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**BoilerBacker** · 10-19-2015, 10:33 PM

Hit USC... just my opinion.

I also like Tulsa.

GL this week :beerbang:

**BoilerBacker** · 10-19-2015, 10:34 PM

By the way, that Duke line is going to be hit by pub as well.... again just my opinion.

**DukiesBaby** · 10-20-2015, 01:57 PM

I agree with that.

The difference between the Duke game and the Usc game, and what my 4 unit plays are all about.

I excpected Usc to be trouble for Utah and i have had this game circled for a while now. i bet futures when i can find good odds for them, i look for key games of potential losses.
anyways i expected this line to be from a pick em to Utah -2. i think u get the same action as utah +3.5 but with less risk on the books part of having a wrong side hook with lop sided wagering.

as for duke game i felt this spread is ABSURD. just like my other 4 unit plays LSU -13 over south carolina, anyone who watch week 1 of unc vs usc could see how bad south carolina was going to be this year, and to be matched up vs a juggernaut freight train like LSU spelled bad news and i expected a minimum 20 pt spread on a neutral site or away site.. the line did jump when they moved the game to lsu, but either way the difference between the 2 schools at -13 was ABSURD to me so i bet heavy. Oklahoma coming off a loss facing a k state team who put every ounce of blood they had on the field the week before vs tcu. playing an equally caliber team just as hungry for a win the very next week i could see nothing less then a -12 to -14 spread.. at -4 to me ABSURD, and again i bet it heavy. Mich st +7.5 forget that Michigan shutdown 3 garbage offenses 3 straight weeks. this is a big rivalry with an undefeated championship contending team on the other side of the ball. you can argue all day about how much better michigan is and i will listen to why they should be -6.5 -7 or anything less and see your point. but to give a td with the HOOK and some people got a full 8 points.. I even thought mich st would win straight up so 7 with a hook is ABSURD to me. On to Duke +3 i had this conversation about duke football with a nice old fella in southpoint sportsbook a couple weeks ago about how the books always undervalue duke games, you notice alot of duke games when they end up +5 t -5 Duke always finds a way to destroy teams. Vtech is not a very good football team. I have Duke as -6 in this game we are 9 points off here the man and me. i feel duke as any amount of underdog in this game is ABSURD.

when i see line that make me feel this way i dont wait for any line movements i just Play them instantly, in my train of thought if the line and i are this far off im getting the best line possible right now, sometimes i could get better sometimes i got it right, but in the end, most of the time the spread never mattered, i was on the right side at any spread, and in this case i feel that way with duke here, i would bet it like this at -4 to +100 million.

Just my thoughts
good luck :beerbang:

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