Illinois @ Syracuse

[BoilerBacker]

lmao...you're classic...when i saw you posted i knew you would completely break down my entire thing like you always do in every thread. you kill me.

just because i wouldn't play one side doesn't mean the other side is a good play. have fun if you want to throw your money on a team that has scored 12 points all year long. i guess you are smarter than the oddsmaker BB.

so i guess the oddsmaker is giving free money away this week....woooohoooo......oddsmaker must not have seen either of these teams play and his opinion on games is obviously nothing when it comes to capping a game.

here is the discussion i am sure BB:

Oddsmaker: hmmmm, i haven't seen ILL or SYR this year, and i remember ILL went to the Rose Bowl in the mid 90's and they have had some good players through the years. Syracuse hasn't done much lately. I think ILL is going to kill them by like 20 points because Jeff George is going to throw 5 TD's this week. Yupp....ILL -12 1/2.

My whole point was ONCE AGAIN just because i don't trust ILL laying 12 1/2 on the road doesn't fking mean that SYR +12 1/2 is a good play. I don't trust SYR either.


i would flip a coin in this ATS battle. the funny thing is that i know people are going to bet one side or the other in this one and then bitch and complain when one of these teams implodes. Guaranteed post for Saturday: Fck "insert either ILL or SYR". They suck. I can't believe they played that way. Im never betting on them again.

You said SUICIDE play. That is fatal. In other words bet the other side.

And you are the kook making the point that SYR has looked like crap. That is WHY the line is where it is. They know dudes like you and going to say "Syracuse looks like crap and only has scored 12 points". So they can put the line at 12 and a bunch of lemmings will bet on Illinois because they heard about this Juice guy and how good he is and Syracuse has sucked for years...

You know me, I would never say... Iam never betting this side again. This week however, I think Syracuse at home vs. a mistake prone Illinois team is a good bet. And I will give you 100 to 1 odds that Syracuse will not go 0-12 ATS this year. Because, I know, every week this season you could write the same stuff you have written in this post....and odds are Syr will cover 6 games this year.... even if they suck.

[FlyersFan]

Flyers.... If Illinois is such a suicide play on the road, then why the hell isn't Syr a good play? You are not making sense. Iowa has a GOOD defense. I would never judge a play by how a team looked in one or two games. Plenty of examples of that last week....NEB, WVU (lucky cover), Temple, Cal, Georgia, Wisc... I could go on. Most of their opponents were Crap State and the like.

I agree, if you have better plays then they should be played, but if Ill is SUICIDE, then Syr seems to be a decent play.

lmao...you're classic...when i saw you posted i knew you would completely break down my entire thing like you always do in every thread. you kill me.

just because i wouldn't play one side doesn't mean the other side is a good play. have fun if you want to throw your money on a team that has scored 12 points all year long. i guess you are smarter than the oddsmaker BB.

so i guess the oddsmaker is giving free money away this week....woooohoooo......oddsmaker must not have seen either of these teams play and his opinion on games is obviously nothing when it comes to capping a game.

here is the discussion i am sure BB:

Oddsmaker: hmmmm, i haven't seen ILL or SYR this year, and i remember ILL went to the Rose Bowl in the mid 90's and they have had some good players through the years. Syracuse hasn't done much lately. I think ILL is going to kill them by like 20 points because Jeff George is going to throw 5 TD's this week. Yupp....ILL -12 1/2.

My whole point was ONCE AGAIN just because i don't trust ILL laying 12 1/2 on the road doesn't fking mean that SYR +12 1/2 is a good play. I don't trust SYR either.


i would flip a coin in this ATS battle. the funny thing is that i know people are going to bet one side or the other in this one and then bitch and complain when one of these teams implodes. Guaranteed post for Saturday: Fck "insert either ILL or SYR". They suck. I can't believe they played that way. Im never betting on them again.

[BoilerBacker]

I don't love the -12.5 but Illinois can put up points and seeing them win this by 14+ wouldn't surprise me at all. I will probably pass on this game as for me its the Illini or nothing cause I'd need to see +17 to even consider cuse.

Illinois managed to only score 21 pts vs. W Illinois, a team that went 5-6 last year in 1-AA. This, despite the fact that WIU only had 4 first downs the entire game. Illinois punted 9 times in the game and had a lot of mistakes.... a lost fumble, an INT, 7 penalties for 65 yds, 2 sacks for -18 yds and only averaged 34 yd/punt. They were 6 of 17 on third down efficiency.

Against Missouri, they had 5 turnovers, 7 penalties for 55 yds, 3 sacks for -27 yds, 2 other fumbles that they recovered. Juice is all hype in my opinion (at this point). He is the only Big Ten QB with a rating below 100.

Illinois is mistake prone which makes going against them attractive.

[Q-Unit]

Syracuse at home and on the road are different as night and day.

I could be wrong, but other than last year (cuz i lost taking them lol), the Cuse have pretty much been solid ATS if not SU at home no matter the competition.

[BoilerBacker]

dan- i completely agree with you about not wanting any part of ILL -12 1/2 on the road. that is just suicide. my point is, it doesn't make SYR a good play. and my 2nd point is, there are 200+ plays on the card this weekend, i would think you could find better plays than SYR to give your money to. I saw Iowa play LIVE in week 1 and they are not a very good team at this point in the season. SYR couldn't do anything against them. I just don't see how you can circle a team that has scored 12 freeking points all year long as a good play, regardless of whether or not ILL should be favored by 12 points. GL!...if you play it to all you guys...:thumbs:

Flyers.... If Illinois is such a suicide play on the road, then why the hell isn't Syr a good play? You are not making sense. Iowa has a GOOD defense. I would never judge a play by how a team looked in one or two games. Plenty of examples of that last week....NEB, WVU (lucky cover), Temple, Cal, Georgia, Wisc... I could go on. Most of their opponents were Crap State and the like.

I agree, if you have better plays then they should be played, but if Ill is SUICIDE, then Syr seems to be a decent play.

[BoilerBacker]

hey stif- as i heard a reputable vegas guy discussing this game...........PASS.....why in the world would you try and figure out who is going to win or cover this mess. I don't think ILL deserves to be a 12 1/2 point road favorite, but do you really want to play SYR?? They have scored TWELVE freeking points all season long. I mean with all that to choose from on Saturday why try and figure this mess out?

there are probably about 200 plays on the board on Saturday including totals, sides, 1H plays and 2H plays. You have to be able to find better plays than this. But that is just my opinion.

GL! if you play it....i certainly wouldn't play ILL that is for sure. but no one should complain if whichever of these 2 teams they pick doesn't play well......it has to be expected. I equate this to the BUF/TEM game last weekend.

This gets filed under the 'DO YOU REALLY THINK SYRACUSE IS GOING TO GO 0-12 THIS YEAR ATS?' File. I think it looks like a good play to me. Washington and Iowa are obviously pretty good opponents with good defenses. I don't think Syr will win, but I also don't think they will lose by DD. Not sure if I will play it, but it is on my short list.

I think it is always easier to win ATS with bad teams than with good. In any sport.

[wsox08]

Being an Illini fan, I was shocked to see this line, but I know Cuse isn't anything special this year. I'll probably stay away from this one but if anything I would take cuse. I can see Illinois covering this but it's definitely not worth the risk.

[Underdog88]

I equate this to the BUF/TEM game last weekend.

Please, UB ML was live there :gulp:


Cuse or nothing for me. I have a hard time backing great teams -10 or more on the road, let alone mediocre ones. Cuse beat Illinois 31-21 away last year, & it really wasn't even that close (they led 31-7 at the end of the 3rd). Could be the revenge angle that's pumping this line up, but IMO @ +400, it looks like a half-unit play for me :hugegrin:

[COACH DITKA]

Being the Illini are my team, I feel I should post and throw my two cents in there.
First thing, when I first saw the lines out the other day, I honestly had to triple and quadruple check the screen to make sure what I was reading wasn't some kind of mistake. IL as a road fave is very strange, yet alone a DD one.
Secondly, I can't comment very much on 'Cuse as I haven't seen them much. I didn't see any of the Iowa game and very little of their drubbing to the Huskies. However, looking at the stats, their #s are very pathetic. Their freshman QB Andrew Robinson is very young and inexperienced obviously and the WRs' numbers are suffering. Their running game hasn't been able to get going, probably due to the O-Line. On defense, giving up 42 and 35 points isn't good at all. Though Wash. and Iowa are two solid teams, they aren't offensive machines by any means.
Thirdly, now onto the Illini. They impressed me in the Mizzou game and quite frankly should have won that game (Tigers were VERY fortunate). BTW, I believe someone said it was a home game for IL - actually a neutral site in St. Louis. They did not look as good against WIU this wknd (I was there) but perhaps they were playing down to their competition.
Impressions of their units so far:
Offense: Juice has definitely been a disappointment so far as he still has not learned to become a passer. There is no doubting his athletic ability but seems out of place at QB. During the WIU game, he again was consistently missing open receivers, making bad throws, and always looking to leave the pocket and scramble as opposed to letting the play develop. McGee impressed me during the Mizzou game (outside of his two early fumbles) and definitely deserves another look. He only came in against WIU during the end of the game in a pound-the-rock-up-the-middle situation and believe he only threw one pass.
Mendenhall is looking better and better every time I see him play. He also bulked up in the offseason (added 20 pounds of muscle). I expect big things from him the rest of this season and in the future. Daniel Dufrene (transfer from a JUCO in CA) didn't really play against Mizzou but looked great against WIU, including a spectacular TD run of about 40 yards where he broke about 5 tackles to reach paydirt.
Obviously at WR, Benn is the one everyone wants to talk about. He is definitely going to be a star down the line and w/a QB that can hit him consistently, he will put up some huge #s. Hudson is more of a #3 WR, as he is mostly a possesion-type of receiver (who doesn't have the best hands), but has deceptive speed and can beat you deep on occasion (such as in 2nd half against Tigers). Joe Morgan has played awful so far as he hasn't really shown he can catch the ball. I would def. like to see the TEs used more as they have been non-existent thus far. Cumberland and "Hoo-Man" (as we call him) have big frames and can run, helping Juice stretch the field.
The OL has been pretty solid and should continue to improve as the year goes along. Our starting T's are a transfer (from OU, Akim Millington) and former DE (Xavier Fulton). The interior (Asomah, McDonald, and O'Donnell) are pretty experienced and won't be rattled in a hostile environment on Saturday.
Defense: The front has been a disappointment, other than letting the OL eat them up and freeing up Leman. The haven't been able to generate any kind of pass rush, even against WIU on Saturday. Pilcher and Brown have done nothing off the edge and Norwell and Lundquist have been inconsistent in the middle, though better against the run.
J Leman is clearly a beast in the middle and very underrated around the country. He doesn't do anything exceptionally except make plays. The kid is a tackling machine who has a nose for the football. (20 tackles against Mizzou) Miller and Steele compliment him well on the outside, though the group doesn't have much speed. (Miller will probably move inside next year to make way for Martez Wilson on the outside). Speaking of Martez, he is an unreal athlete who is a freak. I dont know how many tackles he had vs. WIU, but I know he made 4 or 5 tackles on special teams alone. I am really excited to see how good he will be someday.
Vontae Davis is only a sophmore but he's a good one. He has good size and speed and matches up well w/most WRs. Harrison is a hard-hitting saftey who can come up in the box and help plug the run.

I'm sorry for that long read and if some of it was irrevelant. However, from someone who is a huge fan of IL (season ticket holder, etc), this is one game that has STAY AWAY written all over it. Like a few others said, there are dozens of other totals/sides that are better plays this week. Do I think the Illini can go in there and win by 20 points? Absolutely. However, I also think they can just as easily go into the Carrier Dome and lay an egg (probably b/c of the coaching) and either lose or barely escape with a win. Although this looks like a bit of a mismatch on paper in Illini's favor, let's not forget this a team that, although improving, won 2 games last year and 8 in the last 3+ years, including 2 Big Ten games. Our D has been is an underrated unit (the 40 against Mizzou is misleading b/c of turnovers and subsequent short fields) and the running game should be able to do enough to keep this one a low scoring affair. Not even gonna try to predict a score as I'd look like an idiot probably, but I would look for the under here, as opposed to a side.

GL to everyone who decides to play this game. Go Illini!


Moose

[Stifler's Mom]

Now keep in mind, lines that look too good to be true to me, probably don't look that way to too many others 9 times out of 10.

With that being said, at this point 78% are backing Illinois as a -12.5 road chalk. That doesn't automatically make Syracuse a good play, nor does it mean the public won't do an about face until Saturday and start backing Syracuse.....I just thought I'd throw it out there, since it doesn't look like too many are thinking the 'Cuse +12.5 is looking too good to be true with the exception of myself, lol.

I mean honestly....what is it that the Big 11 has done this year? Wisconsin is supposed to be one of the best teams in the conference and they almost lost to freakin UNLV Saturday night. Michigan is self explanatory. Ohio St struggled at home with Akron but at least won. Penn St beat 2 IMO teams that aren't anywhere near the same talent level as them, but at least they won their games convincingly enough, so I have nothing to say bad about them.

Also take into account that Syracuse has played Washington, who has proven to be pretty damn solid to this point, and Iowa, who always plays good defense and rarely loses at home. Looking back at what we know now, I don't think the results of either of those games would be unexpected.

I just don't see how any middle of the pack team in the Big 11 conference could be a double digit road chalk at this point. Then add in a young Illinois team playing its first road game of the season, and almost 2 TD's is a hell of alot to cover, even against Syracuse. IMO the line will actually probably hit +14 by game time if no one steps up and lays some money on Syracuse, making it an even better play, since it becomes at least a 3 score spread instead of 2.

Point is, I look for line value and try to play on who I can best predict has the best probability of covering what are IMO bad lines (normally due to either public perception or situational advantages/disadvantages) when making my plays...not looking for statistical matchups, historical trends, or "how bad or good a team looks" etc.

Teams that look good early in the season or those who carry a reputation of being a good team often times end up being relatively poor ATS, and those who look bad early on normally end up being pretty good plays ATS, once the oddsmakers catch up and they start to play at least a little better.

I think this will be by far the easiest game Syracuse has played so far this year, while situationally, it will be the toughest for Illinois, since it's their first trip away from home.

Plus, beating Western Illinois 21-0 is nothing to get too excited about either...

[flmmkrz]

I don't love the -12.5 but Illinois can put up points and seeing them win this by 14+ wouldn't surprise me at all. I will probably pass on this game as for me its the Illini or nothing cause I'd need to see +17 to even consider cuse.

[dananderson32]

dan- i completely agree with you about not wanting any part of ILL -12 1/2 on the road. that is just suicide. my point is, it doesn't make SYR a good play. and my 2nd point is, there are 200+ plays on the card this weekend, i would think you could find better plays than SYR to give your money to. I saw Iowa play LIVE in week 1 and they are not a very good team at this point in the season. SYR couldn't do anything against them. I just don't see how you can circle a team that has scored 12 freeking points all year long as a good play, regardless of whether or not ILL should be favored by 12 points. GL!...if you play it to all you guys...:thumbs:

your right man. ....but every monday i look over the card for games that jump out to me ......and thats the first one that did.......doesnt mean ill be on it for sure.....gotta go back and look at the #'s and everything but as of now....i like it....

[FlyersFan]

yeah i know syr sucks .......but juice williams -12.5 on the road.......i just dont see them covering that # they might but ill take my chances on cuse

dan- i completely agree with you about not wanting any part of ILL -12 1/2 on the road. that is just suicide. my point is, it doesn't make SYR a good play. and my 2nd point is, there are 200+ plays on the card this weekend, i would think you could find better plays than SYR to give your money to. I saw Iowa play LIVE in week 1 and they are not a very good team at this point in the season. SYR couldn't do anything against them. I just don't see how you can circle a team that has scored 12 freeking points all year long as a good play, regardless of whether or not ILL should be favored by 12 points. GL!...if you play it to all you guys...:thumbs:

[dananderson32]

so i guess the oddsmaker just feels really happy and joyful and said, i think i will give everyone a nice freebie on saturday. if it looks too good to be true it probably is. how many times have you seen an oddsmaker set a line that is wayy off. usually it is to bait people into taking the wrong side and that side ends up being the sucker play. to me, this line tells you who the oddsmaker thinks will win. i just want to know one thing (keep in mind just because you don't like 1 side doesn't mean you have to play the other side).......how can you play on a team, i don't give a **** how many points they are getting that has only scored 12 points and is as ****ty as SYR is? hey, it might cover, who knows....probably will, but i can think of about 100 different plays on SAT that deserve my money more than an AWFUL SYR team. BTW, jim brown is not playing on SAT FYI.

yeah i know syr sucks .......but juice williams -12.5 on the road.......i just dont see them covering that # they might but ill take my chances on cuse

[FlyersFan]

when i saw that -12.5 on the road i thought it was crazy too......i love cuse on saturday

so i guess the oddsmaker just feels really happy and joyful and said, i think i will give everyone a nice freebie on saturday. if it looks too good to be true it probably is. how many times have you seen an oddsmaker set a line that is wayy off. usually it is to bait people into taking the wrong side and that side ends up being the sucker play. to me, this line tells you who the oddsmaker thinks will win. i just want to know one thing (keep in mind just because you don't like 1 side doesn't mean you have to play the other side).......how can you play on a team, i don't give a **** how many points they are getting that has only scored 12 points and is as ****ty as SYR is? hey, it might cover, who knows....probably will, but i can think of about 100 different plays on SAT that deserve my money more than an AWFUL SYR team. BTW, jim brown is not playing on SAT FYI.