Saturday Discussion

[Franchise]

Recap after seeing some of the lines and how I think I am leaning...

MD/Duke - Flyers I'm with you and I am leaning Maryland at this number. I think it's about right based on how duke has taken apart teams by DD at home and the fact that Maryland hasn't really beaten many good teams. But I think the extra rest will help Maryland and the fact that they got destroyed here two years ago. I expect a tight defensive game and if Maryland can knock down some shots and defend the big 3 it should be close. Duke has been able to pull away late in some of their last few games while not dominating throughout. I think Maryland can hang with them based on their balanced and disciplined offense.

OK/OSU - This line seems about right to me due to OU's play on the road which has been for the most part terrible. But since OSU is so one dimensional at times I could see this game going either way. It won't be a play for me.

GMU/ODU - Too many points for me in that matchup in what should be a low scoring game. Can Mason actually score 50?? I don't think I want to try and find out.

USC/UGA - I am 90% on UGA at 2'.

Dayton/SLU - Both numbers look about right to me. I would be surprised to see SLU finish in the 50's with the pace and defense they are facing plus their travel and game planning limitations. I don't see value here.

NCSt/UNC - This might be enough points for me to pull the trigger on St. Without Davis and Zeller UNC is really thinned out inside and NC St should be able to have a field day with all their size. UNC will have to run with their lack of post players and will NC st be able to defend that? If so I think they could zone it up and force UNC to shoot from the outside, which we know is not a winning situation.

UNLV/SD St - Short enough line for me to grab the home team in a game they have to have in a place they have been very tough.

Ark/Bama - I realize Ark is on the road but how the hell is a team playing well grabbing that many points? This looks too good to be true, kind of like Zona and Siena, which way will it go? Alabama has been scuffling for a month while ark is coming into their own. I'll be honest i don't get it.

URI/Temple - I liek URI to bring their A game in a matchup they have to have. Plus no Fernandez is huge and based on Dunphy's comments it looks like he is out. I will probably go ML since I don't think they lose on the last basket.

Xavier/Florida - Yes, Florida has been playing well but Xavier is bigger, rested and the better shooting team. I think they rebound in a big way against a team that doesn't always get after it on defense. Xavier ML for me.

Memphis/Tulsa - tulsa is definitely a play for me. I can't believe the line is this short. Jordan should have a field day. I think Tulsa keeps them out of the lane.

GT/Wake - Wake is a play for me.

USF/Marquette - I like USF with the points. I think Gilchrist will help them keep it close by dominating the paint. Only concern is marquette crushing it from the 3 pt line and getting a big working margin early with hot shooting by an undersized team.

Ut/UK - If UT can slow the pace I like their chances to turn over UK enough to make it a game. UT has improved on D this year and they have the talent to and athleticism to clock the driving lanes and force UK to shoot over them. UK isn't nearly as effective when shooting from the outside. UT also is due for a bounceback after that debacle at Vandy.

[BUNK MORELAND]

south florida is getting 9

AT MARQUETTE

seems like a nice number to grab with THE BULLS ...

I went against them when they traveled to ND as 8 point dogs and was burned . I was burned when P , i , double went down there as 3 pt favs ..


Marquette has won four straight , but 9 points ????

South Florida is 5-6 in the league after starting 0-4 .. They have a few really good wins . They get great guard play from Howard and Jones and that is exactly what you need when taking a road dog like this ..

Lean towads SF + the points

[FlyersFan]

Wanted to get some discussion on a couple of games especially from those of you that have been betting these teams. The lines seem off and i heard a great radio comment by a vegas guy that said how sharp the lines usually are by this time in the season and how hard it is to isolate bad lines because the oddsmaker has such a body of work to go off of. That is why i find it hard to believe that the oddsmaker has made 4-5 point line mistakes in these games (not saying they have, actually saying the oppostie. i thought the lines would be shorter than they are and i can't believe the oddsmaker as i said would make huge line mistakes in these games).

ARK @ ALA.......ALA -6 is just a whack line IMO. And that puts me even squarer on ALA but man i can't help but remember that 20 point halftime collapse (thanks though as i had ole piss in a nice ml parlay) versus ole piss last weekend. They have had a hard time seemingly finishing games. But then again, ARK is due for a letdown/bad game/typical road game game at some point.


OK @ OKST -8....another line that came a lot higher than I thought. Any thoughts of playing OKL are kind of fading as i just don't understand that line. SEems like it's begging for OKL money.

MD @ DUK -9.............kind of high but does this have anyone thinking DUKE because of the line? I leaned MD if i could grab close to DD and this is close to DD.


Also, anyone with any thoughts on UW laying 4 @ Stanford. I lean UW especially with the line and the fact that STAN has been ESCAPING lately in their wins.

[FlyersFan]

Good Luck with the Hawkeyes brother .. :thumbs:

Thanks. Still looking at a bunch of other stuff but couldn't pass up 11 on that game and i can't see that number being bet up. Have done very well this year during conference with the 1H plays. Basically playing the spot and grabbing that many points is worth it i think with Purdue off and incredible performance winning @ msu and a revenge game on deck @ OSU who overcame a 15+ deficit to beat them at Purdue about 3 weeks ago. Depending on what OSU does versus Illinois that game on Wednesday is going to be huge in the standings.

[BUNK MORELAND]

locked in IOWA +11 1H....bad sandwich spot for PUR IMO. OSU on deck and off the huge msu win. IOWA has been competitive for the most part recently.

Good Luck with the Hawkeyes brother .. :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

locked in IOWA +11 1H....bad sandwich spot for PUR IMO. OSU on deck and off the huge msu win. IOWA has been competitive for the most part recently.

[joepa66]

......Kent has a roadie at Buffa-load. The Flashes are running hot winning 8 of their last 10 covering 7 of those. The Bulls are a team going in the other direction. The Flashes are tied with the best record in the MAC and are really starting to click, that's what scares me. I find this a bad spot for Kent. I think Buffalo will be gettin the spot here at home and it may be around 4-6 points. Looking at previous match-ups I expect the public to back the Flashes right off the bat. I may wait for the line to move up even more around game time. I hate going against a hot team but can they make it 9 in a row?? I will even be looking ML here. Just one of those gut feelings I guess. Rodney Pierce will have to lead that offense into a tough Kent defense that been holding shooter to 37% from the field the last 5 games. Ball movement and smart shots will keep the Bulls in contention.

Would like to hear JoePa's take!:thumbs:

I should have never gone against my Viking's the other day.

My Take on "The Game"

Kent State 18-7 (9-2) travels to Buffalo 13-9 (6-5) on Saturday. The Golden Flashes enter the game having won eight straight, a streak that began with an 89-54 win over Buffalo on Jan. 20. Kent State extended the streak on Wednesday with a 76-42 win over Ball State that gave KSU a sweep of the MAC West for a second straight year. Its the first time since the league split into two divisions in 1997-98 that a team has posted back-to-back sweeps of cross divisional play.

The Golden Flashes were led by four players in double figures, including MAC East Co-Player of the Week, Chris Singletary who played just 19 minutes in the game, but continued his stretch of carrying KSU in the second half scoring eight of his 11 points. During the eight game stretch the senior guard is has taken over the second half averaging a team best 8.6 points, shooting 68.8 percent (22-32) from the field and recording a 4.6:1 assist:turnover ratio after halftime. With 1,112 career points, he needs just 10 points to move into 15th place of Kent State’s career scoring list.

Sophomore Justin Greene followed up his 22-point performance against Central Michigan last Saturday with 10 points and 10 rebounds in the win over Ball State on Wednesday night. The double-double is the fourth this season for the Brooklyn, N.Y. product. Greene leads KSU with 13.4 ppg and ranks eighth in the nation with a +11.2 ppg scoring increase from last season.

Buffalo has won two straight after an 84-67 win over Eastern Michigan on Wednesday in which the team shot 66.7 percent. The Bulls leading scorer, Rodney Pierce (19.0 ppg), had 27 points in the win, shooting 11-14 from the field. In the first meeting between KSU & UB, Pierce had just 4 points. I was more impressed with Max Boudreau and Calvin Betts than I was with Pierce.

Pierce has come alive however, especially in his last 6 games scoring 27 vs. EMU 16 vs. UT, 22 vs. CMU, 29 vs. WMU, 17 vs. NIU, 10 vs. BSU and even 17 vs. Ohio. The games where he scored the most we against weaker competition or games where the Bulls were way behind already at halftime like against WMU and Ohio. And you have to consider that in those games against the West, which Kent went 6-0 against, while the Bulls were 3-3. The team shooting percentages against the West were fairly similar. UB shot 56% vs. NIU, WMU 43%, 42% CMU, UT 50% and 67% vs. EMU. Kent shot 52% vs. NIU, 44% WMU, 58% CMU, 54% UT, 43% BSU, and 52% EMU. The Bulls did have a nice win over EMU, but Kent played at EMU and had them down by DDs for most of the game and kind of toyed with the Eagles for the better part of the 2nd half.

Still, averaging 74.0 ppg Buffalo leads the MAC in scoring. Kent State has a 23-5 lead in the all-time series but Buffalo won two of the three meetings last season. Four of the five wins by Buffalo in the series have come at Alumni Arena at UB! But the difference for Kent during their recent winning stretch has been their defense. It's my feeling that Kent will own the inside game once again, which has also gotten much better with the maturation of Greene as the season has progressed, and that's UB's achilles heel. KSU's PG Rod Sherman has also been very hard to stop for opponents. The Bulls rely on the outside shooting of Pierce, and Smiley, and the ability to get to the basket by Betts. When Pierce couldn't buy a bucket in the first meeting, UB was totally out of synch and Pierce was frustrated and didn't play the last 8-10 mins of that game.

Nothing like a home crowd and looking at your own basket to spur a team on. I wouldn't be surprised if this line opens as a -8 or -9 in favor of the Flashes. The Bulls are playing much better but Kent is definitely on a roll and getting solid play from Randal Holt off the bench along with Anthony Simpson who comes off the bench as well and could be the MAC's 6th man of the year. Tough game for Kent as they also have Ohio looming next week along with a bracket buster vs. Western Carolina and KSU Coach Geno Ford's former college coach and mentor Larry Hunter. Seems like a perfect opportunity for Buffalo to pull a surprise if Kent gets complacent over their current streak and earlier beatdown on the Bulls in Kent. However, this team has not really had a let down or let up like they did in Ford's first season last year. Seems like they always come to play except for a bad start at CMU where they managed to overcome an 11pt second half deficit and win by 5 a week ago, but how many times can you pull a rabbit out of the hat like that?! A fast start by the Flashes in necessary in a very tough place to play for visiting shooters, but not if your shooters are close to the basket like Kent's!

I really think Kent can come out on top with a 10-12 pt. win much like WMU did there last week.

Kent State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo. Kent State is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

• Kent State’s eight game win streak is tied for the ninth longest in the nation.

• In the second half of the last eight games, Kent State is averaging 43.6 points and shooting 57.8 percent.

• Kent State has a +149 advantage in points scored (+18.6 ppg) the last eight games when Rodriquez Sherman in on the court.

• Kent State has won the last 12 games when the team has scored at least 30 points in the paint.

• Kent State’s seven road wins are tied with Buffalo for the most by a MAC team this season.

• Anthony Simpson is shooting 8-10 (80.0 percent) from three and averaging 12.0 points in the last four games.

• Kent State is 10-0 this season when Simpson scores in double figures.

• Kent State is averaging 11.8 steals in the last four games and leads the league with 8.8 per game.

[Franchise]

One more note -

St Louis left the Philadelphia area today and will be arriving home sometime today. They have been in Philly since last thursday and won at Lasalle on Saturday and Joes on Tuesday. The plans were to fly on separate flights with some players getting up at 4:30 am with arrivals in st louis at 10 am and 4 pm. I can't see them being really prepared for the game tomorrow after 8 straight nights in Philly and probably all the players running out of clean clothes.

[Franchise]

UNC - Scratch my thoughts on that. Ed Davis has a broken wrist. I don't see how they manage enough sustained scoring with the clowns they will be throwing in the post. All-Americans don't always pan out and it looks like they have some less than stellar ones there right now. It will be interesting to see what kind of line comes out as I think UNC has still been drawing lines due to the name on the front of the jersey not the play they have put on the court (ex: they are 7-15 ATS on the season and 1-7 in the last 8 and 2-10 in last 12).

[Nicky Santoro]

I know this is definitely JoePa territory but I like this MAC conference match-up. Kent has a roadie at Buffa-load. The Flashes are running hot winning 8 of their last 10 covering 7 of those. The Bulls are a team going in the other direction. The Flashes are tied with the best record in the MAC and are really starting to click, that's what scares me. I find this a bad spot for Kent. I think Buffalo will be gettin the spot here at home and it may be around 4-6 points. Looking at previous match-ups I expect the public to back the Flashes right off the bat. I may wait for the line to move up even more around game time. I hate going against a hot team but can they make it 9 in a row?? I will even be looking ML here. Just one of those gut feelings I guess. Rodney Pierce will have to lead that offense into a tough Kent defense that been holding shooter to 37% from the field the last 5 games. Ball movement and smart shots will keep the Bulls in contention.
Would like to hear JoePa's take!:thumbs:

I should have never gone against my Viking's the other day. Big game for them against Butler. The Bulldogs have the #1 seed locked up already for the Horizon tourney already. In the past CSU always plays Butler tough and this will definitely be one of those games. The Vikes have won their last 6 straight with Norris Cole leading the way. last game against Valpo the team shot 93% from the line and 50% from the field, huge numbers. Big match-up under the glass Hayward against CSU's Pogue. Look for a big rebounding battle and some great defense. Viking's at home are 10-3 this year. CSU gets the spot here and probably about 4-6 points. I'll take those points at home. Could be a let down for Howard and the Bulldogs.

[FlyersFan]

SCAR @ UGA..........franchise- forgot that one. I agree on UGA. I imagine a pretty tight line of maybe 2-4 points.

[Franchise]

Some thoughts

MD/Duke - I think this will be a very interesting game. I think this game will be low scoring and rather tight. I don't know if Maryland is ready for a battle like they will get at Cameron but they learned a good lesson in their beatdown two years ago.

GM/ODU - I agree. If it comes in under 10 I'm on it.

Dayton/SLU - I think the number is going to tell you a lot about what the linesmakers think of this UD team. If they factor in the the road problems from the last few years it will be around a pk and if they overrate the last two games it may start as high as 6. I don't know that I would be shocked by either number and although UD did lose at St. Joe's their overall play on the road has been pretty good this season. SLU has been pretty consistent all season long but two big issues I see for them in this game are rebounding and depth. UD has hammered some teams on the boards and have a significant advantage in athleticism and size over SLU. In conference play UD has a +11pg rebounding margin while SLU is -5pg. UD also has the most efficient defense per possession in the conference (just edging SLU) and with SLU averaging less than 9 made FT's per conf game I don't know where the points will come from. All that and the fact that SLU wants to play 6 guys the majority of the minutes I think will be a problem for them.

USC/UGA - I like Georgia here to dampen USC's tourney hopes after controlling the game @SC and with SC's recent wins I expect something close to pk.

NC St/UNC - I think UNC can get a win here as they seem to be improving their in game play only to fall late in their last couple of games. But I have a feeling the number might be more like 7-9 and that is more than I am comfortable laying with a team that has 2 conference wins.


UNLV/SD St - Prime spot for a SD St win although it would have been better had UNLV beaten UNM on Monday night.

URI/Temple - URI dropped a big game vs Richmond and might need to get another back. This game would qualify and would probably lock up their tourney bid. The fitness of Fernandez will be huge. I don't know that Temple will win without him.

X/Florida - I like X to get a road win as a bounceback off the UD beating as the more rested team. Florida has also not performed that well against tourney caliber teams after Dec 1. I expect X to have a nice ML in this game.

Memphis/Tulsa - I like Tulsa by 7-9 in this game, if not more. I don't know where the line might fall with the post guy kicked off Memphis's team. Jordan should have his way with Memphis but Tulsa hasn't really blown anyone out in a while. Tulsa has also lost atleast the last 10 straight and the two last year were embarassing (60's to 30's) so I would say they will be motivated.

GT/Wake - I like WF with revenge and the fact that GT hasn't played well on the road. They got beat on pretty well at Miami till a late run closed the gap and WF pounded BC only to have BC close the gap to the number late although it was never that close. I don't think the current perception is accurate compared to how these teams are playing.

UVA/VT - If the number is around 5 VT will likely be a play for me. They here the talk about how they need more good wins and they have been playing well. I think VT is improving and hasn't played their best game yet. Although the last two were good starts.

USF/Marquette - Marquette has been much better at home so it will be interesting to see this line since Gilchrist looks to be back for USF and he is a player that Marquette doesn't have a body for.

I'll have some more late tonight after I have a better chance to review some of the games for travel and days off, etc. once the lines come out.

[Daws1089]

Something to consider. S FLA gets their 6'10'' big man back who is pretty good this weekend so they may be a team to keep an eye on. Not saying they win @MARQ, but could be a decent bet later on.

I like KEN over TENN. TENN just is not that good imo. Would consider the moneyline. Maybe I'm putting too much stock into TENN last game and they will come better prepared for this one, but I like KEN to win there.

[Daws1089]

How the hell is GT #20? I would not be surprised if they went down at Wake on saturday.

[BUNK MORELAND]

THE PAC 10

is so crazy .. I actually think CAL is very good and i'm really impressed with what SEAN MILLER is doing in Tucson. Im not scared to play AZ in that spot with the way they are playing..

Arkansas is starting to play very well. You got ask WHAT IF with them .. They had a lot of guys out early in the year . THey are red hot right now....

I like Maryland... ACC is so bad this year .. Dogs have lots of value in this league because of the mediocrity. IMO


LETS GET EM :beerbang::beerbang::beerbang:

Penn St has nothing besides Battle absolutely nothing. That coach is gonna get fired i think . He's from my hometown