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Recap: 2-0
Record: 29-22
Review:
McNeese wins SU as +7 Dogs and Houston stays Under by 8'.
Unfortunately I have no games today that fit the qualifiers that gave me both of yesterday's picks.
Today - the return of Chalk Boy.
He hasn't been seen since way back on September 7th when he laid 41 points and banked a unit with Ole Miss.
Using limited data from the postseason, WF2 has a record of 10-10 since the regular season ended; no value betting ON or Fading.
But it started out at 9-5 in the tournaments so it's 1-5 in the last six games that qualified, and it's usually sub.500 so I'm betting that it takes a few losses today (NINE to choose from: Robert Morris, Lip, Grand Canyon, Norfolk State, Troy, New Mexico, Akron, Bryant, Liberty.)
In the big tournament WF2 started off at 1-3 yesterday.
I'm going to look to see if I can jump on a streak early before it's established and starts to even out.
The WF2 game that interests me from yesterday was UC San Diego versus Michigan.
The point differential between WF2's number and the book's number was >20. And I have six of those to choose from today.
Chalk Boy's first play: 'Bama
Yes, it's one of the biggest spreads on the board.
How did Big Chalk do yesterday?
I see two games with a spread of -20 or more, and it was 1-1.
Houston covered, Auburn did not.
Looking at last year's tournament, round 1, Alabama covered the spread in their first game but were only -8.
The line on today's game opened as high as 23' and is currently sitting at -21'.
Got 45 minutes until tip off so I might as well wait a little bit to see if I can get the hook off.
Do I like 'Bama today?
Not really.
Do I prefer to bet when I actually like the play that my numbers tell me to take?
Of course.
But it's the tournament, ya gotta to have some action, and I'll take a shot with 'Bama here, laying the high number.
As Favs of 20 or > 'Bama is 3-2 this year.
Hoping they'll come out a little angry after that 22 point loss to Florida in their last game, and take it out on the Colonials.
High Tide!
Update: Grabbed -21' as a few -22 are starting to pop up.
Update #2: With just 10 minutes left Alabama is only up by 4 points so it's clear they're not going to cover. This means like any true sports bettor I have to change my allegiance and root for Robert Morris to beat them straight up, since the bastards aren't going to cover for me.
My Play:
'Bama -21'
UPDATE: Adding a play.
The * spot is 1-2 in the tournaments.
Liberty qualifies today. So . . .
Update #2: With about 10 minutes left Alabama's up by only four points so clearly they're not going to cover for me.
This means that like any true Sports better I have to switch allegiances now and root for Robert Morris to beat them straight up and eliminate them from the tournament.
UPDATE #3: Adding a play.
A rarer venture outside of my personal handicapping models, just a gut feel play on the Gaels.
My Plays:
'Bama -21'
Ore -7
St. Mary's -4'
Record: 29-22
Review:
McNeese wins SU as +7 Dogs and Houston stays Under by 8'.
Unfortunately I have no games today that fit the qualifiers that gave me both of yesterday's picks.
Today - the return of Chalk Boy.
He hasn't been seen since way back on September 7th when he laid 41 points and banked a unit with Ole Miss.
Using limited data from the postseason, WF2 has a record of 10-10 since the regular season ended; no value betting ON or Fading.
But it started out at 9-5 in the tournaments so it's 1-5 in the last six games that qualified, and it's usually sub.500 so I'm betting that it takes a few losses today (NINE to choose from: Robert Morris, Lip, Grand Canyon, Norfolk State, Troy, New Mexico, Akron, Bryant, Liberty.)
In the big tournament WF2 started off at 1-3 yesterday.
I'm going to look to see if I can jump on a streak early before it's established and starts to even out.
The WF2 game that interests me from yesterday was UC San Diego versus Michigan.
The point differential between WF2's number and the book's number was >20. And I have six of those to choose from today.
Chalk Boy's first play: 'Bama
Yes, it's one of the biggest spreads on the board.
How did Big Chalk do yesterday?
I see two games with a spread of -20 or more, and it was 1-1.
Houston covered, Auburn did not.
Looking at last year's tournament, round 1, Alabama covered the spread in their first game but were only -8.
The line on today's game opened as high as 23' and is currently sitting at -21'.
Got 45 minutes until tip off so I might as well wait a little bit to see if I can get the hook off.
Do I like 'Bama today?
Not really.
Do I prefer to bet when I actually like the play that my numbers tell me to take?
Of course.
But it's the tournament, ya gotta to have some action, and I'll take a shot with 'Bama here, laying the high number.
As Favs of 20 or > 'Bama is 3-2 this year.
Hoping they'll come out a little angry after that 22 point loss to Florida in their last game, and take it out on the Colonials.
High Tide!
Update: Grabbed -21' as a few -22 are starting to pop up.
Update #2: With just 10 minutes left Alabama is only up by 4 points so it's clear they're not going to cover. This means like any true sports bettor I have to change my allegiance and root for Robert Morris to beat them straight up, since the bastards aren't going to cover for me.
My Play:
'Bama -21'
UPDATE: Adding a play.
The * spot is 1-2 in the tournaments.
Liberty qualifies today. So . . .
Update #2: With about 10 minutes left Alabama's up by only four points so clearly they're not going to cover for me.
This means that like any true Sports better I have to switch allegiances now and root for Robert Morris to beat them straight up and eliminate them from the tournament.
UPDATE #3: Adding a play.
A rarer venture outside of my personal handicapping models, just a gut feel play on the Gaels.
My Plays:
'Bama -21'
Ore -7
St. Mary's -4'