The Kids, Week Six

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record 10-10

Review: I lost with the total on Col St/SD St, but banked a unit Fading Colorado State in the Asterisk Spot.

The * Spot is now 2-4 in college, a 67% Fade, similar to last year's numbers. And I have three of them this week, one on tonight's game and two on Saturday that will be in my article, up Thursday or Friday.

WF2 says Mid Tenn St should be the Favorite tonight.
WF1 says Mizzou St is the correct Fav and the differential between the spreads for both my models makes it qualify for the Asterisk Spot.

Going into this week's play WF2 has a record of 5-4 when it's a Hm team, one game above .500.
Last year the same play came in at 47%, so it's over performing this season and I expect it to start heading back into the sub .500 zone, hopefully starting tonight.

Mizzou St opened at -1' and is currently available between -1' and -2', with a couple of our sponsors at -2.
That's the number I grabbed.

My buy:
Mizzou St -2

[RBD]

Yes Missouri State is new to FBS, but the Blue Raiders lost to FCS Austin Peay this season.
Austin Peay, an FCS team.
By 20 points!

[RBD]

Win, lose, or draw (it was a draw) Mizzou St/MTN was one of the more frustrating games I'll watch this year.

Uncertainty about the quarterback situation made me buy it at -2 because if Clark played the line would go to -3. They were leaning towards "probable" so I grabbed the -2.
When they announced he was out the line dropped to -1'.
Mizzou St won by 2 and I got a push in a game I think I had 'capped correctly.

They had a missed extra point and a missed field goal.

They had a freshman quarterback substituting for Clark and he kept taking sacks instead of throwing the ball away.

Late second half they got a turnover, took over at midfield and went three and out.

Up by two in MTN's final drive of the game they had not one but two face masks penalties that put MTN in position win the game and tag me with a loss.
Fortunately they missed the FG and I got lucky with a push.

NEXT!

First note of today - if the common number in Rutgers becomes 61 it will qualify as an NP Under.
Also, Air Force/UNLV qualifies as an Under. If line moves don't change that by tomorrow I'll add it to my dance card.
An off-season for the NP Under play so far at 2-3.

LA/J Mad qualifies as an NP Over.
That was the play I got burned fading last week when it was 1-4, it's 3-5 now.

Back later if I buy anything.

[RBD]

Update #1:
I'll add to this piece by piece.
First up, J Mad game qualifies as an NP Over.

Update #2: Oh, Fuuuuuuk me!
Busy moving into a new place yesterday, getting utilities turned on, furniture shopping, loading and unloading stuff etc etc,. I looked at Friday's games but only saw two, totally missed Rutgers and the line not only made it to 61 as noted above but it closed at 62.
Qualified as an Under,
came in Under,
AND I MISSED IT!
Like I said, fuuuuuuk me.

Update #3:
And F me twice now because the Air Force game qualifies as an NP Under which means I'm in that spot that I hate - jumping on a play that I missed the night before and it won.

Record for this play this year is 3-3 after the Rutgers game I blew it on last night.
I'm going to check my database and see if either Rutgers or UNLV qualified for this spot this year, and if it was a win or loss before I make a decision to buy it.

Update #4: I had a "Wait to Buy" notice on Kent State in my article. Opened at -2, was down to -1' and that number is still available but some houses have extra juice on it. The WAN is -2 so that's what I'll use.

Update #5: Busy morning, just got a chance to check the stats. Air Force hasn't been in the NP Un spot this season but UNLV was and the play was a winner.
With only 10 minutes left to kickoff there's not enough time for anyone to see a pick and make a play if they want, so it'll count towards the record of the play but not towards mine.


Finally getting a minute to check scores now and I see Alabama just scored a TD to go up by 10 with a little over 2 minutes left.
BUT... now but they're going to the prevent defensive and, as always, they just gave up a TD with about 1:50 left on the clock.
If I didn't have money on 'Bama -3 I'd root for Missouri to get the onside kick and beat the Tide for screwing me on the spread.
Onside kick, and . . . 'Bama falls on it.
But Mizzou has three timeouts

They go three and out and there's still 1:25 left on the clock. This team just does not know how to close out a game.

Go for the field goal and go up by two scores you butt heads!!!

No. They do the old "try and draw the other team off sides" which of course Missouri didn't fall for, five yard penalty and a punt.
A-holes.
I'm actually starting to root for Missouri now.
Interception, 'Bama wins, but I get a push.

Kent State up 14-zip early so hopefully that one will come through.