Week 4 college ball early leans, let me know what you think...

[flmmkrz]

nothing locked in but ok -20 that I got earlybut thats it for now but these are my early leans and after the beating I took in the nfl sunday I have to say im a little hesistant in my take on all things football right now so let me know your thoughts...

Miami ohio + 13.5 right now , if this hits 14 im looking at it.

Ball State +21.5, let down game after usc for nebraska and the cards can play

UCLA -6, im a glutton but if the bruins have any pride they would have to take this one

Florida -21, potential let down spot but if they show up with anything they easily roll

Northwestern +22, I know duke made them look stupid last week but Bacher is better than 2 ints and o tds he put up last week and im still not sold on ohios offense.

G tech -3.5, virginias ****ty team barely got by unc they aren't keeping this close imo

Arizona +17, look ahead spot for Cal as they'll get Oregon next week and Tuitama can ball enough to keep zona close.

South Florida -13.5, unc found a way to make virginia look good last week, usf rolls

Maryland +3, hodges is awful and I like the way Lattimore runs

Clemson -7.5, if it hits 7 im in. Better on both sides of the ball here.

Wyoming -3.5 , Ohio is bad on offense and wyoming good on defense, they should be able to score enough to win this fairly easily.

Purdue -13.5 , minny cant stop anybody and purdues offense is very good, purdue gets a few stops on d and 2 scores should be doable.

UNLV +8.5 , utah got its big win and I dont believe the rebels d is as bad as it looked vs hawaii. Let down for utah and a team hungry at home in unlv.

so thoughts?

and any other games you think I should look into?

[FlyersFan]

flmrrz- a couple things. UAZ is not a look ahead for CAL. they beat CAL last year and knocked them out of the Rose Bowl. Payback is coming according to the local information on the game. CAL does have injuries which is why i may leave that one alone. UAZ is a mess right now. 2nd.....if NWU only scored 13 pionts on Duke, how are they going to score on OSU. I watched the OSU game from the stadium vs. UW and they are just a darn good defense. When UW hit the 30 yard line that was it. And give OSU's offense some credit. They rolled up 450 in a very balanced attack vs. UW. That was the first road game for the QB who looked much better in the 2H than the first. The ONLY way NWU covers this one is if OSU is uninspired. NWU will be lucky to find the end zone 1 time in this one. If you play NWU, you had better hope OSU only scores in the 20's. Love your Clemson play. I will be on them as well. My numbers on the FLA game show 28, so i do think that line is short. Also love USF minus the spot vs. UNC.

GL with whatever you play.

[flmmkrz]

flmrrz- a couple things. UAZ is not a look ahead for CAL. they beat CAL last year and knocked them out of the Rose Bowl. Payback is coming according to the local information on the game. CAL does have injuries which is why i may leave that one alone. UAZ is a mess right now. 2nd.....if NWU only scored 13 pionts on Duke, how are they going to score on OSU. I watched the OSU game from the stadium vs. UW and they are just a darn good defense. When UW hit the 30 yard line that was it. And give OSU's offense some credit. They rolled up 450 in a very balanced attack vs. UW. That was the first road game for the QB who looked much better in the 2H than the first. The ONLY way NWU covers this one is if OSU is uninspired. NWU will be lucky to find the end zone 1 time in this one. If you play NWU, you had better hope OSU only scores in the 20's. Love your Clemson play. I will be on them as well. My numbers on the FLA game show 28, so i do think that line is short. Also love USF minus the spot vs. UNC.

GL with whatever you play.

Good info ff :thumbs: that's what I was lookin for.

I only thought cal might look ahead as Oregons looked very good this year and the winner of that one will have some standings implications where this one a win might be enough to satiate them. I'll just lay off the game.

I'll likely lay off the OSU game as well, for me it was NWU or no play and you've said enough to convince me its nothing.

[FlyersFan]

call me crazy and i know most will, but MSU is not a 2 TD favorite over ND on the road. MSU sucks ass. They beat an awful UAB team, they barely squeaked by BGSU and they barely squeeked by a terrible PITT team minus a whole bunch of folks. This is a complete overreaction to the ND situation and it is giving MSU wayyy too much credit. I think ND covers this number (14). And yeah, i know how bad ND has been, but so is MSU. ND has played Penn State, Michigan and GTECH, all of which are much better than MSU (though i think GTECH is overrated right now due to the ND showing). This is a step wayyyy down in class and i think ND covers the number.

Also like BYU to bounce back. AFA is playing wayy above their heads right now talent wise. I don't think AFA has the offense to hang with BYU. Debating a play on this one.

Haven't really looked at much else.

I do like UCLA, but they are such a poorly coached team i hate betting on them. Duhh-rell is an idiot. His teams are sloppy and ill prepared each week. Washington, however, put a ton into that OSU game. In reading the local papers before and after the game, that was kind of their "statement" game that they were back, and let me tell you, they got their ass and their lunch handed to them in the 2H. OSU just rolled over them and UW was a little deflated after that one. That may carry over into this week. I actually debated a 1H play on UCLA thinking UCLA would come out with some energy after last week and UW may be alittle flat to start the game after last weekend's debacle at home.

love CFB....can't beat talking the game....GL!

[FlyersFan]

one other interesting play is New Mexico State +17 at Auburn. Auburn's offense sucks big time. And if NMSU doesn't hang with Auburn the whole game, you have a great chance at a back door cover because NMSU throws throws and throws some more. I don't see how Auburn should be laying 17 points to anyone right now. They are 0-3 ATS so far and haven't come close to covering as a favorite and have lost 2 of the 3 SU as heavy chalk.

[Daws1089]

great stuff right here. I'll have more input as i research more, but right now i really like gtech.

[FlyersFan]

flmrrz- i tell you why i like OSU and why i wouldn't play NWU. OSU's O-line is starting to really gel. They ran all over Washington, and i get the feeling they are just going to pound NWU and wear them down. Their 3rd string RB is the kid who scored the TDon the last playof the game vs. UW. he broke ginn's ohio 100m record and is just lights out fast. so if he is in in the 4Q and they are up, they are still going to be pounding NWU on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised to see like a 17-3 halftime score and about a 44-6 final.

[flmmkrz]

flmrrz- i tell you why i like OSU and why i wouldn't play NWU. OSU's O-line is starting to really gel. They ran all over Washington, and i get the feeling they are just going to pound NWU and wear them down. Their 3rd string RB is the kid who scored the TDon the last playof the game vs. UW. he broke ginn's ohio 100m record and is just lights out fast. so if he is in in the 4Q and they are up, they are still going to be pounding NWU on the ground. I wouldn't be surprised to see like a 17-3 halftime score and about a 44-6 final.

hmm, do you like them enough to take the points with them? I'm convinced enough to lay off the play on nwu, but you've got me thinking osu might handle this easily

I don't know anything about the nmsu program but I would agree that the team would have to be something awful to not be able to stay within 17 of auburn

[FlyersFan]

hmm, do you like them enough to take the points with them? I'm convinced enough to lay off the play on nwu, but you've got me thinking osu might handle this easily

I don't know anything about the nmsu program but I would agree that the team would have to be something awful to not be able to stay within 17 of auburn

flmrrz- for me it is OSU or nothing. NWU has nothing up front to stop OSU. and this is the big 10 opener and i would be surprised to see OSU flat for it. You always want to get off on the right foot in conference play, and i think OSU took a ton of momentum out of that game last week. dude- tressel jumped out on the field almost to the numbers when the buckeyes blocked the FG to start the half. they reallyplayed a great 2H after opening a little shaky. NWU just is awful this year. They should have lost to Nevada, they played Northeastern and won 27-0...so what and then they lost to Duke who is just atrocious. Now they travel TO columbus to play OSU. If OSU's O-line comes to play NWU is going to be on the field all day defensively as OSU takes 7 and 10 yard chunks. And i'm telling you, the freshman Saine is the fastest kid i have seen. he gets to the corner and it is over. I need to read a little more from OSU later in the week before i decide if i am going to play it or not.

as far as NMSU goes, they have a great QB and they can roll up a ton of offense. They are what they are, but i think 17 is a nice number there. I think AUB is reeling, as well. They have lost 2 in a row at home and im not so sure if this team doesn't have issues offensively that go beyond lets circle the wagons. NMSU beat a decent UTEP team last weekend. Backdoor cover is definitely in play.

im not on either one yet, but i have my eye on both. i am hoping to get more than 17 with NMSU later in the week. i can't believe the public would hammer NMSU. but less than 17 the value diminishes a lot, IMO. Below 16 it is a no play.

GL!

[JayCol]

I agree with FlyersFan about tOSU. It is a young team with still something to prove. Tressel has always coached such kids well. The players are not tired or complacent, they are lean and hungry. They are going to hammer NWU.

JC

[Peterdragan66]

Hey, just my 2 cents...Northwesterns offense is bad, like syracuse bad..they lost to Duke at home LW. L2 weeks could not cover vs below average teams..Easy cover for the Bucks.


Love the Purdue play, Minn is awful....:beerbang:

[flmmkrz]

Definitely off NWU and just avoiding the game altogether.

I'm hearing UCLA's dline is dinged up anybody hear anything about this? I locked in ucla this morning at -6 I wanted to make sure I could get the line below 7 without the chalk. May still buy out of it if this is true. Not that their d showed much last week but that has to be the strength of the ucla defense and they'll need the pressure against UW.

And i've been looking at this unlv game I don't just like it with the points I think they take this one outright. Some good value in the +280 im locking that in. Anybody else liking the rebels in this one

[FlyersFan]

I would side with you on UNLV. I definitely wouldn't play Utah, that's for sure. I also think you are getting good line value in another line overreaction to Utah's win. I read some stuff in the local papers on UCLA and you wouldn't believe it. They said they had a horrible week of practice and knew they weren't ready for the game. One Utah player said after the first play that he knew UCLA wasn't ready and they said UCLA quit in the game. I think UTAH is a lot closer to the team that played AFA than the one that beat a flat and poorly coached UCLA team.

[flmmkrz]

I would side with you on UNLV. I definitely wouldn't play Utah, that's for sure. I also think you are getting good line value in another line overreaction to Utah's win. I read some stuff in the local papers on UCLA and you wouldn't believe it. They said they had a horrible week of practice and knew they weren't ready for the game. One Utah player said after the first play that he knew UCLA wasn't ready and they said UCLA quit in the game. I think UTAH is a lot closer to the team that played AFA than the one that beat a flat and poorly coached UCLA team.

WOW, I can't believe an 11th ranked team could come in so unprepared and for the other team to know that early that the other team had thrown in the towel is brutal. Im on ucla right now but im torn, they should want to put on a better show this week and have the talent to do it but if a teams that flakey whats to say they bother showing up this week? I agree on your assessment of utah, they are not a great team but this big win has a lot of bettors jumping on the bandwagon. Chance to make some good money fading them this week if we're both right on them being more like the team that afa and not the one that trounced the bruins

[FlyersFan]

WOW, I can't believe an 11th ranked team could come in so unprepared and for the other team to know that early that the other team had thrown in the towel is brutal. Im on ucla right now but im torn, they should want to put on a better show this week and have the talent to do it but if a teams that flakey whats to say they bother showing up this week? I agree on your assessment of utah, they are not a great team but this big win has a lot of bettors jumping on the bandwagon. Chance to make some good money fading them this week if we're both right on them being more like the team that afa and not the one that trounced the bruins

flmrrz- UCLA players in the paper admitted that. Just brutal. They have been calling for duh-rells head all week here. i think a 1H UCLA play is the best play, IMO. UW may be a little flat to start the game after getting their bubble burst last week vs. OSU. One thing about UCLA you have to know, you never know what you're getting. They are such a poorly coached and prepared team. They lost to a brutal UAZ team like 48-14 last year or the year before. Then they go and beat USC. I will say that they do play better vs. the better teams like Oregon, USC, CAL and they tend to come up with clunkers vs. the bad teams like Arizona, Oregon State....even Utah. I am not sure where UW falls in the mix. UCLA has the talent to blow this team off the field. I like them a lot better at home, though. They tend to lay a lot of their eggs on the road. UCLA -6 "in theory" should be a safe play as they are at home and they aren't playing a horrible team. But you neve know. I will probably play this one 1H. GL!