BIFF'S 1 PLAY - FEB. 28th

Biff_Tannen · 02-28-2008, 06:27 PM

Wsox. I like both those Unders you are on tonight. :thumbs:

I think I might have to hop on board the N. Texas/UL-Laff... even if it isn't my POD.

Now I'm not trying to come off arrogant, I think this board is for helping each other, **** that's why I started taking the time to post my picks. You probably know I preach only a couple bets a day. When I saw wsox's record, it reminded me of something. Early on I figured the more games I pick the better chance I have at winning. I did that until I lost $10,000 over 5 years despite hitting around 54% over that span.

I realized after losing that money that the best thing to do is track the types of wagers you make and in what situations. For example double digit home dogs vs. a ranked opponent. Then see where you do good and where you do bad. Each gambler is just like a team they bet on. They are good in certain situations and bad in others... and this usually remains constant over time. It is also the reason that teams will always be drawn towards the 50% mark ATS and O/U. Law of averages. The more bets you make the more likely you are to drift towards 50%. I'm sure you are all well aware, 50% doesn't make money. Mainly, you should track yourself because the sports books do. Don't you want to know what they know? Eventually you can turn these findings into a system and save time each day.

I eliminated the situations that I was bad in, starting making 5 or less picks each day, and I've been around 60% ever since... not to mention way more consistent. Sure I've had bad days, but since a bad day for me is 0-4, it doesn't hit my bankroll too hard. Now believe me when I say this, that with the wealth of technology these days it is proven to be easier to go 0-4 than 4-0. With that in mind, to me it makes no sense to bet a lot of games each day, in fact I try and limit myself to 1-2, but with basketball I place smaller bets and try to stay around 2-3. For each extra game you bet, the gap increases. For example the chance of going say 8-0 is way less than going 0-8. This is why the books will always make money on teasers and parlays.

I'm not claiming divine knowledge, I'm just trying to spread experiences that worked for me. I'm a libertarian, I want to help everyone bring down the man. I figure if we are going to live in a capitalist economy, I might as well get as much bang for my buck as possible, and spend the least amount of time possible getting it. So I sell real estate, which is just stupid how much I make for how little I really do... and I bet sports which is more like a hobby I get paid for, but it's an addictive hobby that takes extreme discipline. Otherwise you will be ruined by it, just like smoking, boozing, or doing drugs. So, for what it's worth... best of luck. :thumbs:

02-28-2008, 06:21 PM

BIFF - GL tonight - great pick last night.. Didn't watch the game but saw the win and then the highlights on ESPN this morning - looks like it was close until MEMO (okfur) started draining threes! :)

AZ -5 albiet road team is 6-2 ATS in last 8 head=to=head... What about over 134??? OVER is 20-7 in USC last 27 in PAC-10, Over is 38-17-1 in last 56 in AZ on thur night)

MICH St +6 risky - WISC playing well lately - albiet Mich St Seniors remember last years 13 pt loss at Wisco..Mich St with 1 more day to prepare.. What About UNDER 124 with both teams doing well defensively (Wisc AVG 67off/59def to MichSt 65off/60Def) See a 58-61 game perhaps...

:beerbang:

wsox08 · 02-28-2008, 05:48 PM

I really like the under, but obviously you can see I haven't done well this year so it's your call :laughing:

BIFF'S 1 PLAY - FEB. 28th

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