System: Betting against the public

[Beehan]

Ok, rarely do I question the system, because it requires one to put aside one's biases and trust that the counter-intuitive system will make money in the same way that Vegas makes money. However, I have to draw the line somewhere, and Centenary is my personal threshold for ridiculous bets. That's a team that hasn't won a single game all year and that has just been getting blown out. Furthermore, there are so few bets on this game that it shouldn't even really fit the system.

Now, to be clear, I'm going to include the game in the system's record because I don't yet have a formal requirement regarding the number of bets on a game. But I refuse to bet on a team that bad and I'm seriously considering adding a filter that for a game to be playable, it has to have a certain number of public bets on it. That just makes sense, because there's no overall "square" consensus when only a few fools are paying any attention to the game. End rant.

@Woody- I can't post any links, but I just found some site on google by searching for ncaa basketball public bets. Again I'm not recommending any sites at all, there are a few out there, and maybe there's one that's a sponsor of this site, and if there is, I'd be happy to endorse it ;)

UPDATE: The public solved my predicament by betting up Centenary to 31%. I'm quite pleased and will not be including this game in the system's record. Unfortunately, the Detroit game is now at 36% too and I have to eliminate that one too. All other bets are locked in as of 5:08PM EST and will be considered system plays regardless of late bets.

[bigbag12]

he posted a link on the 1st page but got removed.

Where are you getting your betting % from?

[Woody12]

Where are you getting your betting % from?

[Beehan]

Thursday 2/1/11: System is 24-14, Road Dogs are 9-3...

Georgia Tech (24%) +1 vs. Florida State L
St. John's (22%) +1.5 vs. Connecticut W- SU by 17
UL Lafayette (28%) +2 @ Florida International (Road dog!) W- SU by 4
Detroit (30%) +8 @ Valparaiso (Road dog!) -- NO LONGER A SYSTEM PLAY at 36% of bets, 5pm EST. Sorry
Illinois Chicago (20%) +2 vs. Wisconsin-Green Bay W- SU by 2
CS Northridge (29%) +4 @ CS Fullerton (Road dog!) W- SU by 2
Pepperdine (19%) +4 vs. Portland W- SU by 2
UC Davis (27%) +4 vs. Long Beach State L
San Diego (28%) +11.5 @ San Francisco (Road dog!) L- SD missed 4 free throws at the end aww
Loyola Marymount (25%) +8.5 vs. Gonzaga L
Eastern Kentucky (26%) -12.5 vs. SE Missouri State W
Montana State (25%) +1.5 vs. Northern Colorado L
Oral Roberts (20%) -3.5 @ Missouri KC W
N. Dakota State (26%) -15 vs. Western Illinois W
Centenary (27%) +16.5 @ Southern Utah (Road dog!) (NOTE: I'm NOT betting on this game. No way. See explanation below. LOL) -- NO LONGER A SYSTEM PLAY at 31% of public bets, 5pm EST. Praise jeebus.

Dang, that's a lot of plays, which I actually like because I fully expect Vegas to make money off of this many games as a whole, and I plan to do the same. Since there are so many games, though, my unit size is pretty small. Personally, I'm putting 1 unit on each system play and 2 units on each road dog. I'm not tracking units here, though, just the system record. If you followed the system since last Monday at 1 unit per play, you'd be up 8.6 units ^_^ Best of luck tonight!

I'm making my plays about an hour earlier than usual, hoping that won't affect things. I'll check back later on to make sure nothing has drastically changed, and to monitor Idaho State, which is close to being a system play AND it looks like the line is moving in the wrong direction in order to get even more lopsided bets against Idaho State. But yeah, my idea is to find system plays at the right time of day, before the sharp money comes in. I want to know where all the squares are :D

[Beehan]

1-0 Tuesday, 9-5 Wednesday. 24-14 so far. Could have been even better, as 2 road dogs went to overtime on Wednesday but fell apart after regulation (UofL and Delaware). If only they could have lost by 1 point instead of forcing overtime, for the sake of the system! :D

[Beehan]

Wednesday, 2/9/11 LOCKED:

Louisville +4 @ Notre Dame (Road dog!) L - Destroyed in OT :(
South Florida +6 vs. Marquette W
Central Florida -3 vs. Memphis L
James Madison +4 @ Drexel (Road dog!) W- SU by 14
Delaware +6 vs. Va Commonwealth L - 2OT heartbreaker
George Washington +5.5 vs. Richmond W
Akron -6.5 vs. Western Michigan W by 12
Rutgers +5.5 vs. Villanova W- SU by 1
Nebraska +6 @ Baylor (Road dog!) W
Iowa +6.5 vs. Wisconsin W
Oklahoma +11 vs. Texas L
Air Force +10 vs. BYU L
Idaho +8.5 vs. Utah State W- SU by 8
Davidson +6.5 vs. Wofford (Road dog!) W- SU by 9

The public is all over the place tonight, so we have a large card. I'm loving the road dogs, which are 7-1 in the last 9 days according to this system. Best of luck to everyone tonight!

[Beehan]

Tuesday, 2/8/11
Pennsylvania (28%) +8 vs. Princeton W

Only play I see right now. If I see any late money going on Buffalo, G. Mason, or N. Iowa, I'll be fading those publicly-backed favorites. Each is 1-2% below the threshold 70% at the moment.

Note that Penn fits the bill as an AWAY DOG that's getting less than 30% of public bets. Similar teams were 6-1 ATS last week by my count. Very exciting!

[Beehan]

ONE WEEK into this, here's a quick breakdown into home/away and dogs/chalk:

System Overall: 14-9
Home Dogs: 10-9
Home Favs: 1-0
Away Dogs: 6-1
Away Favs: 0-0
Pickems: 0-1

Pretty interesting; I was thinking that home dogs would do the best, but so far it's been all about the away dogs at 6-1. Seems to suggest that when 70% or more of the public is on a home favorite, there is value on the away dog. Will continue to track.

[TheBeholdah]

Thanks Beholdah, I'm sure this will end up being just one of many factors to consider, but it's pretty interesting to keep track of and I plan to ride it out for small units as long as it keeps having positive days! Looks like I'll have 3 or 4 plays tonight, will post closer to game time :-D

it is def interesting to track, ill be keeping an eye on it

[Beehan]

Thanks Beholdah, I'm sure this will end up being just one of many factors to consider, but it's pretty interesting to keep track of and I plan to ride it out for small units as long as it keeps having positive days! Looks like I'll have 3 or 4 plays tonight, will post closer to game time :-D

[TheBeholdah]

i remember tracking this a few years ago, it worked for a while but didnt prove too effective over the long haul. it's just not that easy... gl to u tho sir and welcome to predictem.

[Beehan]

Oops, sorry MODs for the links. Won't happen again!

[Beehan]

Monday the system goes 3-2 for a record of 17-11! Can't wait to see what the public is doing tomorrow ^_^

[Beehan]

I'm using:

TAKEN RIGHT FROM THE STICKY IN THE GENERAL FORUM FROM YOMONTE......
"Please do not post a link, email addy or phone #. You might think that the link is innocent, but email one of us and we will check it out and let you know if its OK. But not until."


Monday, 2/7/11 System Plays: All picks LOCKED IN as of 4:30 with these lines:
West Virginia (24%) PK vs. Pittsburgh L
Detroit (23%) +2 vs. Cleveland State W
Illinois-Chicago (27%) +16.5 vs. Butler W
Eastern Illinois (28%) +7.5 vs. Murray State L
Jacksonville State (20%) +2 vs. Tennessee State W

Through Sunday the system is 14-9. Still a small sample size so be careful! Best of luck to all!

[akatdrake]

What site do you use?

TAKEN RIGHT FROM THE STICKY IN THE GENERAL FORUM FROM YOMONTE......
"Please do not post a link, email addy or phone #. You might think that the link is innocent, but email one of us and we will check it out and let you know if its OK. But not until."

Mods - this isn't a tout link or anything - just betting stats!!

That's what I use...