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A couple for me today.
Colorado +135 3 Units
I think Texas AM is in a sell high spot here after beating a TT that was handing the ball over and an Iowa St team in a huge letdown spot after their upset at Lincoln. Colorado has shown flashes of quality play this season putting together one nice half per game and getting rolled in the other half. I like Colorado to start a little better in this game with their new qb getting a little more comfortable and against an AM team that isn't as good as their last two outings.
LSU +7' 2 Units
I am expecting a tight game with not too much scoring by the offenses. I think LSU will be stacking the run and forcing McElroy to try and beat them. I think LSU has the bodies to slow the Alabama run game and a team averaging 122 yds passing per game in their last 3 will have trouble covering a number. I also think Jefferson has shown some growth and LSU will present more balance and give them the opportunity to hit some big plays. In a tight game where the the number will likely be decided by a qb's mistake I like LSU and the points.
PSU -4' 2 Units
This is a matchup between two tough defenses, but two very different offenses. PSU has the ability to open up their offense at times and I think they will need to for success against the Buckeyes. OSU doesn't open the offense and their qb couldn't handle it if they did. Plus the Buckeyes have a new kicker so that should hurt their already conservative gameplan.
OK St. -7' 2 Units
I usually avoid road favs but I just see two teams that aren't even close and the line is only down as a reaction to the last few games. At the end of the 1H of Texas their was a play where OSU stole the ball from the WR when the score was 17-7 but the call was ruled to not be reviewable due to forward progress. If this play had went the other way (as I thought it was clear) OSU would have closed to within a score and had a whole different game instead of having Texas drive on them for a 24-7 and then a quick score after the half to kill the will. Now I think their is the possibility of a letdown for OSU but they are a team that typically puts forth good effort. OSU also offers a strong run defense that should be able to limit Iowa st.
Wake/GT Under 60 3 Units
I am really surprised that this line is this high. GT has had 3 games that went way over the total and after their up and down affair last week I think Paul Johnson may utilize a little more of their ball control option plays. That would be a way to help his defense. Wake may also fair better against this after being the rare team that got to face it a couple of weeks ago. Wake also potentially has their own offensive problems with Skinner's health being in quetion. Either way I think they are conservative either with McManus or to protect Skinner.
Stanford +7 3 Units
Stanford has been much better at home, is off a bye and Oregon can't be getting much more hype right now. Perfect spot for a market correction as everyone and their brother saw Oregon rolll up a USC that is ill-suited to defend that offense with the limited LB play.
Houston pk 2 Units
I am very confused about this line and expected it to be atleast 3 or 4 points higher. I didn't see any reason that the line was moving until Stif pointed out Kinne. But either way Houston has shown more consistency and talent throughout their roster. And with Keenum having a definite advantage I don't see Tulsa getting it done. While most agree that Houston has the offensive advantage it isn't as extreme as you would think when you look at the quality of defense's they played overall. But the advantage comes on defense because while Houston doesn't have numbers to match Tulsa they have played a significant difference in quality of offense as well as the pace factor at which they play that leads to more possessions. I like the cougars to get the W.
Cinci -17 3 Units
Cinci is a team that has the talent to score in a variety of ways and is very dangerous out of the spread offense. Brian Kelly also has a little Bill Belichek in him (he likes to run it up). UConn has a young secondary due to injury and is now on their backup qb's. UConn has talent but this is an awful matchup and a game that will likely get out of control early. I hope I'm not too late on the Cinci bandwagon.
Nebraska +175 2 units
An up and down Nebraska team with the ability to cause problems for the OU offense. Nebraska has struggled on offense but I think Green has the ability to make plays and this might be a spot to catch OU. I also think it's a possibility that Nebraska gets beat by 30 but I think the line is worth a shot.
Arizona St +10 3 Units
If the books want to keep giving away money on USC I will be happy to take it to the bank. These two teams are very comparable and the line shouldn't be greater than 4. USC just keeps getting respect for the name. The injuries are also starting to mount for USC and while they have plenty of talent on the bench these players haven't shown an ability to stop the bleeding this year. ASU has also shown much better form at home and will be up for the chance to knock off the conference power.
GLTA
Colorado +135 3 Units
I think Texas AM is in a sell high spot here after beating a TT that was handing the ball over and an Iowa St team in a huge letdown spot after their upset at Lincoln. Colorado has shown flashes of quality play this season putting together one nice half per game and getting rolled in the other half. I like Colorado to start a little better in this game with their new qb getting a little more comfortable and against an AM team that isn't as good as their last two outings.
LSU +7' 2 Units
I am expecting a tight game with not too much scoring by the offenses. I think LSU will be stacking the run and forcing McElroy to try and beat them. I think LSU has the bodies to slow the Alabama run game and a team averaging 122 yds passing per game in their last 3 will have trouble covering a number. I also think Jefferson has shown some growth and LSU will present more balance and give them the opportunity to hit some big plays. In a tight game where the the number will likely be decided by a qb's mistake I like LSU and the points.
PSU -4' 2 Units
This is a matchup between two tough defenses, but two very different offenses. PSU has the ability to open up their offense at times and I think they will need to for success against the Buckeyes. OSU doesn't open the offense and their qb couldn't handle it if they did. Plus the Buckeyes have a new kicker so that should hurt their already conservative gameplan.
OK St. -7' 2 Units
I usually avoid road favs but I just see two teams that aren't even close and the line is only down as a reaction to the last few games. At the end of the 1H of Texas their was a play where OSU stole the ball from the WR when the score was 17-7 but the call was ruled to not be reviewable due to forward progress. If this play had went the other way (as I thought it was clear) OSU would have closed to within a score and had a whole different game instead of having Texas drive on them for a 24-7 and then a quick score after the half to kill the will. Now I think their is the possibility of a letdown for OSU but they are a team that typically puts forth good effort. OSU also offers a strong run defense that should be able to limit Iowa st.
Wake/GT Under 60 3 Units
I am really surprised that this line is this high. GT has had 3 games that went way over the total and after their up and down affair last week I think Paul Johnson may utilize a little more of their ball control option plays. That would be a way to help his defense. Wake may also fair better against this after being the rare team that got to face it a couple of weeks ago. Wake also potentially has their own offensive problems with Skinner's health being in quetion. Either way I think they are conservative either with McManus or to protect Skinner.
Stanford +7 3 Units
Stanford has been much better at home, is off a bye and Oregon can't be getting much more hype right now. Perfect spot for a market correction as everyone and their brother saw Oregon rolll up a USC that is ill-suited to defend that offense with the limited LB play.
Houston pk 2 Units
I am very confused about this line and expected it to be atleast 3 or 4 points higher. I didn't see any reason that the line was moving until Stif pointed out Kinne. But either way Houston has shown more consistency and talent throughout their roster. And with Keenum having a definite advantage I don't see Tulsa getting it done. While most agree that Houston has the offensive advantage it isn't as extreme as you would think when you look at the quality of defense's they played overall. But the advantage comes on defense because while Houston doesn't have numbers to match Tulsa they have played a significant difference in quality of offense as well as the pace factor at which they play that leads to more possessions. I like the cougars to get the W.
Cinci -17 3 Units
Cinci is a team that has the talent to score in a variety of ways and is very dangerous out of the spread offense. Brian Kelly also has a little Bill Belichek in him (he likes to run it up). UConn has a young secondary due to injury and is now on their backup qb's. UConn has talent but this is an awful matchup and a game that will likely get out of control early. I hope I'm not too late on the Cinci bandwagon.
Nebraska +175 2 units
An up and down Nebraska team with the ability to cause problems for the OU offense. Nebraska has struggled on offense but I think Green has the ability to make plays and this might be a spot to catch OU. I also think it's a possibility that Nebraska gets beat by 30 but I think the line is worth a shot.
Arizona St +10 3 Units
If the books want to keep giving away money on USC I will be happy to take it to the bank. These two teams are very comparable and the line shouldn't be greater than 4. USC just keeps getting respect for the name. The injuries are also starting to mount for USC and while they have plenty of talent on the bench these players haven't shown an ability to stop the bleeding this year. ASU has also shown much better form at home and will be up for the chance to knock off the conference power.
GLTA
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