College Football Week one, 2025 "Let's Go Crazy"

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  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 440

    College Football Week one, 2025 "Let's Go Crazy"

    Looking over my notes from last year I spotted a play.
    Over the first 5 weeks it was good for a 67% Fade.
    It's based on a percentage play for Favorites that will cover, no dogs.

    Call me crazy but I'm playing every one of them in week one.

    l usually use two bet sizes, investment plays (big $) and TV plays (small $, games I bet solely because I'll be watching and I want action on it.) This year I'm adding a third, System Spots (mid level $ bet.)

    Yes, I advocate not varying your unit sizes (because I see nonsense like 1*, 5*, 10*, 20*!) but the fact of the matter is most sports bettors have plays that they like and then they have plays they bet just because they're on TV and they want to have a rooting interest.
    So you should have at least those two different betting sizes, one for games you like and have strong numbers in your favor, and one with smaller units for TV/action plays.

    As if I don't already have too many numbers/models/different sports to track, I'm adding this third unit size category because I'm not going to make investment size bets on this many games, and I want a little bit more than just TV action small $ because I do have some numbers/stats behind the spots.

    Aside from the bets listed below I also have a couple other plays (one side and four totals) you can find in my write-up/analysis in the homepage columns, some already posted, some will be up soon.


    Week one, SS plays:

    Thursday, 8/28
    Wyoming -7
    Rutgers -14'
    Wisconsin -17'

    Saturday, 8/30
    Purdue -17
    Indiana -22'
    Virginia -12
    Arizona -13'
    Washington -19'
    Kentucky -7
    Georgia -39'
    Texas A& M -22
    Michigan -36'
    Oregon State -3

    NOT something I would do if I was in the red, or if it was late in the season, but even if I lose a few units I've got all season long to get it back. I've been in a "You only live once" mood all week and have been resisting going crazy with my bets thus far, but I'm going for it to start off this college football year (a possible side effect of months and months of just NBA, WNBA and UFL betting.)

    I'm either going to dig a hole right out of the starting gate or bank a few units as a foundation to start the season.
    Either way, it will be FUN.
    I'll have a LOT of action that will result in either the challenge of a hole to have to dig out of or an increase in my bankroll, and the satisfaction of possibly uncovering another handicapping model to use going forward.

    Good luck to all of you this college football season!
    Last edited by RBD; 08-20-2025, 10:44 AM.
  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 440

    #2
    Update:

    Home page article going up on the Ov on Jax St/UCF.
    Posted with a wait to buy recommendation because the opening number of 56 was down to 52'.
    There are only one or two houses left at 52', WAN is 53, that's the number that's readily available for most people so that's the number I'll use for the pick.

    I checked my logbook. Last year, college football week one, I made two buys, one regular play, one an investment spot.
    This season week one I have 17, the 13 listed above, the Mississippi game from an article i I submitted earlier this summer, the Jax St/UCF game I mentioned above, and two Unders from my strongest play The NP Un spot (article coming soon.)
    And I have one more NP Un spot that I'm going to buy, I'm just waiting while the line moves in my favor.

    SEVENTEEN??!!
    And at least one more to come?
    It's going to be an interesting 10 days...
    Last edited by RBD; 08-21-2025, 09:41 AM.

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    • RBD
      Predictem Feature Writer
      • Aug 2024
      • 440

      #3
      Update: I just ran the numbers again for the opening games.
      No plays come off the board, but I have three add-ons for the NP spot (watch this week for an article explaining the NP spot including past records and this year's plays.)

      App St/Char Ov
      G Tech/S Houston Ov
      UNLV/Sam Houston Un

      Because of the success of the past 5 years using NP Unders I am buying every one of them this season. The line on the UNLV/SH game is climbing higher from the opener so I'll wait to buy it.

      Comment

      • RBD
        Predictem Feature Writer
        • Aug 2024
        • 440

        #4
        First update: the Jax St/UCF game no longer qualifies as an NP spot. It still counts on my record because I still have a ticket on the game, but it won't be charted in my database for NP plays.

        This will happen throughout the season, because of line movements. I'll do Game Day updates all season long.

        Comment

        • RBD
          Predictem Feature Writer
          • Aug 2024
          • 440

          #5
          Recap: 1-2
          Record: 1-2
          Review: 0-1- in article picks (Jax St/UCF Over), 1-2 in forum picks.

          Today's article detailed a play on Un in UNLV/Sam Hou tonight, with a "Wait to Buy" notice on it.
          The buy back I mentioned in the article has begun.
          Still plenty of places to buy it at 61' but 61 is starting to show up so I grabbed it with the hook while I can.

          Comment

          • RBD
            Predictem Feature Writer
            • Aug 2024
            • 440

            #6
            Saturday morning update:
            Due to line movements, two games come off the board for NP spots; one play added.
            Off: Nev/Penn ST Un, Utah/UCLA Un
            Added: Rice/LA Ov

            Okay, this is not good. I lost two plays on the stronger spot, the Under, and gained one play in the weaker spot, the Over.

            I already bought the two games that came off so they'll stay as part of my record and my bankroll but not part of the NP Under record.

            I was waiting to buy the Florida Atlantic / Maryland game, the line did go up a little bit more I bought it this morning at Under 61.

            Note: Mississippi line has gone down so it doesn't qualify for the system that uses 38 or more points. As always, it counts on my record and in my bankroll because I already bought it (with a bad line at -36' because they're down to 34' right now.)

            Today's plays (from my articles, not including forum picks given above)
            Nev/Penn St Un 57'
            Utah/UCLA Un 51
            Fla Atl/Maryland Un 61
            Miss - 36'
            Last edited by RBD; 08-30-2025, 09:34 AM.

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