Bowl Dogs Sweet (?) Sixteen

[RBD]

New article up.
Another NP Under?
Time will tell.

Of the 16 Dogs that qualify I'd like to play 15, possibly laying off the play on Memphis because they lost three straight games at the end of the regular season (see my Tulane/Mississippi article on the record for teams that go into Bowls off of two or more SU losses.)

In addition to the two Dogs I already bought in previous articles, I'm adding a few more buys this morning because the lines are moving against me.

Here's my dance card for the 16 Dogs:
Navy -4 (opened at +3/+6 range)
Delaware +3
Missouri St $ line -102
Washington St +3, -115
Toledo +8
Hawaii +1'
New Mexico +3, -118
Wake Forest +3, -115

I bought Navy when I submitted my article, they're now up to -6, good move buying early.
I should have bought all of the games above earlier but I didn't come up with the play until last night, Monday 12/15.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Bowl Record: 1-0
(I normally keep separate records for article picks and Forum picks but I've got too much going on so to simplify things I'll just keep on record for the Bowls, all picks.)

Review: Banked a winner with my first Bowl play, no thanks to Jacksonville State head coach Charles Kelly. I mean, really - who tries a flea flicker from their own 10 yard line??!!
Result - a fumble in the end zone and a TD for Troy.

Anyway, it's in the books as a W and that's all that matters.

So, the Sixteen Dogs is 1-0, with 15 games left.

The first goal, if I play them all, would be to go 8-7 at worst case.
With one win in the books already I only need to go 7-7 the rest of the way to finish with a profit, and as I always say, ANY profit is a good thing, considering that 95% of sports bettors lose their money.

I mentioned I'll probably lay off Memphis, because of a conflict, but I didn't give details. It's because the Tigers lost their last three games of the regular season.
From my article data December 9th:

Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two or more SU losses in the regular season. It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-3 last year, making the two-year total 8-4, 67%.

Also, they're playing North Carolina State, and the Wolfpack was good to me at the end of the season, helping me bank a unit and get revenge against Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels.
I feel a sense of loyalty towards teams that were good to me (the opposite side of the coin, where I feel the need for revenge against teams that screwed me.)

Two more games in the Sixteen Dogs system between now and the Memphis game. If they both win, I may consider adding Memphis to my card.

And speaking of teams that lost two straight to end the season, I just noticed that Missouri State did also.
And I already bet them as part of the Sweet (?) Sixteen Dogs.
That game is tomorrow, Thursday, so I'll use it as an indicator to help me decide whether I want to play Memphis or not on Friday.

Next play - Delaware.
Good move buying it yesterday at +3 as they're only getting 2' this morning, and I expect it might drop even further.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 2-0
Review:
Came away unscathed in last night's game but again it took a last minute defensive stop to ensure the W.

I bought 8 of the 16 Dogs.
With two W's already in the bank I need to go no worse than 2-4 over the next six games to not get hurt.
A record of 3-3 or better guarantees me a profit.
I like my position on this Dog spot.

Next up, tonight, Missouri State.
A tough spot here. A mistake really.
I didn't buy Memphis because . . .
Bet AGAINST any team that enters the bowl game off of two or more SU losses in the regular season. It was 3-1 in 2023 and 5-3 last year, making the two-year total 8-4, 67%.

Memphis lost three straight to end the regular season.
I didn't notice that Missouri State lost their last two games of the regular season, or I wouldn't have bet it.
And because the line was so close to a pick 'em I took the money line instead of the points, +1', so if Ark St wins by one point I am not going to be happy.

Today I'll be looking at one more stat to see if I can come up with a subcategory for these Dogs that has an even higher win percentage.
If I find anything of value I'll post it in my next article or here in the Forum.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-1
Review:
From yesterday's update: "A mistake really."
If you're going to win you have to limit mistakes.
And this was one that was easily avoidable.
Eliminated Memphis but didn't notice Missouri State fit the same spot I wanted to avoid betting on.
My bad.

Still, on the plus side, so I got that to work with.

Three games to work with today. Obviously still laying off Memphis.
Nothing else fits, no playa to recommend.
Good luck with your plays today.

[RBD]

Just a heads up.

Right now, Western Michigan is up 34-0 with 5 minutes left in the first half. One of the bowl systems I've tracked for almost 18 years says that when a team gets shut out in the first half take their second half team total Under.

Reasoning - the losing team tends to just quit (especially if it's a blow out like today) and the winning team usually goes to a conservative offense, running the ball to use up the clock in the 4th quarter, reducing the losing team's TOP.

Going into the 2023 bowl season this was hitting at 67%, but it's come down over the last two years (eventually, over time, almost every stat/trend levels out.)

Coming into this Bowl season I have it at 37-26, 58%.

If Kennesaw State goes into the half scoreless and you're looking for action on the second half, check their team total. If you like the number the books post the Under is a decent play, percentage-wise.

Update: 34-0, a few seconds left on the clock, the Owls on the 15 yard line, and - they're going for the field goal.

Update #2: They missed.
Serves them right for being Pussy Boys and not going for a TD (not that there's much difference between 34-3 and 34-7, but still, he should at least pretend to be trying to win.)

Update #3: the second half line for the Owls team total was 9'/10. Our sponsor Bovada had it at 10.
They scored 6.
The updated record for that play is now 38-26, a solid 59% Fade.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Bowl Record: 4-1
Review: Washington State won SU as a 3-point dog.

So far, the new Dog system is working out well.
I've got three winners in (Jax St, Delaware, Wash St) from nine games bought. At 3-2 I only need to win two of the next four to come out ahead. They seem to be working, so I may add one or two more from the original tally of 16 spots.

Back with updates after I run some numbers...

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-1
Review:
A happy accident. In my weekly review article I mentioned that I was going to take a good look at Toledo then make a decision whether to add them to my card or not.
I forgot I bought them a week ago (post #1 above.)

The Rockets scored twice in the fourth quarter for the W.

Next dog up - Hawaii.
I bought this at +1'.
They're -1' today.
And where's the winning edge when a team that opened as a Dog becomes the Favorite?
I'll have an article up on that shortly, along with some other updated Bowl stats to help you navigate your way through the rest of the season.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-1
Review: Hawaii comes from behind to win.
Another Flip Flop Fav winner.
And another winner for the Sweet 16 Dogs!

W's with five of the sweet 16 Dogs and also my play on Mississippi from the Seven Sigma spot.
Only lost so far is that mistake on Missouri State.

NEXT!

[Meestermike]

tha_you21.gif thumbsup.gifThis is awesome RBD. Been tailing and winning.

[RBD]

Meester!!!!!
Well how the hell are you?
Been a long time old friend.
Hope you're well.
Thanks for stopping by, glad you got in on some of these dogs!