The Kids, Week Seven

[RBD]

Recap: 0-0-1
Record: 10-10

Review: Got a push with Missouri State.

Football on a Tuesday night?
What's not to love!

Even better, I have two spots active from my various 'capping models to help me have a little action/fun tonight.

And even better still, one of them is from the model I used with Hawaii Saturday night and the Chiefs Sunday night.

WF1 (college football) says Florida international should be the Fav.
WF1 record this season is 12-18, a decent Fade, but when it's a Rd team like the Panthers are tonight the record is 5-13, an excellent Fade.

Only concern is that it's a Tuesday night game and none of the 18 games in the 5-13 record were played midweek.
Also, not crazy about the fact that I didn't 'cap earlier and missed out on a better line.

I'll add more info in a little bit, right now I want to get this posted because the board is split between 10/10' and I got to go grab a -10 before they're gone.

Update #1: The other game that qualifies tonight is New Mex/ Liberty Over. My T1 model has a record of 7-4 on Overs, but again none of those were weekday games.
Don't think I'll add this to my card but I'm going to take a closer look at it, if I buy it I'll post it here.

Update #2: I checked through my database to see if any WF1 plays were weekday Rd teams. I found one.
Friday night, week five, New Mexico was a WF1 Rd Fav over San Jose St. They lost, and it was a win for the Fade.

Not too relevant though as Tuesday night has a different kind of "feel" than a Friday night game, but still a little data in support of tonight's pick.

My buy:
Md Tenn St -10

[RBD]

I had two spots to choose from yesterday, Fade Florida Int and take W Kent -10 or take the N Mex/Liberty game Over 48.

I picked the wrong one.

WK lost SU as a Double Digit Fav.
The Hilltoppers average 30 PPG and they only managed to score 6 at home last night!
(Some teams just do not adjust to weeknight games and come up flat.)

The Liberty game went over by 9 points.
That spot (T1 OV) is now 8-4 on the season.

This puts me in a bad spot because I have one game that qualifies tonight, UTEP/Sam H Over.
And it's the same spot I didn't use last night with N Mex/Liberty.
Which means I'm in the situation I hate - jumping on a play that I didn't use the night before, and it won.

It's the reason I didn't bet the UNLV game Under last week and saved a unit when the game saw about 100 points scored.
And it's the reason I should lay off tonight.
But I'm not going to.
I'm in the mood to test my theory about not taking a play that I missed out on the night before.

UTEP/Houston Ov 47

[RBD]

Update #1: Got back Wednesday night's L with a W on Thursday using the Houston game Over.

In my college column this week I have two "Wait to buy" notices out.
There was a buyback on the Akron game, dropped from 43 to 41 when I said, "Wait to buy" but it's back at 43 now so that's the number I'll use here.
Army game also went up, I got that at 45.

I'll do an update on one of my most profitable spots over the years, NP Plays and post it up here ASAP.

Update #2: The NP Spot.
Ov 3-7
Un 3-4
A good Fade for Overs, Unders are underperforming at 3-4 based on past results.

Here are the games that qualified this week:
Louis/Mia Ov
Cin/BC Un
Tex St/Marsh Un
Wyoming/AF Un
Tex Tech/Az Ov
Fla St/S Fla Un
Nev/N Mex Ov

Saturday morning final numbers:
Cin/BC comes off the board, no longer qualifies due to line moves.
One game added, Ore/Rutgers Un.


The Louis/Mia game was last night and despite a 3-6 67% Fade available I didn't play it.
Why not?
Because in week five I Faded a couple of them and lost money. It's 3-8 now.

I said at the beginning of the year the NP Under would make or break my season cuz I was going to play all of them.
I backed off of that last week and it went 1-1 so I saved some juice.

Looking at today's card I have a 12:30 (pst, I'm in Vegas again) kickoff with the Tex St/Marsh game and the Wyoming/AF games, Unders.

Midday I have a 1:00 Tex Tech/Az Over to Fade if I want to.
(Leery because I laid off last night and lost out on a unit, which puts me in that spot I hate - jumping on a play that won the night before when I didn't play it. But I got away with it with on Thursday night so maybe I'll do it again today?)

By the 3:30 kickoff of Oregon and Rutgers I'll know how the first three games went, to help me make a decision on whether or not I want to play this one.

At 4:30 I've got an Under to possibly play with the Owls and Bulls, and to close out the day there's the 6:30 Nev/N Mex Ov to Fade if I'm looking for some late day action.

I'll start with the three early ones.
Based on history, you play ON the Unders and Fade the Overs, so that's what I'll do and hope past form holds.

My plays:

Wyoming/AF Un 57'
Tex Tech/Az Un 51

Correction - I had Tex St/Marsh as a game I was going to buy for the NP Under the spot.
BUT...
It also qualifies for a pick that I used in my home page article, T1 says the game goes Over and the current record on that spot 9-4. T1 has been more reliable than the NP under spot, AND H2H (Head to Head) T2 is 2-0 against NP spots when they have conflicting plays.

[RBD]

LOVELY start to my day...

Duke -2'

Duke's defense looks great, forces a punt on Georgia Tech's first possession.
Blue Devils offense gets it all the way to the GT 1 yard line, second and goal, fumble, 99 yd scoop and score TD for the Yellow Jackets.

Army/Tulane over 45
Army gets the opening kickoff.
They go on an EIGHTEEN play drive, use up over 12 minutes of the clock, and miss a field goal.
ONE drive, uses almost all of the first quarter clock, and results in zero points!

Any Catholics out there?
Does prayer really work?
I may need some help today.


AND...
Tulane stalls on the Army 7 yard line, no points.
AND... Duke stalls on the GT 12 yard line,.
4th down, chip shop FG coming up.
BUT . . . the field goal is BLOCKED.
Two trips to the red zone for Duke, zero points.

Update: First and goal from the 1 yard line and Duke runs the same exact play three straight times, a simple run up the middle and they get stuffed.
Then a penalty pushes them back they have to settle for a field goal. And that bad coaching/vanilla play calling is going to cost them the game. And cost me the win and a chance to break even on the morning plays.

He had FOUR plays to move ONE yard forward for a touchdown.
ALL THREE plays he has QB in the shotgun to hand the ball off to the running back coming up from behind him.
Meaning they needed SIX yards to reach the end zone instead of just ONE yard.
Pathetic play calling from Manny Diaz.

No play on the second game of the "If" bet mentioned in the article. Just not feeling it today.