Week 6 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

Any thoughts on Tulsa (-14) over Rice ???

I think Tulsa may be "that" team this year that screws everything up at the end of the year. If they have a decent D performance, I see them winning by 20+ this week. Christ, Vandy beat Rice by 17 and don't have near the offensive fire power.

here is a classic case of what i always say about this site. i never see anyone outside of Udog and a couple of others looking at totals. Go back and look at the trends in this game totals wise. It is off the charts. I don't know where the line will come but i can see Tulsa putting up about 60 points and rice about 30. A very good capper i heard a few years back said you should always look at a game and decide if it sets up better for a side play or a totals play. This game definitely sets up better for a totals play. And not one person in this thread other than Udog has even mentioned liking any potential totals or even saying "hey i am looking at the over here depending on where the number comes"


and if you aren't capping totals each week you are literally leaving 1/2 the college football card on the table on a weekly basis. Cutting your choices down by 50%.

[Underdog88]

and if you aren't capping totals each week you are literally leaving 1/2 the college football card on the table on a weekly basis. Cutting your choices down by 50%.

:thumbs:


Often totals can be easier than choosing a side, IMO. IU/Minn over was on my radar as well FF.

[Franchise]

I really need to look a lot closer at the card for Saturday but two games jump out to me.

Wisconsin - With the alternating backs Hill and Clay they should be able to pound on OSU. If their QB plays average they should be ok since they have enough weapons at WR and with their TE back this week they can definitely score enough to win. OSU hasn't been that impressive and this will be a very hostile environment. Bielema also does a great job coaching up his team and having them prepared and I expect a solid performance after the sloppy play last week.

Purdue - PSU has started slow in conference and this will be a nice spot for a letdown with the three games they have upcoming and off the Illinois game. Purdue also fell victim to some pretty good play from Clausen last week.

As for totals as Flyers mentioned I haven't seen anything I like but I may find something as I look more into a few games. Personally I typically don't play a ton of totals as I have found that I don't have much success in that area. Plus when you are playing the over on a total near 80, in my opinion you are really asking for a lot.

[FlyersFan]

I may play MIN as well on Saturday. Especially after looking at their schedule. They go on the road for 2 games after this that they probably won't win, so this game is everything to their chances of going to a bowl game. They go @ ILL and Purdue then come home to face NWU and Crapchigan, @Wisconsin and Home to Iowa. This is a game they really need. IU is banged up on defense and atrocious defensively anyway.

More i think about it, i may play Minnesota Team Over and MINN as well.

And dang i want to play WISKY dick but you almost sit here and think...OK they opened the game OSU -2 which is almost begging you to take the points with Wisky. So im thinking the linesmaker thinks OSU is the play, but you can't ignore the struggles OSU has had with Wisconsin going back to the early 80's even. In the end i think Wisconsin does win it, but it bothers me that line opened the way it did.

[BoKnows]

I am thinking right now that AUB -4 is a very strong play for Saturday. VANDY is a fraud and their QB is banged up. They are 4-0 because of 1 thing....turnovers. And not necessarily caused by VANDY....freeking OlePiss player falls down and coughs the ball up going in for the winning score 2 weeks ago. MIA(oh) gave them 2 fumbles.......AUB OWNS this series ATS and SU and i think will push around this Vandy team. I think the oddsmaker is telling you who he likes by setting this line at -4. I mean you're sitting here saying Vandy is for real...they're 4-0....huge home game vs. an AUB team that can't score....AUB off 2 straight tough home games......and then the line comes AUB -4. And i haven't seen any sharps pounding Vandy when the line came out from what i can see.

If anyone has any insight on the line move in that game let me know or any thoughts.

Vandy is 3rd in the SEC in rushing at 200+ per game, 1st in TO margin. Their leading rusher is their QB who is hurt, last time Vandy was in the top 25 was 1984, the last time they beat AU was 1955. Vandy is dead last in the SEC in total O, and dead last in total D....signs point to an ATS cover... That being said, our O is pathetic, no continuity, our D....well they are as good as it gets IMHOP, they are 1st in the nation in 3rd down %. I may lay on Vandy just to insure a win:)LOL.....until AU can get some continuity on O I would not trust them. Maybe this is the week maybe not, what you do know is our D will show up but betting on this ATS cover is risky but if they can get it done it will be against the worst D in the SEC.

[Underdog88]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Iowa/Mich state game? I'm leaning heavily on the over 46, maybe the Iowa team over. Indiana was the first team that was able to establish a solid rushing attack vs the Spartans, & they put up 29 points. Iowa averages 186 rushing yards per game, & it looks as if Shonn Greene will play. I think Michigan state may be favored by too much this game, but will most likely wait until next week to fade them @ NW. Last year these two teams combined for 61 points, & despite Iowa barely getting over 50 passing yards they rushed for 230....

[shetown]

Flyers - Good point on taking a look at the whole picture, I totally agree with that! It looks like the total in the Tulsa/Rice game is opening at 78.5. In my eyes I still see Tulsa as a better play than the total.

As far as playing totals go, why is it always easier to bet or spot an over play than the under? I've heard many a cappers say the same thing.

[hodown]

the iowa/msu score from last year is misleading because the game went to overtime with the score 20-20. i havent seen msu play at all this year so i cant give the greatest opinion, as im not an o/u guy either. both teams are running teams and i know that iowa plays contain defense trying to not give up the big play. after turning it over 5 times against nw, iowa coaches would have to be stressing the importance of ball control this week and theyll prob try to keep ringer off the field and when they are on the field try and contain him from the big play. these things would make me point toward the under, but if you think iowa can hit 21 then this game will go over.

[Underdog88]

these things would make me point toward the under, but if you think iowa can hit 21 then this game will go over.

I tend to think they can score over 21. Though both teams are running teams, both teams have great backs that can keep the ball moving. Mich state's D has not impressed me at all. Though they only allowed 7 points to ND, it could have easily been 20+. Cal ran for 203 & put up 38 pts. Indiana rushed for 189 & put up 29 pts. Starting to warm up to Iowa team over & maybe a ml shot.

[hodown]

iowa isnt as bad as the record suggests. the game against pitt was one where the defense got drove on consecutively in the first quarter, then gave up 7 the rest of the way. and losing the turnover battle 5-1 against nw didnt help them in a game they shouldve won. like i said, i havent seen msu play but i think iowa has a decent shot to keep it within the number. but im not playing them!

[navy_blue99]

Tough game tonight with Pitt-USF. Both teams have been a bit unpredictable this year. USF's played really well at home the last couple years, and dominated Pitt last year on the road. If I were to lean one way, I'd lean USF, but I prolly won't play it.

I will prolly play Utah tonight. They're a very, very good team, and Oregon State is Stanford of last year. Yes, Stanford beat USC last year, but outside of that, they sucked. Plus there will be a letdown factor. I'm on the Utes.

[PhillyFan3]

Noon road games in conference over the last few years for Penn State:

2007:

W Indiana 36-31

2006:

W Minnesota 28-27
W Purdue 12-0

2005:

W Northwestern 34-29(Late TD, PSU trailed much of the game)


All tight games against far inferior opponents.

hey nitt...remember, ****head Morrelli was the QB for a lot of those games, and just look at the difference now that this guy isnt running the offense anymore...I just dont see Purude's D being able to contend with the Nittany Lion Offense