Kid's Ball 3/14

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 26-22

In yesterday's article I used two plays from the A vs B model I talked about in my last post here. Both won.
That made the record 2-16 or a 16-2 Fade.

Because of the unusually high percentage I wanted to double check my numbers so I went to my charts and tracked it.
I missed two spots. Both stayed Under.
The record is 2-18. Triple checked.
(Nine of those 20 spots have been shared here at PredictEm either in an article or the forum.)

A 90% W percentage is unsustainable.
Reversion toward the mean has to be lurking nearby.
But with a good couple units already banked I can afford to ride it until it bucks me.

Three spots today:
Grambling St/'Bama St 11 am PST
Tulsa/N Tex 4 pm PST
Mt St Mary's/Merrimack 5:30 PST

I'm eliminating Tulsa/N Tex.
Why?
Because of the "2" in the 2-18 record.
One of the two W's was North Texas. So they're out.
That leaves two spots.
The Grambling St/ 'Bama St game fits the subcategory of an 18-point or greater than differential. The record on those is 0-4 for the Over.

My Play:
Grambling St/'Bama St Un 127'

[RBD]

Games where you had the Under but it went Over due to a last second meaningless bucket stick with you longer.
They eat at you, they're harder to shake off.
But over time it probably does even out, and you win the close one.
I had one today.

With a minute left in the game and a close score I was sure this one was coming in at the the 129 to 132 range. And 129 would have sucked because the game closed at 129' and I was stuck with a lousy buy at Under 127'.
But in the closing seconds a missed layup by the team that was ahead on the scoreboard and a missed three pointer by the losers let me slide in with a winner.

Next up is the North Texas game but as noted in the previous post they have a 1-0 record in this spot so no Fade to the Under for me in this one (though the point differential falls just short of qualifying for the now 0-5 subcategory.)

That leaves the third and final game, Mount St Mary's/Merrimack.
I think I'll bank the unit I made and keep a profit for the day on this play that's way overdue to start leveling out.

[RBD]

Good news/bad news.

Good news:

Another profitable night for this play at 2-1.

Another profitable day for me at 1-0.

Banking the morning unit and not playing the later two games was the right move as they split.

The play is now 3-20, a very profitable 20-3 Fade.

Handicapping the subcategory of specific teams in this spot (N Tex) kept me off of a loss.

Bad news:
Only one game qualifies today.
Why is it bad news that I have a play in a 20-3, 87% system?
Because it's the North Texas game.
The Mean Green are 2-0 in the spot, which means I can't take the Fade and play the Under. And even though it's 2-0 to play the Over with North Texas I'm not going against a 20-3 spot.

Was obviously hoping for at least one or two more A vs B plays today.
Ugh.

[RBD]

UAB 66 N Tex 56
Under 135

The "Take Under in A vs B" play is now 21-3.

13 of the 24 spots have been shared here at PredictEm in either my articles or forum posts.
The record is 11-2, 84%.

Hindsight:
I've written about two types of trends, team specific and league based.

For example, earlier this week I pointed out that the Denver Nuggets are 13-2 SU when playing in the second game of back to back games.
That's a team-based trend, covering just one team

In the WNBA this past season we banked plenty of units buying the Over when a team played in the second game of back to back games. The record for that play was 18-7, 72%.
That's a league-based trend, encompassing all teams in the league.

So which is stronger?
The league-based trend because it has a larger data sample.

Watching the first half of UAB/North Texas yesterday I remembered team-based vs league based.
I had a team trend (on N Tex) that was 2-0 that said take the Over, up against a league based trend that was 20-3 Under.
And I knew what I should have played rather than laying off.

It's always so clear in hindsight.
Next time, I'll remember.

Hopefully we'll get a few of these A vs B spots when the tournament starts on Thursday.