Saturday Discussion

[FlyersFan]

i kind of thought this line would come here and it has....

michigan -1.........this game means far more to Michigan. Wisconsin is a virtual lock for the tourney but michigan is on the outside looking in. They beat OSU at home but that was without turner and other than that they have home losses to MSU and NWU (who they were swept by). This IS their season IMO. Wisky off of a big home win and winners of 4 of L5 i believe. Good let down spot for michigan and i think michigan 1H might be a good play here.

[Nigel Tufnel]

UD/X should be a good one tomorrow. UD needs the win more than X...but X needs this one pretty badly too. X has a nice RPI and had a tough out of conference schedule...none of their 6 losses would be considered bad losses for tourney resume purposes (Marq, Baylor, @ Kstate, @ Butler and @ Temple) All of the losses were close, with the exception of @ KState. At the same time, X doesn't have a lot of quality wins and they don't have a quality road win. A win @ UD would give them that and probably come close to guaranteeing an NCAA bid unless they have a complete meltdown down the stretch. UD, well, with a loss, X could possibly be putting the nail in their coffin for an NCAA tourney bid unless they win the automatic bid, which I don't see Dayton being able to do away from home.

The atmosphere tomorrow will be electric and UD will definitely have a huge home court advantage, but I don't see X getting too rattled. They've played @ Butler and @ KState, so they have been in some hostile environments this year.

UD absolutely crushed X on the boards @ Xavier earlier in the year. UD just couldn't put the ball in the basket enough and Crawford hit some pretty incredible circus shots near the end to seal the win. I don't think X will get dominated on the boards tomorrow like the first meeting, but I also expect Dayton to shoot well at home.

I don't think X has any business being favored in this game regardless of each teams' performance of late. If the line is a pick or Dayton is getting points, I think its undeniable that there is value in backing Dayton.

On the other hand, if its a close game, X has two advantages over Dayton which could make the difference....1) X is a better free throw shooting team; and 2) Jordan Crawford. Crawford has really been playing at a high level lately. He has really started to gel with his teammates and is a much less selfish player. He will be the only guy on the court tomorrow that can single handedly take the game over.

Interesting note for this game: This will be Chris Mack's first trip to UD Arena. If being X's head coach isn't enough for the UD fans to hate him, back when he played at Evansville, Evansville played @ UD Arena. Evansville head coach Jim Crews told Mack that when he inbounded the ball after a made hoop by UD and UD was pressing, if Mack couldn't find anyone open, he was to throw the ball off the face of the UD player guarding the inbounds pass. Mack did it not once, but twice and the second time it bloodied Wes Coffey's nose. There was a small scrap because of it. Mack did later send a letter of apology to Wes Coffey and he subsequently transferred to X to get away from Crews. Either way, the Flyer faithful will be brutal towards him tomorrow.

[FlyersFan]

probably the 2 biggest teams in need of a quality win are the 2 you guys have mentioned....DAY and ILL

MSU may be without Lucas as mentioned but ILL just stinks. They have yet to really beat anyone of quality this year in the big10 and other than the win @ Clemson with that miracle comeback, they haven't done much period. They are squarely on the bubble and if they can't win these games at home they are NIT bound. MSU off a loss @ Wisky so you know there will be focus from them. Tough game to call line wise especially with the quesiton of lucas being out. Wouldn't be surprised to see NL on this game this afternoon.

DAY needs to beat X. If you can't take care of business in your own conference at home, good luck getting into the tourney. Already lost to URI at home. Would like to hear from Nigel and Franchise on this one. I would expect a very tight line reflecting a very tight game. This is a 2 possession game at most IMO. My guess is DAY -2.

[Nicky Santoro]

Franchise, I as well like the Nova play. One game I'm going to lean heavy on is DePaul at UCONN. Both teams are on an o-fer on the road and both are playing bad basketball. The Demons have covered their last 5 games going 5-4-1 ATS the last 10. Only 1-9 SU during those 10 games shooting just 39% and going 56% from the line the entire season. They suck and have nothing to play for with a record of 8-14. The Huskies aren't very good either, except at home they are 11-2 but not reliable ATS going 5-7. This game is huge for the Huskies IMO, they need a statement game and give a good ass kicking to a team they should pound on. I look for the number to be around 14-16 and I would lay that with UCONN. They need a strong win here, not a close one. Lose or come close to a loss against a weak team would hurt their tourney bid. I know it's still early but they need it now.

This may be a tough game to cap but I think this game will be a good one to watch. San Diego St. going to New Mexico where the Lobos have gone 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games and 9-3-1 their last 13. This is a team to watch in the tourney. The Aztecs however pose a problem, they beat the Lobo's at their home floor by 10. Different envoirment for Saturday though. NM beats their opponents by a average margin of 14 @home. They are looking for payback. A SU record of 20-3 is impressive and they should win at home, the spread is another thing. The Aztecs are not a bad team and shoot well on the road (45%). Everything looks tight on paper except PF and PA. I think the spread will be around 10-12. If that's the case I'll take SDST and the double digit points. Anything in single digits I'll take the Lobo's minus. A real good game for TV. I hope it's on.

[COACH DITKA]

This thread made me quickly glance at tomorrow's slate and I believe 'Nova and GTown is the only Top 25 matchup. Even though they are down this year, Memphis hosting Gonzaga could be a pretty interesting non-conference game. I'm looking forward to the IL-MSU game for obv reasons (College Gameday crew will be there - graduated 2 years too early I guess) but even w/Lucas out or definitely less than 100%, I'm still worried the Illini fall flat on their faces even though they need this game badly as it's a start to a brutal 8 game finish to the B10 schedule.

I'm sure more will catch my eye later.

[Franchise]

Figured we might as well get this started today even though I won't get a chance to go through the card more thoroughly till later tonight. A couple of games that caught my eye at first glance

Villanova ML vs GT - Hoyas are playing very efficient ball right now and I have some concern about them just pounding Villanova inside but that hasn't been an issue for Villanova all year. And I think on the other end Villanova has the individual talents to break down the GT defense and create open shots. And Villanova has plenty of shooters to make you pay, it isn't like they will all have bad games.

UNLV -pts at home vs BYU - BYU hasn't been dominating on the road and this will be a huge game for UNLV's season. I expect them to bring their A game after a few less than stellar outings.

Arkansas -pts vs Auburn - I don't expect Arkansas to be laying too many but they should be feeling confident with their recent play and try and keep pace in the division race. An at large is probably not realistic but they may not think that yet. Auburn is very streaky with all their 3's but Arkansas has really stepped up the D of late.

Should have some more opinions later.