JoePa's Bowlin 'Em Over Picks

[joepa66]

ALAMO BOWL
DECEMBER 29, 8PM - ESPN
TEXAS A&M vs. PENN STATE


According to ME....JoePa, Penn State should be 10-2 and on its way to somewhere other than the Valero Alamo Bowl. MY NAMESAKE, Joe Paterno and his senior-laden team started the season thinking national championship, not expecting a fifth-place finish in the Big Ten. The Lions need to finish games, which they didn't do late in the season, and avoid letdowns — such as when Michigan State erupted in the second half and left with an upset win in the regular season finale.
While running back Rodney Kinlaw is the main attraction for Penn State's offense, senior (thank God) QB Anthony Morelli is the household name around the Big Ten as the school's single-season record-holder for passing yards. His receiving options include wide receivers Deon Butler, Derrick Williams and Jordan Norwood, all averaging 40 to 50 receiving yards a game. Morelli’s big knocks are holding the ball too long and throwing INTs in big games.
A&M head coach Dennis Franchione resigned and was replaced by Houston Texans offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. Defensive coordinator Gary Darnell will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game.
When Sherman takes over in 2008, he will have only one season with junior QB Stephen McGee, a runner who hasn't found great success as a passer. McGee had one game with more than 250 passing yards this season — Nov. 23 vs. Texas, when he had 362 and three TDs — and five of his 12 TD passes came in the last two games. The nation's 13th-ranked run offense utilizes McGee, bruiser Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson. Lane has 44 career touchdown runs, and Goodson was second on the team with 29 catches behind tight end Martellus Bennett (36).
Because the Aggies throw many short passes off three-step drops, Texas A&M allows few sacks. But Penn State can be a quarterback's nightmare, averaging 3.75 sacks. Expect them to put eight or nine defenders near the line of scrimmage to force McGee to throw. The Lions have a star-studded defense, captained by linebackers Dan Connor and Sean Lee and breakout sophomore defensive end Maurice Evans (121⁄2 sacks).

PICK: ISN'T IT OBVIOUS....LMAO PENN STATE -5


BOWL RECORD: 6 - 6 - 1

[joepa66]

LIBERTY BOWL
DECEMBER 29, 4:30PM - ESPN
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE


Check out Mississippi State's run defense. The Bulldogs give up 159 yards a game on the ground. Arkansas (206), West Virginia (262), Tennessee (211) and LSU (198) found Mississippi State's front seven to be runner-friendly. Even South Carolina, the only other team to beat the Bulldogs, went for 123 yards.
And the nation's leading rusher plays for the other side --- UCF. Kevin Smith leads the nation with 188.3 yards a game and ran for 2,448 yards this season. He led the nation in scoring averaging more than two touchdowns a game and has 29 TDs on 415 carries. He needs 181 yards to break the Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) season rushing record.
Coach Sylvester Croom is banking on Mississippi State's defensive line to contain Smith, who should handle the ball at least 30 times. Croom has game-changers on his defense. DE Titus Brown has eight sacks LB Jamar Chaney is MSU's leader in tackles and played well against Mississippi in the regular-season finale though he was dogged by injuries all season.
Mississippi State's offense is prone to hiccups and scoring droughts. The Bulldogs were outscored by an average of 24.8-22.4 and stand No. 112 of 119 in total offense. QB Wesley Carroll was a third-stringer when this season started. The freshman has a chance to play hero if UCF is dialed in to stop TB Anthony Dixon (81.2 yards a game).

PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3


BOWL RECORD: 5 - 6 - 1

[joepa66]

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
DECEMBER 29, 1PM - ESPN
WAKE FOREST vs. CONNECTICUT


Postseason football is relatively new for Connecticut, which is more accustomed to March Madness than bowl games. The Huskies are bowling for the first time since 2004 after winning a share of the Big East title.
In the age of the spread offense, UConn is disciplined and makes opponents work for points. That's much the same formula another basketball school, Wake Forest, used to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and reach the Orange Bowl last season, when they beat UConn along the way.
The similarities between these teams are striking, though the Demon Deacons boast a more accomplished passer in sophomore Riley Skinner. Skinner wins despite leading the nation's 98th-ranked offense because he makes the most of Wake's chances (28.2 points a game). Wake Forest's solid special teams are led by kickoff returner Kevin Marion (31.3 yards a return).
UConn, eighth in the nation against the pass, has allowed only 11 TD passes in 12 games. The Huskies are No. 31 in total defense and had 27 takeaways compared with only 14 turnovers. RBs Andre Dixon and Donald Brown key a UConn offense averaging 165.3 rushing yards a game, but Wake is 17th in the nation against the run. QB Tyler Lorenzen will want to steer clear of Wake Forest's Alphonso Smith, who's tied for the NCAA lead with eight picks, including four in his last two games.

PICK: WAKE FOREST -2.5


BOWL RECORD: 4 - 6 - 1

[joepa66]

EMERALD NUT BOWL
DECEMBER 28, 8:30PM - ESPN
MARYLAND vs. OREGON STATE


After adding to rival Oregon's misery in the Civil War to end the regular season, Oregon State had thoughts of a Holiday Bowl matchup with Texas. Will the Emerald Bowl and a date with Maryland be good enough for them?
The Beavers surged at the finish, winning six of their final seven games to get to 8-4 overall and 6-3 in the Pacific-10 good for third place. The Emerald Bowl is within driving distance for fans, and coach Mike Riley gets to showcase his team on California recruiting turf. Fans and recruits should like what they see, especially from an attacking defense and an offense that should have RB Yvenson Bernard. He missed the Oregon game because of a knee injury.
While Oregon State was hot down the stretch, Maryland was not. The Terrapins lost four of five games late in the season but shut out North Carolina State 37-0 in the regular-season finale to become bowl eligible at 6-6. Maryland hasn't played a Pac-10 team since losing to Washington in the 1982 Aloha Bowl.
Maryland's offensive numbers 350.6 yards and 24.9 points a game rank in the lower third of the nation, but there is talent. The running game is powered by Keon Lattimore (789 yards) and Lance Ball (763). QB Chris Turner earned the clearance late in the season to open up the offense, and he has a gifted target in Darrius Heyward-Bey (48 receptions, 687 yards, two TDs). Turner will have to be at his best against Oregon State, third nationally in sacks (31/2 a game) and tied for sixth in tackles for loss (8.33).
The Beavers, more than any other Pac-10 team, stack the line to stop the run, forcing teams into predictable passing situations. That's when they force mistakes. The entire linebacker corps Derrick Doggett, Joey LaRocque and Alan Darlin was selected second-team all-Pac-10. Oregon State has six players with at least 81⁄2 tackles for losses. Maryland has two.

PICK: OREGON STATE -4.5


BOWL RECORD: 3 - 6 - 1

[joepa66]

TEXAS BOWL
DECEMBER 28, 8PM - NFL NETWORK
HOUSTON vs. TCU


TCU was hyped as 2007’s version of the 2006 Boise State Broncos. The Horned Frogs opened the season No. 22 in the USA TODAY Coaches' poll and led Texas in the third quarter before losing 34-13 in Week 2. TCU had difficulty replacing QB Jeff Ballard, offensive lineman Aaron Brown was lost with a broken ankle, and DE Tommy Blake missed four consecutive games during a medical leave. So instead of reprising Boise State's run to the BCS, TCU will meet a Houston team with its own issues in the Texas Bowl.
Still, DE Chase Ortiz and RB Joseph Turner picked up the slack as TCU's season progressed. Ortiz led the Mountain West with eight sacks and had 141⁄2 tackles for loss, and TCU gave up only 19.2 points a game. Turner rushed for 226 yards and four TDs in the final regular-season game, a 45-33 victory against San Diego State.
Meanwhile, Cougars coach Art Briles bolted for Baylor after the regular season, and the top lieutenants on offense followed. So Houston might have to rely more on defense than usual, and the Cougars allowed more than 29.9 points a game this season despite being 49th in the nation in total defense.
That puts more pressure on the Cougs offense. Here's the test for TCU's defense: Houston was fourth in the nation in total offense — 513.2 yards a game — and 10th in rushing offense (239.2 yards a game). TB Anthony Alridge was 13th in the nation in all-purpose yards. He was third in the C-USA in rushing — the league boasts two 2,000-yard rushers — and averaged 6.4 yards a carry, and he has the speed to get to the edge and the ability to run between the tackles. He also had three 200-yard receiving games this season. WR Donnie Avery is the Cougars' other dynamite playmaker. He averaged 111.3 yards a game.

PICK: HOUSTON +4


BOWL RECORD: 2 - 6 - 1

[joepa66]

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
DECEMBER 28, 5PM - ESPN
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. MICHIGAN STATE


Boston College lacked the finishing kick to squeeze into the Orange Bowl and was passed over for a Gator Bowl trip in favor of 9-3 Virginia, a team six spots behind BC in the BCS rankings. The Eagles arrive at the Champs Sports Bowl with a point to prove. They are the only 10-win team from a BCS conference playing before Jan. 1.
Boston College won the Atlantic Coast Conference's Atlantic Division with Jeff Jagodzinski, a first-year head coach, and quarterback Matt Ryan in the lead. Ryan threw 607 passes 207 more than any other ACC passer and topped 300 yards in nine games (and 400 four times).
BC doesn't have a big star receiver, and senior running back Andre Callender might be Ryan's favorite passing weapon. Junior Brandon Robinson had 774 yards receiving but has only five catches in the last three games. The defense's strength is the linebackers. Jamie Silva averages 8.8 tackles a game, and Alex Albright, a sophomore, was third in the ACC with 81⁄2 sacks.
One concern for BC is whether it has an answer for Michigan State running back Javon Ringer. He has game-breaking speed, and the Spartans are creative getting him the ball in space. He averaged 112.2 rushing yards a game and caught 34 passes. Jehuu Caulcrick can be a hammer at the goal line for MSU, though he didn't rush for 100 yards in a game this season, he had 21 touchdowns.
If the Eagles put a safety near the line of scrimmage to control the power and pure speed combination of Caulcrick and Ringer, they will need Tribble to lock down junior wide receiver Devin Thomas. He led the Big Ten with 102.2 receiving yards a game (ninth in the nation).


PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +4

BOWL RECORD: 2 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

HOLIDAY BOWL
DECEMBER 27, 8PM - ESPN
ARIZONA STATE vs. TEXAS


The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl always one of the pre-New Year's Day treats features another good matchup, with a first-ever meeting between Texas and Arizona State.
It's also the first battle between coaches Mack Brown and Dennis Erickson. Brown (188-99-1 in 24 years) won the national title in 2005. Erickson (158-67-1 in 19 years) won national titles at Miami (Fla.) in 1989 and 1991.
Erickson is the Pacific-10 coach of the year, guiding the Sun Devils to a league co-championship in his first season. Sure, the schedule included eight home games. But he instilled a confidence that, early in the season, allowed the Sun Devils to storm back after a 14-0 deficit against Colorado and a 19-0 deficit to Oregon State. ASU rolled from there.
Brown, meanwhile, presided over a 9-3 regular season that didn't meet expectations. The Longhorns defense has been shredded at times, especially late in the season and through the air. Texas yielded an average of 35.3 points and 512.5 yards in its last four games. On offense, season-ending injuries to receiver Limas Sweed, tackle Tony Hills and center Dallas Griffin have taken a toll. To motivate the team, Brown declared that all jobs were open in practice before the bowl game.
Overall, the Sun Devils are a solid team that doesn't beat itself and has a confident quarterback in Rudy Carpenter, who finds a way to make plays, because running back Ryan Torain was lost to injury in the seventh game The defense has only one first-team all-Pac-10 player: linebacker Robert James.
Texas has more flash on offense. Colt McCoy has passed for 3,129 yards and is second on the team in rushing with 408 yards. Jamaal Charles led the Big 12 with 121.5 yards a game, and he's averaging 6.3 yards a carry. If this game is anything like Texas' other trips to the Holiday Bowl this decade, it should be a thriller. The Longhorns have a five-point loss to Oregon, a four-point win against Washington and an eight-point loss to Washington State.

PICK: TEXAS -2


BOWL RECORD: 1 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

MOTOR CITY BOWL
DECEMBER 26, 7:30PM - ESPN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE


Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour could decide the outcome of the 2007 Motor City Bowl himself, but the game will most likely come down to how much his defense helps! The Motor City Bowl is a rematch of a Purdue blowout Sept. 15, when the Boilermakers had 583 yards of offense in a 45-22 victory.
Purdue jumped on the Chippewas early and LeFevour ran just seven plays before CMU trailed 17-0, and the Boilermakers led 38-0 into the third quarter. A lot has changed since mid-September. Purdue sputtered late in the season, while the MAC champions averaged 38.6 points a game starting with a 58-38 win at Ball State on Oct. 6.
LeFevour had 40 total touchdowns and was the MAC offensive player of the year. The sophomore ran for 1,008 yards and threw for 3,360. Vince Young is the only other member of the 1,000-3,000 club. He's nifty outside the pocket, averaging 6.5 yards a carry and rushing for 17 touchdowns. His top two receivers are Antonio Brown (98 catches, 909 yards, five TDs) and Bryan Anderson (83-1,003-7), but six players caught at least 20 passes. The Chippewas allowed 35.9 points a game, and nine opponents went for at least 30 points this season.
Boilermakers QB Curtis Painter completed 62.3% of his passes with nine interceptions and was dominant in the early meeting with the Chippewas (29 of 39, 360 yards, three TDs). But he is also streaky and threw three picks in the final two games, losses to Michigan State and Indiana.

PICK: PURDUE -7.5


BOWL RECORD: 0 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

HAWAI'I BOWL
DECEMBER 23, 8PM - ESPN
BOISE STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA


The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl appears to be the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. Boise State followed up on its 2006 season with a 10-2 record and a No. 24 spot in the BCS rankings. East Carolina went 7-5 and squandered a chance to play for the Conference USA championship when it lost to a Marshall team that finished 3-9.
Boise State might have been back in the BCS if not for a 39-27 loss to Hawaii. Broncos RB Ian Johnson started the season on the Heisman radar. He never became a serious candidate but had a fine season (1,030 yards and 16 touchdowns in 10 games).
The surprise star was first-year starting QB Taylor Tharp, who ranks eighth nationally in passing efficiency. He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,070 yards, 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions. BSU averages 42.8 points a game, fifth in the nation.
East Carolina's offense doesn't have that kind of explosiveness, but one of the tag-team quarterbacks Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney can get hot. This is also a chance to see one of the nation's under-rated talents, Chris Johnson. He rates behind only Michigan's Mike Hart among senior running backs, according to NFLdraftscout.com. Johnson (5-11, 195) is a breakaway threat who was first-team all-league as a kick returner and second-team as a running back. He leads the nation in all-purpose yards (212.7 yards a game) and has scored 22 touchdowns.
Boise State's defense has been good for most of the season but had major breakdowns against Nevada and Hawaii. Other than Nevada, though, almost nobody had success running against BSU (114.9 rushing yards a game).

PICK: BOISE STATE -10.5


BOWL RECORD: 0 - 4 - 1

[hodown]

regarding ucla, scoresandodds has olson as questionable and cowan as out

[hodown]

nice writeups joepa.. i follow you as well on all of them, and i lean to memphis but also think thatll be tite

[manmythlegend]

I like every single one of your picks so far joe....that has me feelin pretty good headin into this bowl season, lets make some cash :thumbs:

[Whaleydog]

Good Luck with your bowls this year Joepa!

[joepa66]

LAS VEGAS BOWL
DECEMBER 22, 8PM - ESPN
UCLA vs. BYU


The Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl features one team confident and excited to be here (Mountain West champ Brigham Young) and one eager to forget an inconsistent regular season (UCLA).
The big news for the Bruins is that their head coach Karl Dorrell was fired two days after a regular-season-ending loss to Southern California, ending his five-year tenure. The team, which suffered several injuries, tried to win games late in the season with a walk-on at running back and a quarterback who started the season at receiver. UCLA will have top QBs Patrick Cowan and Ben Olsen healthy for the bowl game, the only time all season that both will be 100%. With either one, the Bruins weren't going to blow anybody away with their offense, which ranks 90th nationally at 22.9 points a game.
That output is about what UCLA's offense got when it met BYU at the Rose Bowl on Sept. 8. The Bruins won 27-17, helped by Trey Brown's interception return for a TD. At the time, BYU QB Max Hall was making only his second career start, his first on the road. Freshman Harvey Unga, a bulldozer of a running back, was just getting started. The Cougars are much stronger now.
Hall (3,617 yards, 24 touchdowns, 28th nationally in passing efficiency) developed into an all-MWC first-teamer. Unga ran for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding 41 catches and four receiving touchdowns.
Although it appears the situation is reversed, consider UCLA's postseason last year. The Bruins had all the advantages, coming off an upset of Southern California and playing in its home-state Emerald Bowl against a Florida State team coming off its worst regular season in about two decades. None of that mattered as the Seminoles dominated 44-27.

PICK: BYU - 5.5

BOWL RECORD: 0 - 3 - 1

[joepa66]

NEW MEXICO BOWL
DECEMBER 22, 4:30PM - ESPN
NEW MEXICO vs. NEVADA


New Mexico gets a second chance to win its home bowl game, an opportunity it squandered last season when it lost 20-12 to San Jose State in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos are 0-4 in the postseason under coach Rocky Long. They have lost their last five appearances and haven't won a bowl since beating Western Michigan 28-12 in the Aviation Bowl in 1961. AND, they just lost their starting TB due to academics!
New Mexico picked up a big win at Arizona early this season but lost two of its final four regular-season games. The Lobos (8-4) were shut out by TCU and scored only 10 points while losing to Utah. Those are two of the best defenses in the Mountain West; Nevada isn't in that class.
That's good news for UNM QB Donovan Porterie and the Lobos' pair of all-conference receivers, Travis Brown and Marcus Smith. Brown will look to atone for two fumbles in last season's bowl game.
Nevada squeezed into the postseason with a 6-6 record as the fourth team from the Western Athletic Conference, making the field when league champ Hawaii moved up to the BCS. The Wolf Pack field an entertaining offense, led by QB Colin Kaepernick, the WAC freshman of the year. Taking over as an injury replacement in the fifth game, Kaepernick completed 120 of 216 passes for 2,038 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The team's MVP is RB Luke Lippincott, who led the WAC with 115 rushing yards a game.

PICK: NEVADA +3.5

BOWL RECORD: 0 - 2 - 1