Who needs to do what in the next week+?

[FlyersFan]

A tricky "science" this predicting is, and all of this can change in a day, two days. Conference tourneys this year though actually shouldn't have much of an effect at all with regard to "bid stealing". Conf USA (Memphis), the Horizon (Butler), and the Missouri Valley (Drake) are the only conferences where you can guarantee those parenthetical teams are going regardless. The Atlantic 10 could have a surprise, but it would probably come at the hands of one of its own teams in the end, same applies to the Mountain West in all liklihood, IMHO. Other possible trouble makers could be the Sun Belt with South Alabama losing in a final to Western Kentucky and the Mid American with Kent State losing in a final to Akron. I base things off RPI and SOS, non-conference RPI and SOS, conference record, Top 50 wins, Top 100 wins, and last 10 games..... Here's what I got:

One bid conferences no matter what happens in conference tourney: (17)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy League, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, WAC

Likely one bid conferences but "bid stealer" possibilities: (5)
Conference USA - Memphis (definitely in)
Horizon - Butler (definitely in)
Mid American - Kent State (could maybe get in with loss to Akron in conference final)
Missouri Valley - Drake (definitely in)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (could maybe get in with loss to Western Kentucky in conference final)

-------------> (22 bids)

Numbers are (RPI/SOS)
*** Teams in bold are in no matter what IMHO and those not are fringe teams still with work to do.
ACC (5) - North Carolina (3/4), Duke (4/8), Clemson (23/26), Miami (25/34), Maryland (65/16)
A-10 (3) - Xavier (6/18), Massachusetts (32/28), Saint Josephs (54/89)
BE (7) - Georgetown (7/42), Connecticut (12/13), Louisville (15/17), Notre Dame (21/73), Marquette (17/25), Pittsburgh (20/33), West Virginia (36/43)
B10 (5) - Wisconsin (14/51), Indiana (19/76), Purdue (29/85), Michigan State (13/52), Ohio State (48/49)
B12 (6) - Texas (5/3), Kansas (8/60), Kansas State (39/35), Oklahoma (28/6), Baylor (37/32), Texas A&M (44/77)
P10 (6) - UCLA (9/38), Stanford (22/105), Washington State (24/57), Arizona (16/1), USC (40/21), Arizona State (71/78)
SEC (4) - Tennessee (1/2), Vanderbilt (10/50), Mississippi State (41/53), Arkansas (38/45)
WCC (2) - Saint Marys (31/142), Gonzaga (35/96)
MWC (2) - BYU (27/92), UNLV (34/82)

THAT GROUP EQUATES TO 40 MORE BIDS, SO I HAVE THREE SPOTS LEFT:

1- One of Villanova or Syracuse will get one, IMHO prob Villanova
2- Another SEC school will get in, sadly maybe Kentucky
3- Southern Illinois is going to win the the MWC tourney I think and even if they don't their RPI-SOS is (50/10) and non-conference RPI-SOS is (54/4). They are very deserving.

Makes (65)

TEAMS LEFT OUT AND WHY:
Wake Forest - 3 Top 50 wins, but low numbers (67/95 conf) and (82/162 non conf)
Virginia Tech - 0 Top 50 wins... goodnight.
Dayton - If they win out they get to 8-8 in the A-10 and that just won't cut it no matetr how good their numbers are.
Rhode Island - Lost 3 in a row and really just played themselves out on their own.
Syracuse - 2-9 vs Top 50, 5 Top 100 wins. Deserve to be there, but won't even with (46/14 conf) and (32/19 non conf).
Oregon - Lost 8 of last 11 games and only 6-9 in conf. (57/9 conf) good, but (66/152 non conf) not.
Florida - Only one Top 50 win and only 3 Top 100 wins. (59/117 conf) and (99/202) are not good and awful.
Kentucky - Hard to deny, 3 Top 50 wins but no wins vs 51-100. (64/20 conf) and (203/97 non conf) not enough even at 9-3 SEC.
Mississippi - 4-8 in conference, goodnight. Even with 5 Top 50 wins, that's brutal.
Houston - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 2 Top 100 wins and 18-0 against teams ranked 200-330. AKA -YOU SUCK.
UAB - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 4 Top 100 wins, needed that win over Memphis.
New Mexico - 0 Top 50 wins, adios.

:thumbs:

cuse- good stuff...:thumbs:....my thoughts are

1) KENTST is in after the STMARYS win yesterday (barring a complete breakdown). Can't put STMARYS in and not them after that.

2) OlePIss isn't dead yet......I think MISSST, Vandy, Tennessee are solid then 1-2 more coming from ARK, KY and OlePiss. OlePiss is on the way out the door but i don't think they are completely dead yet.

3) UNLV doesn't have a signature win on their schedule other than the BYU win at home, and they turned around and were blasted by 30+ on the road at BYU which kind of negates the luster on that first win. They may have played a tough schedule but they didn't beat anyone. They need to get to the finals of their conference tourney, IMO, to be safe. And if somebody other than themselves and BYU win that tourney they won't get in, as that conference no fking way deserves 3 teams.

4) pretty much agree on everyone being left out and the whys.

[FlyersFan]

is it me or are we usually trying to eliminate teams at this point and it seems like we are having a hard time finding 34 quality at-large teams.

[wsox08]

is it me or are we usually trying to eliminate teams at this point and it seems like we are having a hard time finding 34 quality at-large teams.

agreed

I think the Cuse might slip in but not sure about Maryland..

edit: MD is a definite bubble, but they were in right after they beat UNC, but have slipped recently.

[CuseFan10]

1) KENTST is in after the STMARYS win yesterday (barring a complete breakdown). Can't put STMARYS in and not them after that.

2) OlePIss isn't dead yet......I think MISSST, Vandy, Tennessee are solid then 1-2 more coming from ARK, KY and OlePiss. OlePiss is on the way out the door but i don't think they are completely dead yet.

The MAC is not getting an at large bid unless Kent State does something really impressive. I'm not sure when they last time the MAC got an at large, maybe 3 years ago? Maybe more? I could be wrong. That conference is pretty bad over the last few years. I just don't think that MAC gets, or deserves, any respect nationally but I see your point.

As for Ole Miss, they have only won two of their last 9 against D1-A teams, one win mixed in came against Presbyterian. They are most likely going to lose at Kentucky in basically an elimination game if you ask me on Wednesday and be 4-9 in conference play. Even if they swept their last three, they are still only 7-9 in the SEC so I don't know....

UNLV and BYU have great numbers, but yea not many quality wins. I just think they both end of getting in, but that's easily debatable.

[bookiekilla]

Pencil in the Jackets for the ACC.....GT's gonna with the ACC tourney:hide:









































































































































:bang:

[FlyersFan]

The MAC is not getting an at large bid unless Kent State does something really impressive. I'm not sure when they last time the MAC got an at large, maybe 3 years ago? Maybe more? I could be wrong. That conference is pretty bad over the last few years. I just don't think that MAC gets, or deserves, any respect nationally but I see your point.

As for Ole Miss, they have only won two of their last 9 against D1-A teams, one win mixed in came against Presbyterian. They are most likely going to lose at Kentucky in basically an elimination game if you ask me on Wednesday and be 4-9 in conference play. Even if they swept their last three, they are still only 7-9 in the SEC so I don't know....

UNLV and BYU have great numbers, but yea not many quality wins. I just think they both end of getting in, but that's easily debatable.

cuse- KENTST (RPI of 29) is certainly no steamroller to make the tourney but if they have a good showing in the conference tourney and finish strong, they are going to be strongly considered. Road win at STMARYS is a pretty good win this time of the year and certainly will carry at least a little bit of weight.

and on OlePiss....they aren't dead that was my point. They have a rematch with ARK and in all honesty, their resume is more impressive than ARK is. ARK didn't beat anyone and got smoked by 20 at Tennessee whereas OlePiss lost by 2 and had the lead by 5 points with 1 to go and choked it away. They need to win at either UGA or KY and then win at home vs. ARK and Auburn i believe it is. At that point they probably need to make the conference semis, but if they can do that, they will be in IMO. Wins over CLEM, MISSST, ARK and VANDY and a close close loss at TENN are in their favor (if they beat ARK next week)...but bad finish isn't. That's why they need to win a couple in the SEC tourney and beating a Vandy or MissState again would help.

[Daws1089]

what about if a team like gmu or unc-w were to win the caa tourney? vcu out?

[FlyersFan]

what about if a team like gmu or unc-w were to win the caa tourney? vcu out?

not likely they make it IMO at least. RPI of 51 and SOS of 140 and only 3 wins over top100 teams and 15 over teams 200+. Not to mention there are a lot of other teams ahead of them like SIU, UMASS etc....who have better RPI and SOS#'s and more wins over the top100. I think it is going to be a stretch for them to get in. League just isn't all that great this year, IMO.

[CuseFan10]

what about if a team like gmu or unc-w were to win the caa tourney? vcu out?

The CAA has not shot at an at large this year. VCU is not getting in over teams like South Alabama, Davidson, or Drake/Butler if those teams happen to trip up in their conference tourneys.


FF- I totally forgot about Davidson. They could be another "bid stealer" if they somehow lose in that tourney. 4 of their losses are against Top 10 teams or something ridiculous and they carry tons of respect nationally, and have a stud player in Curry..

[BoilerBacker]

I think Purdue and East Central are definitely in. South Carolina Up the Coast has a shot as well as Fargo Tech.

A10: I think X, Mass and St Joe will get in. RI and Dayton have sucked ass lately. Dayton only one real quality win v Louisville and bad losses to Rich, GW and LaSalle. RI lost 5/6 including 3 vs. the teams that I think make it in.

CUSA: Sucky conference. Only a UAB run to the Championship game gives them an outside chance.

MAC: I think Kent State is in unless they lose out. 29th in RPI and good (6-3) vs. top 100.

MtnWest: UNLV, BYU and NMex are in I think. NMex has won 5 in a row and play the other two next so it might get tricky for them if they lose both especially since they are both home games. I think they win at least one of them.

Big Ten: Buckeyes must take 2 of 3 from IU, Mich State and Purdue and get to semis of Big 10 Tourney. No quality wins since December.

I dont think Vill has a shot even if they win tonight. They will probably lose to Louisville, and I would not be surprised to see them lose at Prov. Then they will have a tough go in the Big East tournament as a 9 seed playing a tough opener.

[FlyersFan]

NMex are in I think..

wow...have to seriously say no way, IMO. RPI of 47, SOS of 150, 0-3 vs. top 50, 16 wins over 200+ RPI teams.....i think they have a ton of work to do.

NIT-eyes are done. They don't play well together at all anyway. Everybody trying to flack up the worst shot the quickest. I can't find a quality win in all honesty on their schedule other than SYR who is a bubble team themselves. 0-4 vs. MSU, PUR, WIS and IU so far and make it 0-5 after tomorrow. They would only waste a spot anyway with a first round L.

[BoilerBacker]

wow...have to seriously say no way, IMO. RPI of 47, SOS of 150, 0-3 vs. top 50, 16 wins over 200+ RPI teams.....i think they have a ton of work to do.

NIT-eyes are done. They don't play well together at all anyway. Everybody trying to flack up the worst shot the quickest. I can't find a quality win in all honesty on their schedule other than SYR who is a bubble team themselves. 0-4 vs. MSU, PUR, WIS and IU so far and make it 0-5 after tomorrow. They would only waste a spot anyway with a first round L.

I think one win vs. BYU or UNLV helps them and I actually think they will win both. That will put them no worse than 2nd in the conference.

[CuseFan10]

MtnWest: UNLV, BYU and NMex are in I think. NMex has won 5 in a row and play the other two next so it might get tricky for them if they lose both especially since they are both home games. I think they win at least one of them.

Big Ten: Buckeyes must take 2 of 3 from IU, Mich State and Purdue and get to semis of Big 10 Tourney. No quality wins since December.

Isn't that a serious contradiction considering New Mexico has 0 Top 50 wins, BB??? You're penalizing one team for having no quality wins since December, yet the other has no quality wins since last season. Neither team deserves to be, IMHO.

:dunno:

[FlyersFan]

(new mexico) I think one win vs. BYU or UNLV helps them and I actually think they will win both. That will put them no worse than 2nd in the conference.

:lost: :flush:


not a chance in h-e double toothpicks after losing at home to BYU........i still would like to know what UNLV has done to earn a trip to the tourney. Their conference RPI is 9 and it's below the MVC. SIU belongs in before UNLV especially after the win at Bradley.


i mean seriously...that is an NCAA tourney team. Go out and beat up on a bunch of **** out of league and in your league.........you lose by 20 to a LOU team that was playing awful at the time, lose to freeking UCSB, lose to Arizona on your home floor where you get every stinking call usually....:dunno:.......that's a joke. They have one win that would even qualify as halfway decent and that is BYU, then they turn around and lose by 40 at BYU. New Mexico is NIT bound, so that's not so great. I think there are a lot more deserving teams than UNLV hanging around the bubble.


Fri, Nov 9 Montana St. W 76-65 -- --
Tue, Nov 13 Dixie St. W 97-66 -- --
Sat, Nov 17 at San Diego W 66-55 -- --
Wed, Nov 21 (6) Louisville L 48-68 -- --
Sat, Nov 24 Nevada W 79-67 -- --
Tue, Nov 27 at UCSB L 60-63 -- --
Sat, Dec 1 UTEP W 84-71 -- --
Wed, Dec 5 at Northern Arizona W 83-74 -- --
Sat, Dec 8 Fresno St. W 84-71 -- --
Wed, Dec 19 (19) Arizona L 49-52 -- --
Sat, Dec 22 Tenn-Martin W 74-48 -- --
Fri, Dec 28 Kennesaw St. W 78-55 -- --
Sat, Dec 29 Nicholls St. W 64-42 -- --
Sun, Dec 30 Minnesota W 81-64 -- --
Sat, Jan 5 at Colorado St. W 65-62 -- --
Sat, Jan 12 at Air Force L 53-65 -- --
Tue, Jan 15 BYU W 70-41 -- --
Wed, Jan 23 Wyoming W 78-71 -- --
Sat, Jan 26 at San Diego St. W 72-69 -- --
Wed, Jan 30 at TCU W 70-58 -- --
Sat, Feb 2 New Mexico W 79-60 -- --
Wed, Feb 6 at Utah L 73-81 -- --
Sat, Feb 9 Colorado St. W 68-51 -- --
Tue, Feb 12 Air Force W 58-51 -- --
Sat, Feb 16 at BYU L 48-74 -- --
Sat, Feb 23 at Wyoming W 73-65

[dananderson32]

:lost: :flush:


not a chance in h-e double toothpicks after losing at home to BYU........i still would like to know what UNLV has done to earn a trip to the tourney. Their conference RPI is 9 and it's below the MVC. SIU belongs in before UNLV especially after the win at Bradley.


i mean seriously...that is an NCAA tourney team. Go out and beat up on a bunch of **** out of league and in your league.........you lose by 20 to a LOU team that was playing awful at the time, lose to freeking UCSB, lose to Arizona on your home floor where you get every stinking call usually....:dunno:.......that's a joke. They have one win that would even qualify as halfway decent and that is BYU, then they turn around and lose by 40 at BYU. New Mexico is NIT bound, so that's not so great. I think there are a lot more deserving teams than UNLV hanging around the bubble.


Fri, Nov 9 Montana St. W 76-65 -- --
Tue, Nov 13 Dixie St. W 97-66 -- --
Sat, Nov 17 at San Diego W 66-55 -- --
Wed, Nov 21 (6) Louisville L 48-68 -- --
Sat, Nov 24 Nevada W 79-67 -- --
Tue, Nov 27 at UCSB L 60-63 -- --
Sat, Dec 1 UTEP W 84-71 -- --
Wed, Dec 5 at Northern Arizona W 83-74 -- --
Sat, Dec 8 Fresno St. W 84-71 -- --
Wed, Dec 19 (19) Arizona L 49-52 -- --
Sat, Dec 22 Tenn-Martin W 74-48 -- --
Fri, Dec 28 Kennesaw St. W 78-55 -- --
Sat, Dec 29 Nicholls St. W 64-42 -- --
Sun, Dec 30 Minnesota W 81-64 -- --
Sat, Jan 5 at Colorado St. W 65-62 -- --
Sat, Jan 12 at Air Force L 53-65 -- --
Tue, Jan 15 BYU W 70-41 -- --
Wed, Jan 23 Wyoming W 78-71 -- --
Sat, Jan 26 at San Diego St. W 72-69 -- --
Wed, Jan 30 at TCU W 70-58 -- --
Sat, Feb 2 New Mexico W 79-60 -- --
Wed, Feb 6 at Utah L 73-81 -- --
Sat, Feb 9 Colorado St. W 68-51 -- --
Tue, Feb 12 Air Force W 58-51 -- --
Sat, Feb 16 at BYU L 48-74 -- --
Sat, Feb 23 at Wyoming W 73-65

WAKE FORESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT......... ...oh yeah what about UB? :laughing: vazman wanted me to ask you.......but was afraid to ask you