Dayton/UMass

[Franchise]

A couple notes on today's game. I think this is a great matchup for the Flyers. Their main weaknesses are a slow pace and a team that has multiple 3 pt shooters. UMass doesn't play that slow and has one player. Typically Gregory's teams have done a great job when there is one main guy to stop on the other team. I expect a rotation of Williams and Spearman and Johnson to dog Gurley the whole game and make all the points he scores tough. Combine that with 2 of the top 8 guys being out for UMass (Traghnam and Correia) and I think is a great spot for the Flyers. They have been playing much better of late as the rotation settled down and they were also tested late in the SLU game which should keep them focused throughout this matchup.

I think UD is able to control UMass and hold them to 60ish points depending on the pace that UMass tries to play at. At the offensive end I think UD is able to rebound very effectively to give themselves multiple second chances and provide the margin of victory. To this point they have not shot the ball effectively as a team which is surprising since they have several players that are quality shooters. I wouldn't be shocked to have them shoot the ball well as a team and have the game get out of control for UMass. UD will have the size and athletic advantages as well as depth and overall talent. Unless Gurley goes for 30 I don't think UMass can keep this close. I think UD's mild disappointments against ETSU and Cincy are still keeping their lines down as this should be atleast 3 points higher. This is a team with a very manageable conference schedule and I expect will separate themselves from the conference along with Richmond and Temple to provide a compelling 3 team race for the title with the edge going to Temple based on toughness and schedule.

I don't think I will be playing on Dayton in their next game against St Joe's as Martelli has been very effective against Gregory and although they are overmatched they will have a solid gameplan that has had success against them. It will also be a look ahead spot with X on deck next saturday. I don't think I will fade the Flyers at UD but I wouldn't be surprised to see a DD line and a single digit victory midweek.

Dayton -2 4 Units

glta

[Nigel Tufnel]

I agree with everything you posted....the line just doesn't make any sense to me. Is it low based on UD's past issues playing on the road? I would have thought this line would have been around 7.5 to 8. UMASS has lost at home by 12 to Maine, 25 to Seton Hall and lost @ Cent. Connecticut State by 29!!

That line just looks so fishy...not to mention about 80% of the public is on UD and line went from -2.5 to -2....I want to hammer UD today...but that line is just freaking me out.

Franchise, why the hell is it so low?

Also, you think next Saturday will be the end of an era for UD? If there is a year it could happen, its this year. UD players and coaches have to get tired of hearing, "JIMMY CARTER!!!! JIMMY CARTER!!!"

(For those that don't know what I'm talking about, the last time UD beat X at X, Jimmy Carter was President.)

[Daws1089]

nice write ups guys :thumbs:

[msl1014]

Great info guys

[Nigel Tufnel]

Also, Franchise, what do you think about X getting 2 at URI today? There is usually a Crosstown Shootout hangover....but something tells me X is going to get a "W" today @URI. I think they are going to be pissed about how uninspired their play was Thursday night. Plus, URI doesn't play great defense. I think McLean and Frease should be able to control the paint and I don't expect back to back crappy game from Holloway.

[Franchise]

Nigel, I do think the line is low because of UD's history of struggles on the road as well as their up and down performance this year. I was shocked the line was a pick at SLU but I was cautioned as I thought Majerus would be at the helm. UD hasn't garnered the same respect as X on the road against inferior teams because they haven't been able to come through as their home court has been atleast a 6-8 point difference in their performance. If it wasn't for Staten I wouldn't have confidence in their play on the road but he is a huge factor in their development as a team. He dominates the ball and can get to the basket at will. His consistency in creating open shots for his teammates has helped reduce the scoring droughts as well. But in the beginning of the season when they were incorporating an entire new backcourt with Staten and Parker and Spearman plus more minutes for Williams it took time for the players to get comfortable and perform in their new roles. Williams has become more assertive and really feeds off Staten's drive and kicks now. I think the lines are slow to catch up to UD's improving play since they aren't a team getting national recognition and this is a game most people wouldn't look at it since it's an A10 game not involving X or Temple. I wouldn't be too concerned with the percentages since the handle on this game can't be too high.

As for next week I think it will be a great game. If Dante Jackson does what he does against UD I think X wins. If Staten can get by Holloway and can withstand his dirty play and doesn't retaliate I think UD can get the W. UD is due to shoot the ball better and I think if they take care of business in their next two games the one on Saturday will be a big statement game. It will be great to watch and I think we will know if the first 5 minutes who wins that game. When UD has beaten X they typically have come out on fire and taken an early lead. If not, it could be another dark day at the Cintas Center.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Sounds good...I'm sold. I was also shocked at the SLU line too...maybe this is just more of the same.

Holloway dirty? Come on, man....chippy....he's chippy. :laughing: (The elbow in the UC game was stupid...Holloway lost his composure, but it wasn't brutal or anything like that.)

I think UD will get it done next Saturday....the difference makers will be Johnson and Williams...Johnson always kills X because Dante Jackson couldn't box out a traffic cone and Paul Williams will get free and can some big 3's...that kid can shoot. Wright will have a decent game and Staten will likely get outplayed by Holloway based on experience. Johnson and Williams will end up being the X-factors (pun intended) next Saturday and the curse will be over. X doesn't have Jordan Crawford nailing 27 foot fade away jumpers to seal the game like they did last year @ Cintas.

[Franchise]

X/URI - I think this is a huge game for URI, it's a whiteout or some garbage (I get URI ticket emails since I bought them for UD/URI game a couple of years ago) and they did just bring back one of their post players (Outerridge). URI will need some of their shooters to make shots and if they can get the game a little uptempo I think that is a big key. URI has to rebound the ball and make shots and I think they can do it today. With Richmond and James plus some nice parts I think URI can get some guys making shots. Plus with the energy at home I think URI is able to get effort on the boards and although they don't have the bulk of Cincy they do have some length and someone like James can be key if he commits to rebounding today. I think the game the other night took a physical toll on X and I think this is a terrible spot and style of play to rebound against. I don't think X falls apart this year but their schedule is really terrible for the next 2 1/2 weeks with their lack of depth. It's just unfortunate that Crawford left and all the injury/eligibility issues. Someone will need to step up each game other than Holloway and I just don't know that they have players or depth for that to happen. Especially since Jackson will be saving himself for the run at the series MVP next weekend.

[Franchise]

Holloway dirty? Come on, man....chippy....he's chippy. :laughing: (The elbow in the UC game was stupid...Holloway lost his composure, but it wasn't brutal or anything like that.)

I'm also referring to the garbage play where he smacked Lowery last year in the A10 tourney where Lowery pushed him back, got called for a deadball technical which resulted in possession and foul shots for X and iced the game. I just see him as a chippy (I'll use dirty) bitch.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Chippy/Dirty, Push/Punch....that's the beauty of the rivalry between X and UD...if you asked 100 X fans about that play last year, they would tell you Lowery threw a punch at Holloway and that's why he got T'd up. Of course, then those X fans would also say it was the sissiest punch they'd ever seen. :laughing:

Good times....GL today with the Flyers!! Looks like we may be opposites on the X game.:thumbs:

[Nigel Tufnel]

I don't care how sharp the linesmakers may be...they couldn't have ever envisioned something like that going down today. Unbelievable. UMASS shoots worse from the field and three point line than UD...and UD shot horribly...I was listening on the radio and with about 7 mins left, they said UMASS had 1 field goal the entire 2nd half!!

13-19 FTs for UD
29-36 FTs for UMASS...from a team that shoots around 65% for the year from the FT line.

I don't get UD, man. They played a crappy team, they played crappy, the crappy team played crappy...they should still win that game. They are so schizophrenic. I thought this team would be over that kind of crap...lose Lowery and Warren and gain Staten...I thought that would make the difference in the crazy ups and downs. They just kept chucking 3's...I don't get it.

Oh well...still think they'll beat X. Although, X reminded me tonight that they even while down, they are still a formidable team in the A10.

Can't wait to talk to you next Saturday and get our thoughts on the game!!

[Franchise]

The UD/UMass game wasn't the most well officiated game I have ever seen. The officials were wildly inconsistent from play to play and seemed to take all rhythm out of the game. They weren't able to call an illegal screen on UMass but did call one on CW to negate a 3. UD's defense was good and they dominated Gurley but on offense they just couldn't get the ball to go down. Their looks were relatively uncontested from the arc but they were like 2-22 before the last minute. Williams, Johnson and Fabrizius are usually able to knock some of them down with the wide open looks they got. And you combine that with UMass careering it from the FT line and playing with more energy on the boards. After watching this game it is clear the offensive scheme is a bit of a problem and it will be a factor when they don't shoot well. Very dissappointing. I don't like their chances on Saturday since X can easily force a repeat.

[Nigel Tufnel]

That game was an abomination of the game of basketball. I just don't understand it...they shot better from fg (28%) than UMASS, out shot them from the 3 (19% for UD), had the same amount of turnovers...and still lost!!

Flyers Fan (not our FlyersFan) are screaming for BG's head after today...first time I've really seen the natives get really restless. UD fans are a loyal bunch...but they aren't happy right now.

What a weird game.

p.s....they still beat X. :beer2: