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LAST WEEK
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (2-0)(+4.00 units)
Regular Plays (4-3)(+0.70 units)
Overall (7-4)(+4.40 units)
FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (4-0)(+8.00 units)
Regular Plays (6-7)(-1.70 units)
Overall (11-8)(+6.00 units)
Not a bad second week in college football. Split my two best bets. My loser Oregon St….. I was way off on that one and my winner Ole Miss was a semi-easy winner. Hit both strong plays for the second week in a row with East Carolina and S Mississippi and I won 4 of 7 regular plays for a small profit. Feeling like I know what I am doing (even if I don’t) and ready for week number three.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK THREE
Iowa St +13.5 vs Iowa (best bet)………..Love that this line went up to 13.5, I would have taken 10. This game scares me to death, but sometimes the best bets are the scariest ones. Iowa is supposed to be really improved and have a shot a winning the Big10 this year. Iowa State is never all that good and there is no doubt that Iowa is the better team…they always have been. But……this is a rivalry and these two don’t like each other. Iowa State usually saves its best for Iowa most years. Both teams are off to good starts at 2-0 and playing with plenty of confidence. Part of the reason I think State has had so much success in the past is because this game means more to them than it does Iowa. Iowa has a shot at the conference where Iowa State does not have a prayer. Iowa would never overlook this game being a state rivalry, but it is not a conference game for them. Sure there is a chance Iowa could blow them out, they are way overdue for that to happen, but I don’t see it. If State can get on the board first I think they have a great chance of covering. If history has anything to say, it will be a close, back and forth game and it will not be won by double digits. Getting almost two touchdowns if too good an offer for me to not make it a best bet this week.
Rice +7 vs Vanderbilt (best bet)……………..This one really scares me, even more than Iowa State. Vanderbilt was supposed to really suck this year, yet they have come out and won outright both games as underdogs and now they are at home playing a team with no defense at all. Should be a route…don’t you think. Well in the words of Lee Corso “not so fast my friend”. Maybe Vandy is going to have a magical season and destroy Rice, but I doubt it. Vandy has always been a team that plays well as a dog, but as soon as you think they are good and they are laying points, something happens to them. Vandy for me has always been a go with as a dog and a go against as a favorite. Vandy has a solid defense, but they are facing a Rice offense that can do it all. Even though Rice has no defense, I don’t think Vandy has the personel to take full advantage of it. Don’t get me wrong, Vandy will score more points than they usually do, but they are also going to give up more than they have been in this one. I think Vandy’s nice start to this season will contine and they will find a way to win this game, but my money is on those 7 points. I was tempted to buy a ½ point, but I did not. I actually think this line could drop to 6.5, so I thought I better just lock in the seven now and see what happens.
Virginia +11 vs Connecticut (strong play)……………….Sometimes you just have to go with a gut feeling. This just feels like a boring defensive game to me. I just read where Virginia’s QB probably will not play either, but that does not bother me. Both teams rely more on defense than offense. Fairly low total at 35.5 also suggests a defensive game. In a defensive game those 11 points look mighty generous to me. U Conn is very similar to Vandy in my eyes as well. They are a very good dog, but cannot be trusted as a favorite. U Conn is definitely the better team, especially at home, but not by this many points. I just see too much value here and I am grabbing those points. Most Connecticut wins by is 10 and I doubt even that much.
Buffalo -6 vs Temple (strong play)………….I must be out of my mind playing a game like this as a strong play. Won’t be the first time somebody has called my crazy. All the talk before the season started was how Temple was the team to play and why not, they got their entire team back from last year. Most of the time that is a great thing, but not always. I am sure they are improved, but 22 starters back from a losing team does not necessarily make them a winning team. Buffalo has nearly as many starters back as Temple does and Buffalo has shown some signs of life past couple of years. Lets face it, Temple is Temple and they will always be Temple in football. Talk college hoops and maybe they have a chance, but this is football. Buffalo gave Pitt fits at Pitt last week. Then again giving a team fits that is coached by Dave (lets get the least out of our players) Wannstadt, does not mean that much anymore. Buffalo destroyed them last year at Temple and while they may not beat them as bad this year even though it is at Buffalo, Temple has not made up that much ground on them over the summer. Buffalo laying less than a TD at home is a deal.
Georgia Tech +6.5 vs Virginia Tech (regular play)…………..This ones reminds me of the Virgina/Connecticut game. Both teams rely on defense. Virginia Tech always a great dog, but cannot trust them as a favorite. They always lose games they are not supposed to. Va Tech is always a tough place to play, but something does not feel right about this team to me this year. They have always relied on special teams for it feels like at least one score a game, but you cannot count on that. I am not a big fan of Georgia Tech either, they have always been so up and down, but they showed me a lot winning at BC last week and I am hoping that carries over into this week. I would have thought this line been closer to 10 in Blacksburg. The line tells me this is going to be a close game. That does not mean I will win, seven points is a close game and I would lose, but I will try it. Only for one unit though.
S Mississippi +2.5 vs Arkansas St (regular play)………..Arkansas State is probably better than most would think, but I just cannot bring myself to take them giving points to a team from a better conference. S Miss is used to playing road games against the SEC, so this should be no big deal for them. I will take the better team, from the better conference getting points. Sure this could lose, but it is a no brainer for me. Then again there must be a reason why Ark St is favored, that is why this is only a one unit play.
Ohio State +10.5 vs USC (regular play)………….Best game of the weekend, so I had to put something on it. USC is the better team and they are certainly capable of blowing the Buckeyes out at home, but something tells me they won’t. If this were a bowl game, I might actually take USC, but it is not. Ohio State has just about everybody back this year and should have gained a lot from last years experience. OSU has much more to prove than USC does. All the pressure is on USC here. They are expected to win and maybe even win big. No pressure on OSU and they will be more loose and maybe even run a few trick plays. I would not even be shocked to see Ohio State shock the college world and win this game. There is so much talk about how great this new USC QB is going to be. No pressure there! I think USC will win this game, but it will be a dog fight. 10.5 is just too many points. I had to play this one, but again only for a unit.
S Carolina +7 vs Georgia (regular play)…………I am simply taking this because so many people are on Georgia and many of them have them as a super strong play. Winning on the road in the SEC in never easy, even against lower echelon teams, which we all know S Carolina is not. Any Spurrier coached team is always worth a shot as a home dog, you just never know what he will do. I think S Car has the defense to hang with Georgia. I wish this were a night game, it would be stronger for me, but it is not. Going against the grain and most people here. Only one unit though. Some good cappers are on Georgia and I hate going against good cappers.
Baylor -1 vs Washington State (regular play)…………..From what I have read Washington State is a mess. There is something about this Baylor team that when they are playing at home I bet them….I don’t know why though. I guess I like to root for teams that were horrible for years and show signs of being competitive. No real reason other than I am stuck on this team. Call me crazy…go ahead.
I am pretty sure I am working all weekend which really sucks, so I won’t be around much. I work with a guy who is horrible at college football and he always gives me his best bet every Friday, so if I have time I might come back and add his fade to my list.
Good Luck Everybody!! Have a great weekend.
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (2-0)(+4.00 units)
Regular Plays (4-3)(+0.70 units)
Overall (7-4)(+4.40 units)
FOR THE SEASON
Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (4-0)(+8.00 units)
Regular Plays (6-7)(-1.70 units)
Overall (11-8)(+6.00 units)
Not a bad second week in college football. Split my two best bets. My loser Oregon St….. I was way off on that one and my winner Ole Miss was a semi-easy winner. Hit both strong plays for the second week in a row with East Carolina and S Mississippi and I won 4 of 7 regular plays for a small profit. Feeling like I know what I am doing (even if I don’t) and ready for week number three.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK THREE
Iowa St +13.5 vs Iowa (best bet)………..Love that this line went up to 13.5, I would have taken 10. This game scares me to death, but sometimes the best bets are the scariest ones. Iowa is supposed to be really improved and have a shot a winning the Big10 this year. Iowa State is never all that good and there is no doubt that Iowa is the better team…they always have been. But……this is a rivalry and these two don’t like each other. Iowa State usually saves its best for Iowa most years. Both teams are off to good starts at 2-0 and playing with plenty of confidence. Part of the reason I think State has had so much success in the past is because this game means more to them than it does Iowa. Iowa has a shot at the conference where Iowa State does not have a prayer. Iowa would never overlook this game being a state rivalry, but it is not a conference game for them. Sure there is a chance Iowa could blow them out, they are way overdue for that to happen, but I don’t see it. If State can get on the board first I think they have a great chance of covering. If history has anything to say, it will be a close, back and forth game and it will not be won by double digits. Getting almost two touchdowns if too good an offer for me to not make it a best bet this week.
Rice +7 vs Vanderbilt (best bet)……………..This one really scares me, even more than Iowa State. Vanderbilt was supposed to really suck this year, yet they have come out and won outright both games as underdogs and now they are at home playing a team with no defense at all. Should be a route…don’t you think. Well in the words of Lee Corso “not so fast my friend”. Maybe Vandy is going to have a magical season and destroy Rice, but I doubt it. Vandy has always been a team that plays well as a dog, but as soon as you think they are good and they are laying points, something happens to them. Vandy for me has always been a go with as a dog and a go against as a favorite. Vandy has a solid defense, but they are facing a Rice offense that can do it all. Even though Rice has no defense, I don’t think Vandy has the personel to take full advantage of it. Don’t get me wrong, Vandy will score more points than they usually do, but they are also going to give up more than they have been in this one. I think Vandy’s nice start to this season will contine and they will find a way to win this game, but my money is on those 7 points. I was tempted to buy a ½ point, but I did not. I actually think this line could drop to 6.5, so I thought I better just lock in the seven now and see what happens.
Virginia +11 vs Connecticut (strong play)……………….Sometimes you just have to go with a gut feeling. This just feels like a boring defensive game to me. I just read where Virginia’s QB probably will not play either, but that does not bother me. Both teams rely more on defense than offense. Fairly low total at 35.5 also suggests a defensive game. In a defensive game those 11 points look mighty generous to me. U Conn is very similar to Vandy in my eyes as well. They are a very good dog, but cannot be trusted as a favorite. U Conn is definitely the better team, especially at home, but not by this many points. I just see too much value here and I am grabbing those points. Most Connecticut wins by is 10 and I doubt even that much.
Buffalo -6 vs Temple (strong play)………….I must be out of my mind playing a game like this as a strong play. Won’t be the first time somebody has called my crazy. All the talk before the season started was how Temple was the team to play and why not, they got their entire team back from last year. Most of the time that is a great thing, but not always. I am sure they are improved, but 22 starters back from a losing team does not necessarily make them a winning team. Buffalo has nearly as many starters back as Temple does and Buffalo has shown some signs of life past couple of years. Lets face it, Temple is Temple and they will always be Temple in football. Talk college hoops and maybe they have a chance, but this is football. Buffalo gave Pitt fits at Pitt last week. Then again giving a team fits that is coached by Dave (lets get the least out of our players) Wannstadt, does not mean that much anymore. Buffalo destroyed them last year at Temple and while they may not beat them as bad this year even though it is at Buffalo, Temple has not made up that much ground on them over the summer. Buffalo laying less than a TD at home is a deal.
Georgia Tech +6.5 vs Virginia Tech (regular play)…………..This ones reminds me of the Virgina/Connecticut game. Both teams rely on defense. Virginia Tech always a great dog, but cannot trust them as a favorite. They always lose games they are not supposed to. Va Tech is always a tough place to play, but something does not feel right about this team to me this year. They have always relied on special teams for it feels like at least one score a game, but you cannot count on that. I am not a big fan of Georgia Tech either, they have always been so up and down, but they showed me a lot winning at BC last week and I am hoping that carries over into this week. I would have thought this line been closer to 10 in Blacksburg. The line tells me this is going to be a close game. That does not mean I will win, seven points is a close game and I would lose, but I will try it. Only for one unit though.
S Mississippi +2.5 vs Arkansas St (regular play)………..Arkansas State is probably better than most would think, but I just cannot bring myself to take them giving points to a team from a better conference. S Miss is used to playing road games against the SEC, so this should be no big deal for them. I will take the better team, from the better conference getting points. Sure this could lose, but it is a no brainer for me. Then again there must be a reason why Ark St is favored, that is why this is only a one unit play.
Ohio State +10.5 vs USC (regular play)………….Best game of the weekend, so I had to put something on it. USC is the better team and they are certainly capable of blowing the Buckeyes out at home, but something tells me they won’t. If this were a bowl game, I might actually take USC, but it is not. Ohio State has just about everybody back this year and should have gained a lot from last years experience. OSU has much more to prove than USC does. All the pressure is on USC here. They are expected to win and maybe even win big. No pressure on OSU and they will be more loose and maybe even run a few trick plays. I would not even be shocked to see Ohio State shock the college world and win this game. There is so much talk about how great this new USC QB is going to be. No pressure there! I think USC will win this game, but it will be a dog fight. 10.5 is just too many points. I had to play this one, but again only for a unit.
S Carolina +7 vs Georgia (regular play)…………I am simply taking this because so many people are on Georgia and many of them have them as a super strong play. Winning on the road in the SEC in never easy, even against lower echelon teams, which we all know S Carolina is not. Any Spurrier coached team is always worth a shot as a home dog, you just never know what he will do. I think S Car has the defense to hang with Georgia. I wish this were a night game, it would be stronger for me, but it is not. Going against the grain and most people here. Only one unit though. Some good cappers are on Georgia and I hate going against good cappers.
Baylor -1 vs Washington State (regular play)…………..From what I have read Washington State is a mess. There is something about this Baylor team that when they are playing at home I bet them….I don’t know why though. I guess I like to root for teams that were horrible for years and show signs of being competitive. No real reason other than I am stuck on this team. Call me crazy…go ahead.
I am pretty sure I am working all weekend which really sucks, so I won’t be around much. I work with a guy who is horrible at college football and he always gives me his best bet every Friday, so if I have time I might come back and add his fade to my list.
Good Luck Everybody!! Have a great weekend.
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