Week 6 discussion thread

[MParris86]

Games that jumped out to me on the early lines:

Oregon -35.5 @ Wash St: I see the Ducks winning like 55-10

Minnesota +21.5 @ Wisconsin: Minny has played every game close & Wisconsin hasn't covered jack**** this season

NC State -11 vs. BC: Eagles can't score and NC State needs a rebound game after blowing lead vs. VT

Clemson +2 @ UNC: Tigers lost two close ones vs. ranked opponents (Miami, Auburn) & I think UNC is not very good

Utah -8 @ Iowa St: I don't think Iowa State is good enough yet to play with top 10 teams within single digits. Utes are a pretty dangerous & diverse team.

Alabama -9 @ South Carolina: Guess the books think think 'Bama is going to have a letdown after Florida win?


Curious to hear some thoughts.

[DaBullz]

Agree on the NC State and Clemson plays... Really feel like the wrong team is favored even with Clemson on the road. A lot of games made my first glance list and here are a couple I really like initially:

Troy +3 @ MTSU - Unless there's some Dasher news I don't know about I think Troy has MTSU in most aspects of this game. A much more productive and efficient QB. Troy's D has allowed quite a bit of passing yards but against some solid passing offenses(including one of the best O's in the country). Might hit up the ML on this one... But I'm 0-4 on my posted ML plays this week so take it with a grain of salt...

Army -1.5 @ Tulane - Looks too good to be true but Tulane is coming off a big win and Army off a tough loss... Plus I think Army is simple the better team and Tulane hasn't defended the run well against the decent rushing teams they have played the last 2 games.

Michigan State +5(or ML) @ Michigan - Tough place to play and its hard to bet against a team with an X-factor like Robinson but I think there could be solid value in the ML.

WVU -26.5 vs UNLV - Chance for Devine to really have a breakout game... Geno Smith doesn't make a lot of mistakes. The only thing I can see that would stop this from turning into a woodshed beating is Bill Stewart's coaching...

SDSU -5.5 @ BYU - SDSU is a spread covering machine and i think BYU is somehow still overrated. The situation looks bad with BYU coming back home after an embarrassing loss so there's always the chance for a bounce back but I think SDSU is at least a TD better than this BYU team.

[rocjones]

UTAH AND NC STATE AUTOMATICALLY JUMPS OUT@ME...2 REAL GOOD SOLID PICKS..I REALLY LIKE...BAMA SHOULD COVER SPREAD AGAINST SC..SPURRIER DOESNT KNOW WHAT QB HE WANTS PLAYIN..AN GARCIA IS A TURNOVER MACHINE

Games that jumped out to me on the early lines:

Oregon -35.5 @ Wash St: I see the Ducks winning like 55-10

Minnesota +21.5 @ Wisconsin: Minny has played every game close & Wisconsin hasn't covered jack**** this season

NC State -11 vs. BC: Eagles can't score and NC State needs a rebound game after blowing lead vs. VT

Clemson +2 @ UNC: Tigers lost two close ones vs. ranked opponents (Miami, Auburn) & I think UNC is not very good

Utah -8 @ Iowa St: I don't think Iowa State is good enough yet to play with top 10 teams within single digits. Utes are a pretty dangerous & diverse team.

Alabama -9 @ South Carolina: Guess the books think think 'Bama is going to have a letdown after Florida win?


Curious to hear some thoughts.

[rocjones]

LOCK IT

OK STATE -23 @UL-LAFAYETTE......THIS WILL BE A BLOWOUT...IM UNLOADING THE BOAT ON THIS 1...THE CAJUNS ARE 1 DIMENSIONAL..THEY WILL TRY AND RUN..ONCE ITS SHUTDOWN THEY'LL FORCE THE BALL TO LADARIUS GREEN...OK STATE LUVS 2 PASS AND UL LAFAYETTE HAS 5'9 CORNERS ON AN ISLAND...LANDSLIDE VICTORY OK STATE PUTS UP@LEAST 55:thumbs:.....

[DaBullz]

A quick note on one of the games i mentioned up there... Devine might not play for WVU but if they put Tevon Austin in at RB where he may eventually play when Devine graduates anyway they should still have no problem putting up 6 or 7+ ypc and winning by 4 or more TDs

[Woody12]

HUGE early linemove in that ISu-Utah game. I see a 5.5 now, opened at 7.5

But high % of the bets are on Utah so sharp plays most likely.

I don't know what they are seeing as I like Utah too. I watched the whole ISU game and TT's D is horrible. As much as I'd like to see ISU win, I do not think they can even come close to hanging with Utah.

Utah has Wyoming on deck so not really a look-ahead either.

Utah by at least 7. I may jump on the -5.5 now?

[Nicky Santoro]

Games that jumped out to me on the early lines:

Oregon -35.5 @ Wash St: I see the Ducks winning like 55-10

Clemson +2 @ UNC: Tigers lost two close ones vs. ranked opponents (Miami, Auburn) & I think UNC is not very good

Alabama -9 @ South Carolina: Guess the books think think 'Bama is going to have a letdown after Florida win?


Curious to hear some thoughts.

I find it interesting as well, The Cougars have covered their last 2 of 3 games and I'm waiting for the public to also jump on Wash St., The Cougars looked ok against SMU playing away not to bad and pretty physical against the Stangs. USC was a different story as they were hammered 50-16. Going up against the Bruins the Cougar defense gave up huge numbers to Franklin (a career-high 216 yards on 30 carries) and Coleman (a career-high 185 on 15) which powered UCLA to 437 rushing yards. I feel this line will go nothing but up. 35 seems like good value to me. Last years spread for this game was also 35.

I don't like that line in Clem/NC. That tells me odds makers think it's time for the Tar Heel's second win at home. How big the margin?? I think it's right there IMO. The last 3 games by both teams has yardage, pass, and rush both defensivly and offensively identical. So I'd cap it around 2-3 giving to the visitor. Interested in whiuch way you guys would lean to on this. Should be a great match-up.

Carolina has had two weeks to prepare for a huge game @home. That +9 is very enticing indeed. I think the game the Tide had against Arkansas was a tougher than expected match-up and was a small let down. They'll be ready. I just can't bank on Garcia, the guy is like Sybil. Who's a gonna show up?? I'll put a small play on Bama, which is now -7. To much talent for the Tide even going into SC in front of a crazy ass crowd.

[MParris86]

HUGE early linemove in that ISu-Utah game. I see a 5.5 now, opened at 7.5

But high % of the bets are on Utah so sharp plays most likely.

I don't know what they are seeing as I like Utah too. I watched the whole ISU game and TT's D is horrible. As much as I'd like to see ISU win, I do not think they can even come close to hanging with Utah.

Utah has Wyoming on deck so not really a look-ahead either.

Utah by at least 7. I may jump on the -5.5 now?

Damn...my book is still showing -7. If it drops below, I'm all over it.


Also Nevada line growing...Are they good enough to beat SJSU by 40? I like the Pack alot, but that's a really big #.

[rocjones]

THATS A REALLY BIG #...WOW...40..THE PACK RUNS WILD..BUT 40...I'MA HAVE 2 READ UP ON SJSU..

Damn...my book is still showing -7. If it drops below, I'm all over it.


Also Nevada line growing...Are they good enough to beat SJSU by 40? I like the Pack alot, but that's a really big #.

[FlyersFan]

Damn...my book is still showing -7. If it drops below, I'm all over it.


Also Nevada line growing...Are they good enough to beat SJSU by 40? I like the Pack alot, but that's a really big #.

going to the game.....:hide:....they sell beers there.....:beerbang:


My 2 cents and i really haven't looked at much and probably won't until Friday in Reno but......

IU +24........Probably my favorite play this week mostly froma situational standpoint....Tyrell Pryor is banged up and they have Wisconsin on deck @ Madison next weekend. (a) look ahead game, (b) they will be as vanilla as possible and ask pryor to do as little as he has to do for them to win this game in order to have him as close to good as possible for that game. Anyone who saw the last quarter of the Illinois game when they ran 14 straight off tackle plays....there may be a heavy dose of that in this game, especially if they are winning later in the game. IU can put up points and the weakness of the Buckeyes is their secondary. Nobody runs on OSU but IU doesn't run anyway and is ranked dead last in the big10. I really am trying to figure out how OSU is going to beat IU by margin with a limited Pryor knowing they will do everything they can to save him as much as possible (and obviously get the win). Gimme the points please.


MSU/MICH Over whatever the number is.......5 of L6 in this series have gone over and Michigan couldn't stop SpoonieLuv from racking of 400 yards of O through the air. I see a back and forth game and MSU has proven they can score the ball as well. Michigan in a wild one IMO.

UGA -10.5................seriously.....TENN is going to be ready to play Saturday after the way that LSU game ended???? UGA is not a great football team but they are better, IMO, than they have been playing. LSU stinks...absolutely stinks and has no offense whatsoever so I am not reading much into that game. If it wasn't for Jamarcus Russel II at LSU, Simms would be hands down the worst QB in the SEC. UGA wins this game big IMO. And also that line is telling you that IMO opening a 1-4 UGA team by DD who is 0-3 in the SEC .

UNR team Over.......they will put up 50+ on SJSU and not blink. Probably my 2nd favorite play of the day and the game is on ESPNU so little added incentive to show the nation they can put it on somebody.

SCAR +4 1H.........made the same play in the Arkansas game. I think eventually Bama wins but i will take a shot with SCAR to hang with them for a half. Bama off of 2 huge games the last 2 weeks and it is near impossible to do that week after week without having a letdown. Especially off that hyped up Florida game.

ARK/TXAM Over......should be about 11 interceptions returned for TD's in this one and that's just for starters.

OREST +10.............the clock has just struck October in Corvallis which means it's time for OREST to start playing good football (talk about a yearly trend). This has historically been a close series the past couple of years and I would expect the same here. OREST off a nice win over ASU at home and UAZ off a much needed bye week. OREST has weapons and in the end probably a 31-24 game. Think there is value in the Beavers at DD.

UPSET ALERT.......Kentucky over Auburn.....Kentucky back home off of 2 road losses and Auburn hits the road after 2 emotional home wins....once again from the files of it's tough to keep getting up for big games week after week. I can see Auburn taking KY lightly.

[FlyersFan]

Also lean Taco Tech over Baylor

[GMoney]

going to the game.....:hide:....they sell beers there.....:beerbang:

OREST +10.............the clock has just struck October in Corvallis which means it's time for OREST to start playing good football (talk about a yearly trend). This has historically been a close series the past couple of years and I would expect the same here. OREST off a nice win over ASU at home and UAZ off a much needed bye week. OREST has weapons and in the end probably a 31-24 game. Think there is value in the Beavers at DD.

I agree 100%. The bye week throws me off a little bit, but Oregon State is a good football team with plenty of offensive weapons. This one should stay within a TD.

Might I call Stanford -9.5 to your attention? Besides being the clearly superior team, Stanford is in a great bounceback spot here after losing at Oregon. They are at home and need a convincing win, and Harbaugh wouldn't know sportsmanship if it hit him in the taint. I expect him to have his troops fired up and have the pedal to the medal all game long. Last year USC threw a bomb for a TD in garbage time since Harbaugh was calling Time Outs to extend the game...and I think he takes full advantage with the opportunity to flat embarass them this week. I wouldn't be surprised if Stanford wins by 30. Also, USC traditionally unravels after getting their first loss. Those semi-pros expect to be in the national title hunt and with the motivation of going undefeated and sticking it to the NCAA this year out the window, I expect them to pack the season in. Plus they're just not that good...

[Underdog88]

MSU/MICH Over whatever the number is.......5 of L6 in this series have gone over and Michigan couldn't stop SpoonieLuv from racking of 400 yards of O through the air. I see a back and forth game and MSU has proven they can score the ball as well. Michigan in a wild one IMO.

haha I knew you would like this one as well. Had Michigan team total over circled here as a look, but maybe simplifying things and playing game over is the best option.

[MParris86]

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer's beat reporter for Ohio State:

As Pryor stepped away from his postgame interview Saturday, I asked him if he could run after the injury, and he said, "No." Taking his run threat away completely changes how defenses have to defend the Buckeyes. That's the concern. If Pryor getting outside isn't a worry, then defenses can better defend the pass and the running game with the tailbacks.

Just an interesting tidbit relating to OSU-Indiana. FlyersFan makes some very valid points as well above on the game.

[Underdog88]

I think Utah lays a beatdown on Iowa state.