those is more than tonight's spread of 5.
The totals were 37, 42, 38 and 29.
Every one of them is fewer than tonight's spread of 42'.

I'm going to check the line at a couple of my books.
I'll be back with the spreads I buy.
WHATEVER I buy it will be for a very small unit, strictly TV rooting interest size wager.

Good luck to any other knuckleheads out there betting this game, too.

Update: I bought the numbers at the first one of our sponsors I checked.

Birmingham -5
Birmingham Un 43

[RBD]

Recap 1 - 1
Record 1-1

Took the dog and the under in the morning game today.
St Louis + 4, under 44

[RBD]

Final score, St Louis 16, Defenders 10.

And that's where my week ends.
At 3-1 I escape the first week with a profit.

They're small betting units, so shutting down for the week is not a financial decision. It's one based on discipline.
A lack of discipline is one of the major reasons most sports bettors lose.
Practicing solid principles of discipline is always a smart move, regardless of wager size.

No more bets for me.
I managed to scratch the bothersome itch caused by no football action in three months, and got away without any damage.

How would my week have turned out if I kept going?
In the Saturday afternoon game I would have bet Houston +5, but for reasons of nostalgia - my favorite football team of all time was the Houston Gamblers with Mouse Davis calling plays using five wide receiver sets in the run and shoot offense, with Jim Kelly at the helm.
But nostalgia is NOT a reason to bet.

Despite the new rule changes designed to increase scoring both of the first two games have stayed Under.
The first game by 15.
The second game by 18.

This would make me lean towards the Under again until it misses, but the total on the third game is lower then the first two and I was leaning to the Over 38.

Regardless, I'm done for the week.
As always, good luck to anyone else crazy enough to bet this stuff.

[RBD]

Good move laying off the late game and locking up the profit from the earlier games. I would have had a split and lost a little juice.

Same thing today. I'll take the 3-1 week and shut it down until week two.

Had I played today's game, I would have been on Orlando -1, for reasonings as ridiculous as yesterday's nostalgia pick on Houston - the Columbus Aviators is a stupid name.

I get it, the connection, Ohio, the Wright brothers, but a football team should have a fierce nickname, like the Battle Hawks for example.
Or The Storm.

Good luck to anyone playing this one tonight.