College Football Friday night

[RBD]

Recap: No plays last week
Record: 5-8

The entire 13 games in my 5-8 record are from one handicapping model, as detailed in my first post of the college football season.
It was Fading a play that worked very well last season (67%) but is the opposite this season, playing ON it is hitting at 68%.
So instead of Fading it I'm riding it.

I don't usually play the mid week games, it's just an extra factor to have to handicap, but tonight's game with Tulsa and Oklahoma qualifies for a 13-6 spot (see today's homepage article about Washington at Washington State.)

Five games qualify for this spot this week including this one and the Apple Cup.

Tulsa opened at +13, now sitting at +10/10'.
Missed out on the best number by a full field goal.
A line change of three points or more against me is where I usually make the cut off for not buying a game but I want some action on Friday night and I want to see if this play continues to pay off.

There are a few +10' left out there but the common number is 10 so that's what I'll use here.

Tulsa +10

[RBD]

Tulsa wins SU as a DD Dog so I'll keep riding this play.

As noted above, five games qualify this week.
In addition to Tulsa and Washington State the other teams that qualify are Maryland, Syracuse, and Stanford.

The first two are morning games, Stanford's later in the afternoon.

Right now I'm buying the two early spots, Maryland and Syracuse.
I'm waiting on the Stanford game for two reasons.
First, the line is still climbing in my favor so no sense buying today.
Second, out of the three games it's the spot that I like the least.
I'll make a decision on it tomorrow.

Syracuse+17'
Maryland +10

[RBD]

Saturday morning update/add ons:
I have two add-ons for the NP spot.

NC/UCF qualifies as an over due to line movement this morning.
Overs in this spot are 1-3.
When it's late add-on it's 0-3.

Also, the game qualifies for an over in one of the three different models I used to pick totals, T2.
T2 has a record of 6-8 on Ov/Un and 1-3 on Overs.
I'm going to Fade the NP and T2 spots and take the Under.

The other spot is a bit tricky for me because it involves an FCS team. Yesterday afternoon I noticed that Columbia/Lafayette qualified as an add-on for the Under. But I can't remember if I include FCS teams in this or just FBS only.
And of course because I'm on vacation I don't have access to my charts (yeah, yeah, I know - next time bring your log books with you!)

It was too late to post but I got in on it for a little $ and it stayed Under. Today, Duquesne/Akron qualifies as an Under.
This presents two dilemmas for me.
1 - I'm not sure if FCS games qualify.
2 - I have a bad history with the Zips. I'll explain someday, no time now.

I'm adding these two spots to my bets for today.
Fading the Over in one spot, taking the Under in the other.
NC/UCF Un
Duq/Ak Un

When to Buy Recommendation:

Duquesne/Akron is at 52/51'.
Almost all of the houses at 51' have extra juice on the Over so I'm going to wait until 52 is the common number (or higher) before buying this.
I bought the NC/UCF game now at 47.

Syracuse+17'
Maryland +10
NC/UCF Un 47
Duq/Ak Un (wait to buy)

[RBD]

The Zip game going off in 20 minutes, no buy.

With three Double Digit Dogs already in as SU winners (Tulsa, Syracuse, Maryland) and one game left open (UCF Un) worst I can do is 3-1 for my forum plays this week.

Since I started the day at three games under .500 I'll say 3-1 is a successful week and end it there, especially since I'm not sure about using an FCS team in the NP Under spot.