Illinois @ Syracuse

[FlyersFan]

Stif- GL!......i agree that the house wins and you want to side with them. I still want to ask you one question about your thoughts on this game and then i will leave it at that. How do you come up with 12 1/2 as a good number (not calling you out, i am really just curious) in this game? The numbers i have seen aren't far off enough for me to make a play on either side. I certainly still think you will go broke more times than not taking a team like ILL -12 1/2 on the road no matter who they play. But it doesnt mean 12 1/2 justifies SYR. I guess on the flip side, i don't know what you're seeing to put you on SYR this week? Nobody has given me any reasons to play them. You're looking for reasons not to, but you really haven't said why you are on them other than ILL sucks. But SYR sucks too. How do you know who sucks worse and by how much? How can you be sure that 12 1/2 is an inflated line if we don't know what the true number should be? What if the number is actually -14 ILL? That is the part i don't get about how people are landing on SYR. All the focus has been on ILL not being any good. Truth of the matter is that neither is SYR. And i have seen nothing posted or said to convince me that ILL isn't 12 1/2 points better than SYR. And SYR is just as prone as ILL is to having a ton of turnovers. Thx!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah, Stif....I knew you weren't referring to us guys I mentioned as the public persay.......and when I was giving my example of people fading the public blindly "just because", I wasn't referring to you at all....I know that is only a starting point for you, and you take many different angles from there....I appreciate what you put into capping a game.

Thanks for you info....GL tonight!

[FlyersFan]

for what it's worth, usually most of my info i use from others comes available friday and friday night. but the 3 sources i did check that have opinions on this game went

a) "number is probably just a hair high"

b) "illinois by 11 or so"

c) "game isn't worth touching"

one source that is accurate not enough to weight very much had a final of ILL 22-15.

just some more information. i know you are playing it stiff, but just posting this for anyone else who might be on the fence.

[Stifler's Mom]

for what it's worth, usually most of my info i use from others comes available friday and friday night. but the 3 sources i did check that have opinions on this game went

a) "number is probably just a hair high"

b) "illinois by 11 or so"

c) "game isn't worth touching"

one source that is accurate not enough to weight very much had a final of ILL 22-15.

just some more information. i know you are playing it stiff, but just posting this for anyone else who might be on the fence.

If you're saying this info comes from sharp players, you're right....the game isn't worth touching when you're laying $10K or more down. Exactly, I agree 100%. Then again, neither are 95% of the other picks I see posted here worth touching. I never thought or claimed there was or would be sharp money on SYR.

Now factor in that the best of players hits about 55% in an average year, and what do these opinions really mean? Since these people really have no opinion on the game, the chance that they're "right on" with their prediction is even less IMO, since they only play what they feel are the strongest plays. So they can be tossed right out the window as far as I'm concerned....as anyone can flip a coin and be right 50% of the time, and that's about what I estimate the opinions of anyone who doesn't have a real opinion at.

I have tried explaining my stance on this game, but maybe I'm doing a poor job. Who knows.

I feel these is value in this line. SYR has played 2 good teams, and IMO it better prepares them for this one than losing to what is IMO a pretty overrated Missouri team and beating a DIV-IIA school that HAD A LOSING RECORD last year....and not even beating them soundly.

ILL is turnover prone, and doesn't play very good defense. They're mostly young and inexperienced. That equates to a ****ty road fave. Even a "****ty" team like SYR should find some success moving the ball against them, and should be able to benefit from potential turnovers.

For these reasons, IMO there's a far better chance of SYR winning ourtight than ILL winning by 20 or 30. If this is true, it means the line is in my favor. No one knows what is going to happen in any game, so if you put yourself in a situation to cash more often than not on as many of your plays as possible, you have the best chance to come out ahead.

There are no statistical advantages I know of, or useless trends dating back to 1974, or anything else. For me, this is one play of many, and it is a situational play where I feel I'm getting +12.5 on SYR against a not all that great (at least not yet - I do feel they have future potential) ILL team in a potentially bad situation, playing against a SYR team that the public is down on because they've looked bad against 2 teams that are better than ILL, and therefore the line has been shaded in my favor to try and get even action by gametime.

So my bottom line is that I'm relatively certain the line is in my favor here, and that's all I ask, when making any play, because if you can consistantly get the line in your favor, you will come out ahead because the 1 pt and 1/2 pt losses will turn into pushes, and the pushes will turn into wins.

This game, like any other, could end up ILL 52 - SYR 0, and I'll look like a tool for thinking SYR had a chance. Then again, SYR could win outright, and I'll look pretty smart. Either of which would be overreacting. All I'm saying is that I believe SYR has a better shot at covering this line then ILL does.

I know that's not how most people cap games, but it works for me.