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I'm flippin torn here....at school all day I watched BIG 12 film, and SEC, and just feel Florida is the better team, damnnnn some of the drives okie puts together, and the speed they play at on offense is awesome..but it only takes one bad play when u run that hurry up to take them out of that...EX..Texas and McCoy fumubling and losing those yards when Texas had HUGE momentum in the 3rd quarter......by the way I don't see oklahoma stopping FLA..we'll see...GL lets get it together and $$$ -
STIF
heck of a story problem!! It makes total sense..GL..I'm torn right now...might not play and wait until NFL Playoffs.....been pondering all day!Leave a comment:
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I see 65% on FLA, 35% on Sooners.
But think about this...
A "regular" college game gets maybe 25,000 bets on it at the site I use for tracking. The big TV ones get more, and the small crappy ones like Idaho vs Utah St way less.
But my point is, there are nearly 150,000 bets on this thing already. Even though the public isn't as lopsided on this one as some, THE MONEY IS MORE LOPSIDED (theoretically....since we don't know if sharp money is on either side, or if these people are betting 1 dollar per play or 100 per play, or whatever) because of the huge number of bets.
Think of it this way....
If you had 10 buddies and you were their bookie, and 8 of them bet 10 bucks on Team A -3, and 2 on Team B +3, you would stand to lose 58 bucks if Team A covers the -3. Not a big deal, right? So even though there's 80% on Team A, the book (you) doesn't care, cause you can easily cover the loss if Team A covers.
Now if you have 10000 buddies, and 65% of them (6500) play 10 bucks on Team A -3, and 35% (3500) of them 10 bucks play Team B +3, you stand to lose $26,500 if Team A covers the spread.
So the % isn't as high, but the risk of the book is actually much higher when you get to this volume of bets, so that's probably alot of the reason for the line move.
Plus, it moved up when it was announced that Percy Harvin was "90%" (however the hell he knows he's "90%", lol), and that he would play.Leave a comment:
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whats with the line move...from what 2 when it opened 4 yesterday and now 6...
Public money on wagerline is only 58 42 FL.
is florida just going to hand it to themLeave a comment:
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Record
17-9 + 22 Units
When this game opened I loved Florida. I have a 3 team parly with Oaklahoma+3 for the last team. It pays 1 unit to win 6 units.
I now like Oaklahoma, the line is 5 and thats toooo much in my opinon. So on my system I would have to now take Florida...
Any takes....Leave a comment:
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do what works man...and what you're doing is working!!! keep it up!Leave a comment:
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Its funny I have just determined that I cant pick games... So I thought I would try it this way and so far it works...I could analize it and improve it over.. I dont bet any other sports than football. Next fall im going to start from the beggining see how it goes and analyze it and maybe I can do even better.Leave a comment:
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Nice results so far doing this, but do you plan on continuing this forever? Why don't you try and find the reasons why you seem to always have a lean to the losing side?Leave a comment:
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Didnt post it but played the buckeys last night and im playing tulsa today....
6 Units
Tulsa -3
16-9 +16 Units
Also have a Parlay Alive
OSU +9
Tulsa -3
Okl + 3.5Leave a comment:
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I think 7 is too much, so lean towards Buffalo...
So Ill go the opposite and take UConn
3 units
U Conn-7 -105
Bowl season
14-9 +9 Units
ml
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