Saturday Discussion

[Giraldo5]

Nice advice there Nigel. In CUSA action I like SMU tcover pretty easily over Tulane. Thought on Gonzaga +5 at Memphis. I know Memphis is a tough place to play and the cross-country trip for the Zags but it seems like the spread should be 2 or 3 and not 5. Thoughts?

[Franchise]

:thx:

[Nigel Tufnel]

For me I am starting my card with this list today

Dayton - Nigel helped convince me. They have a few losses but the losses are better than most teams have, must win and bitter rival. If this isn't one of their 3-4 best games of the year against a team that has a relatively comfortable tourney spot they will probably be worth fading the rest of the season.

:laughing: This has to be first....a Xavier fanatic convincing a Flyer fanatic to bet on the Flyers at home. Never thought I'd see the day.

GL!! Hope you win em all but one.

[Nicky Santoro]

Guessed right on the spread of my 2 plays, really like the Lobos -7 today.

[Franchise]

For me I am starting my card with this list today

Dayton - Nigel helped convince me. They have a few losses but the losses are better than most teams have, must win and bitter rival. If this isn't one of their 3-4 best games of the year against a team that has a relatively comfortable tourney spot they will probably be worth fading the rest of the season.

Michigan - After playing them and having them take a dump vs NU last week I thought they were terrible how they laid down for a 15-2 run. But after looking at it more closely they have played all right at home and if they can bother the Wisconsin shooters I think they also have a nice chance at victory. Wisconsin also in a nice let down spot.

Illinois - No Kailin Lucas = Less consistency on offense. MSU struggles for stretches on offense with him and without him they could have some real problems. Especially against an amped up Illini team in front of their biggest crowd of the season.

NM - Rested team with revenge in a place where they have a ridiculous ATS record the last few years. SDST also hasn't been lights out on the road.

UNLV - I like the spot for them and they play much better at home. Plus BYU is due to drop another one.

Next tier
Duke/BC Under - Both teams play better D in this scenario (home/road). I also suspect Duke may come out a little slow after their travel and not really knocking down their shots.

Providence - A team that is starting to play better and really hung with Syracuse for a half last week. Have been much stronger at home (like most) and marquette has been playing fairly decent ball for a nice stretch. It seems as if they are due to throw a clunker in there and where better than @ Providence.

Both the Florida and arkansas games became no plays for me with the line movement against what I expected. I like how Arkansas is playing but that drop of a point so fast concerns me enough to find better games.

Other games that interest me a little
Memphis - Suprised that they were favored by this much, although the travel may be an issue for Gonzaga after a late one Thursday. I just haven't been very impressed by Memphis of late but maybe they step it up in this spot with a chance to improve their at-large chances.

UCLA - Considering their defensive ability against a Cal team that is talented but has no heart.

[TheBeholdah]

honestly.....am i really thrilled about backing michigan tomorrow..no......are they more than capable of winning this game and do they need it far more than wisky...yes which is what will put me on them most likely....

amen :toast: dayton is a pretty similar play

[FlyersFan]

honestly.....am i really thrilled about backing michigan tomorrow..no......are they more than capable of winning this game and do they need it far more than wisky...yes which is what will put me on them most likely....

[TheBeholdah]

i agree with everything you said except rolling with BAD teams in good spots. I'll take a slightly below average team in a good spot, ive been trying to avoid taking bad teams. michigan isnt bad, theyre a little below average. LSU, toledo, etc are bad teams..

but i just nitpicked the **** out of your post :laughing:

[FlyersFan]

i really dont think much of michigan and dont really want to backthem, but you are correct. this is pretty much an auto play. i mite first half it with ya if you think thats way to go. get it over with and dont have to worry about them ****ting the bed

honestly, CBB isn't really all about thinking much of teams. Not every team plays well or not well every game. I think that spots are as much of making plays as anything. Sometimes you roll with bad teams in good spots. I am not necessarily a big fan of DAY but i will probably be on them in that spot tomorrow.

I mean even LSU covers a game at home every now and then...lol...:hide:

and honestly look at what Wisconsin has done without Leuer....almost lost at home to Penn State.....could have lost at home to Michigan 2 weeks ago in sqeuaking out a 6 point win...they got demolished at OSU.....some ass clown hit 200 3's versus purdue or they wouldn't have been in that one.

[TheBeholdah]

i really dont think much of michigan and dont really want to backthem, but you are correct. this is pretty much an auto play. i mite first half it with ya if you think thats way to go. get it over with and dont have to worry about them ****ting the bed

[FlyersFan]

Michigan vs. wisconsin

Tough spot for wiscy coming off the big win over msu. michigan gave them a run for their money at the kohl center already, i dont think michigans too good at all a good spot for them at home here

.

posted similar thoughts above. that pretty much has to be an auto play IMO. No value in Wisky on the road. Michigan owns big 10 wins over Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and a Turnerless rudderless buckeye team in early January. They need a marquee win badly. Good 1H letdown spot as well. I almost like michigan 1H @ PK the best.

[TheBeholdah]

Michigan vs. wisconsin

Tough spot for wiscy coming off the big win over msu. michigan gave them a run for their money at the kohl center already, i dont think michigans too good at all a good spot for them at home here

Boston College+9 vs, duke

surprised to see duke laying so many points on the road considering how shakey theyve been on the road

Kentucky-12.5 at lsu

Kentucky should demolish this team, wont take them lightly after seeing tennessee almost blow it against them. just a complete mismatch

Marshall-14.5 vs. eastern carolina

Marshall has lost 5 str8 to quality teams, should be hungry for a win here. east car got handled pretty easily at home these last two games by fellow conference celler dwellars, cant see them hangin around too long on the road vs. a superior and hungry team

New Mexico St-4.5 vs. san jose st

what gives with this line, the aggies are pretty solid, they beat a solid la tech on the road by 14 last time out and have revenge here having lost at san jose last week. the spartans burned me last night by hangin in there at la tech but seems like theyre getting too much respect on the road

Hawaii-1 vs. fresno

Paull eorge is still doubtful for this game. fresno has lost by 15 and 17 in their last two games at idaho and at boise. I caught the 2nd half of the hawaii game at nevada last week and was pretty impressed the way they took nevada down to the wire.

Denver-6 vs. fla atl

Denver might be the most predictable team in college basketball. Fade them on the road and cash your ticket, bet on them at home and cash your ticket, wish i had taken advantage of this as ive backed out of fading them on the road each time. that said, i dont know if im definately going to back them here, but theyre always worth a look at home.

[FlyersFan]

also initial leans to the following. tough until tomorrow AM to have a for sure set:

UAZ +1 @Worthlessington State

INDST +7 1H @ Wichy Woman (let down spot)

[FlyersFan]

probably the 2 biggest teams in need of a quality win are the 2 you guys have mentioned....DAY and ILL

MSU may be without Lucas as mentioned but ILL just stinks. They have yet to really beat anyone of quality this year in the big10 and other than the win @ Clemson with that miracle comeback, they haven't done much period. They are squarely on the bubble and if they can't win these games at home they are NIT bound. MSU off a loss @ Wisky so you know there will be focus from them. Tough game to call line wise especially with the quesiton of lucas being out. Wouldn't be surprised to see NL on this game this afternoon.

DAY needs to beat X. If you can't take care of business in your own conference at home, good luck getting into the tourney. Already lost to URI at home. Would like to hear from Nigel and Franchise on this one. I would expect a very tight line reflecting a very tight game. This is a 2 possession game at most IMO. My guess is DAY -2.

-2 right now at most books.......:beerbang::beerbang:...fkn im the man....

[FlyersFan]

also don't do this often but i like CAL tomorrow at least on the ML. I haven't done this all year but i may add them on the ML paraly which goes against my #1 rule.

But (a) revenge game (b) Cal off of b2b lossses now and really in need of a win (c) ucla got their win for the weekend and is still beatable (d) i have been right on UCLA 5 straight games now...lol...