Kids F-Ball 11/11 to 11/15

[RBD]

Recap 1-0
Record 15-11
Review: Banked a unit with my only forum play last week, Fading my T1 Un spot in the N I'll/Tol game.
That spot is now 11-19.

Tonight, riding T1 Over.
It has a record of 24-15.
My numbers say there's a 61% chance Kent St/Ak goes Over the total tonight.

Also, the Zips have been in the spot once before this season and the game went Over.

The line opened at 48.
Off to do some line shopping, I'll stop back in with my number.

Update: Line opened at 48, now available from anywhere between 47' and 48', most books have 48'.
I doubt it'll drop but I'll wait a little bit in case the hook comes off.

Update:
Line starting to go up to 49, I grabbed the 48'.

[RBD]

Last night's spot worked out okay.
I had over 48', game landed on 77.

Back to the well tonight?
That spot, T1 Over, is now 25-15, 62%.

Eight more games qualify this week, including Buf/C Mich tonight.

I don't like when too many games qualify, when the number of games that qualify in the week is much higher than the usual weekly average, makes me think there's something wrong with my math.
But there was nothing wrong with it last night, so . . .

Not a fan of either team's offense.
They're both boring and low scoring.
But, I'll stick with my math and my models.

And I'm not a fan of the Chippewas, the little bastards screwed me about a week ago.
But again I'll stick with my . . . and right here is where I stopped doing my write-up and thought, "Before I post the play and then go buy it I forgot to check to see if either of these teams have been in this spot before."

And what did I find?
Oct 4, Buffalo qualified as a T1 Over, facing Eastern Michigan.
The line was 50.
They combined for 61.
A good sign in favor of the Over tonight, right?
Not really. It went over in OT.
Regulation ended at 48, 2 pts shy of an Over.

I missed this when I was updating my database with the weekend scores. If I played it it counts as a win on my record but for my database I don't handicap OT.
If a game ends regulation as an Under that's what it gets graded at.
Same as if I have an Under, that goes over in OT.
In that situation the Under is graded as a winner.

The adjusted/corrected record for this play is now 24-16, 60%. That's still two points above the 58% bar that I use to make a play or not, but I'm spooked off the play for tonight.

No play for me, just some additional info for anyone looking for angles on this game, and sharing the thought process for anyone who's new and learning how to handicap, and look at a game from all angles.

[RBD]

Missed out on a winner last night. Started out as the low scoring boring affair I thought it would be, only reason it went Ov is because of SEVEN turnovers, including two pick sixes.
I can't handicap for stuff like that.

Seven spots left for this play.
After Tuesday's win with the Zips and last night's win with Buffalo the record now stands at 25-16, 61%.

Problem is, once again find myself in that spot that I hate - jumping on a play after I stayed off it and it won.
But silly stupidstitions aside, I'm buying the next game that qualifies, Az/Cin, Saturday morning 12:00 PM EST start time.

Cincinnati qualify for this spot back in week 9 in their game against Utah.
The total was 56 (just like this week's game.)
They combined for 59.

The number is currently 56 but it's going to go higher by game time, so I bought it this morning and I'm posting this early buy notice.

Az/Cin Ov 56

[RBD]

Update #1:
63/63' are gone on the Marshall game.
WAN is now 62', that's the number I'll use.

Update#2: Georgia dropped to -5', but it's going back up again. Plenty of houses still at -6 but it's rising so I grabbed it that number.
Go Bulldogs, Woof Woof!

Still haven't bought LSU.
Picked up two full points by waiting.
WAN right now is 4'.
Waiting a little longer to see if that hook comes off.

[RBD]

Update #3:
Adding Sam Houston Ov 56, same spot as I missed with in the Az game.

Update #4:
I'm updating my data for the morning and early afternoon games and I see all these plays that I had that are winning but I didn't bet on. I said I was opening it up this week and I didn't.

I'm playing the next slate of games, let the chips fall where they may.

Adding Georgia and Ohio State Games.
T1 Over; 25-17 after the loss with the Cincinnati game but midday games Texas Tech, Western Kentucky look like they're going to go Over; Fla Atlanta looks like it will stay under. Three games I should have bet and could have gone 2-1.

Also adding T1 Fade on Unders, taking the Over in the Washington game. (T1 Un was 11-19 to start the day, a 63% Fade. The fade is 1-2 already today with New Mex, 'Bama, Illinois, Nevada, and East Carolina games playing right now, looks like they'll go 1-3 or 2-2.)

My afternoon bets:
Del/Sam H Over 56
Purdue/Wash Over 50
UCLA /Ohio State Over 46
Texas/Georgia Over 49