Champ Week

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 21-15

Review: Two week update.
Two weeks ago I had a loss with Miz/Ok Ov but hit two of three thanks to Toledo game Over and Arizona - 6.

Last week got revenge against Belichick with NC State.

I'll be back with reasonings but for right now because the line is climbing, I have James Madison -22'.

[RBD]

Update:
During the regular season I rely on my handicapping models for Wrong Favs and Totals but in postseason in college football I have an additional seven plays that I've been tracking for close to 20 years now.
For bowl games, I rate both teams in seven different categories.

For example, I rate rushing offenses (average yards per game.) When I bet on a team to win I expect them to be ahead in the fourth quarter, and I want to know that they can close out the game properly, rushing the ball and eating up the clock.

Another category I use is T/O's.
How many times have we seen a team dominate in the stats, all except for turnovers, and they lose the game. So I want the team with a plus on turnover differential, not a minus.

This year I decided to use the same Seven Categories model for championship week.
And, despite the big spread, I bought J Mad.

Here's why:

1 - They have the better number in all seven categories I rate.

2 - In 18 years of using this model, a data sample of over 700 games, there have only been 14 times when a team had a better number in all seven categories.
The record is 9-5, ATS, 64%.

3 - The T/O differential in this game is one of the largest I've ever seen, 27 (-7 for Troy, +20 for J Mad.)
Average rushing yards per game is also very favorable for J Mad, with a differential of almost 140.

In fact, most of the seven categories have a pretty sizable differential, which explains the large spread.

Those 14 games from that 9-5 record are from bowls, but I'm going to try it for the Championship Week this year.

Yes, the line is high.

Yes, I wish I'd gotten my handicapping work done sooner because this opened at 20'.
It would have been nice to get it at 21, but, as the saying goes, "The early bird gets the worm, and the late 'capper gets the hook" (or, in this case, an extra two points and the hook.)

I just checked - the line is up to 24 with extra juice on J Mad, so good thing I posted this a couple days ago.

Oh yeah, one more thing.
If you're leery of laying that many points (as I am) and wondering how the Dukes did this season as BIG Favs of 20 or >, so was I.
So I checked.
They're 3-1 ATS.
I'm in.

[RBD]

Saturday morning update.

J. Mad came out flat last night, totally out of rhythm on offense.

Unfortunately, no NP plays today. Expected though, it's rare that I get one on championship week or the bowl games.

Good move waiting to buy Georgia in my article pick.
Was at -2', now down to -1' at about 50% of shops.
Waiting a little longer to see if the hook comes off and I can get -1.

I doubt I'll add any college plays but I'm looking at them, as well as doing my NBA and college basketball handicapping this morning.