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Recap: 1-0
Record: 32-24
Review: Hit with Purdue last time in.
The fewer games on the schedule, the less chance I have of getting something that will qualify for one of my handicapping models.
But I have one today.
Ten/Hou fits one of the two methods I used to choose totals.
The Over has a record of 32-56, giving me a 63% edge on a Fade.
It also fits the subcategory of when there's a point differential of 18 or greater between my model and the books.
Record for that play is 2-5, a 72% Fade.
I don't like the number on this game, looks a little too low to me (124' is the WAN, a few houses have already moved to 125), but I'll stick with my stuff as always.
My Play:
Ten/Houston Un
(Three hours till tip off, I'll wait and hope it goes a little higher.)
Update #1: Waiting was the right move as 125 is now the WAN and 125' is showing up at some shops.
Still waiting.
Update #2: Up to 126' now, going to wait a little bit longer.
Update #3: Bookmaker offered 127 with only one cent more than standard juice (-111) but 126' is the common number readily available to most betters so that's what I'll use for the play here.
Update #4: Left out a record.
I gave the correct record for this play on the Over at 32-56.
And I said it also qualifies for the subcategory of 18 or greater.
But I accidentally left out the stat in the middle of those two, A vs B. The record was 6-21 for B, THAT'S where the differential of 18 or greater than subcategory comes in, as explained in couple previous posts and articles.
Here are the updated numbers, after the Ten/Hou game:
Model B is now 32-57.
Subcategory A vs B is 6-22.
Sub-subcategory, when the diff between A and B is 18 or > is 2-6.
Solid Fades all.
Record: 32-24
Review: Hit with Purdue last time in.
The fewer games on the schedule, the less chance I have of getting something that will qualify for one of my handicapping models.
But I have one today.
Ten/Hou fits one of the two methods I used to choose totals.
The Over has a record of 32-56, giving me a 63% edge on a Fade.
It also fits the subcategory of when there's a point differential of 18 or greater between my model and the books.
Record for that play is 2-5, a 72% Fade.
I don't like the number on this game, looks a little too low to me (124' is the WAN, a few houses have already moved to 125), but I'll stick with my stuff as always.
My Play:
Ten/Houston Un
(Three hours till tip off, I'll wait and hope it goes a little higher.)
Update #1: Waiting was the right move as 125 is now the WAN and 125' is showing up at some shops.
Still waiting.
Update #2: Up to 126' now, going to wait a little bit longer.
Update #3: Bookmaker offered 127 with only one cent more than standard juice (-111) but 126' is the common number readily available to most betters so that's what I'll use for the play here.
Update #4: Left out a record.
I gave the correct record for this play on the Over at 32-56.
And I said it also qualifies for the subcategory of 18 or greater.
But I accidentally left out the stat in the middle of those two, A vs B. The record was 6-21 for B, THAT'S where the differential of 18 or greater than subcategory comes in, as explained in couple previous posts and articles.
Here are the updated numbers, after the Ten/Hou game:
Model B is now 32-57.
Subcategory A vs B is 6-22.
Sub-subcategory, when the diff between A and B is 18 or > is 2-6.
Solid Fades all.