Week 2 college pigskin with flmmkrz

[flmmkrz]

Locked in a few early to get the numbers I wanted and I figure that it's early enough that if somebody has good enough reasons for me to look another way on a play I can still get out. So please share your thoughts...

Nebraska - 7 over Wake Forest @ -105 to win 1 unit

Kstate - 16.5 over SJ state @ -110 to win 1 unit

Mizzu - 6 over Ole Miss @ -105 to win 1 unit

Utah - 7 over Air Force @ -110 to win 1 unit

Tennesse - 10 over Southern Miss @ -115 to win 1 unit

and there's a few I haven't locked in cause the line has either moved in a bad way and im hoping it bounces back or I think still can move to a better number.

of those I like

Miami Ohio + 8.5 right now ( opened at 10, I'd like to get it at that again, publics all over minny.

Duke +16.5, hoping it can move to over 17, after last weeks performance vs uconn people gotta be down on duke but I think they can keep this one closer.

UCLA - 7 right now, lines dropping for some reason but if I can get it under a full score i'll be happy.

so let me know how horrid those picks are lol and any you think I should be looking over.

[Stifler's Mom]

One that stands out to me is Ole Miss. I think they probably win outright this week. IMO a lower end SEC team is better than a decent Big 12 team, and I certainly think they're as good as Illinois.

Which brings me to.....Mizzou had no real business winning the game at Illinois last week either, but since they did, I think it gives Miss a favorable line this week. They were fortunate to benefit from some turnovers, which led directly to points, and from Juice Williams getting hurt. I realize those things are part of the game, but take either one of them away (either the costly turnovers or the injury) and they lose that game to Illinois, and this line is a pick em or so, where it probably should be.

Then again, who the hell knows. I am like 7-18 for the season, so don't put any weight in anything thing I say right now, LOL

[hodown]

what are your thoughts on ucla?

[flmmkrz]

One that stands out to me is Ole Miss. I think they probably win outright this week. IMO a lower end SEC team is better than a decent Big 12 team, and I certainly think they're as good as Illinois.

Which brings me to.....Mizzou had no real business winning the game at Illinois last week either, but since they did, I think it gives Miss a favorable line this week. They were fortunate to benefit from some turnovers, which led directly to points, and from Juice Williams getting hurt. I realize those things are part of the game, but take either one of them away (either the costly turnovers or the injury) and they lose that game to Illinois, and this line is a pick em or so, where it probably should be.

Then again, who the hell knows. I am like 7-18 for the season, so don't put any weight in anything thing I say right now, LOL

I feel the exact opposite lol, I think ole miss pulling out the game last week when they were really never in it inflated this line for them. I really like Mizzou to lay the boots this weekend. Memphis was terrible on d and ole miss still couldn't move the ball with any consistancy. 23-0 and only one sustained drive the entire game the rest of the points off turnovers. They couldn't eat up the clock, they couldn't put together first downs, they were brutal. Mizzou may be bad on d but are they much worse than Memphis, I think they're equally as bad but I do believe Ole miss is worse on offense than Illinois. On defense tho, Hankins ripped Ole Miss apart and he's a civ. 41-60, 343 but he tosses 4 red zone ints. He forced balls in the red zone if they're gonna let Chase Daniel move the ball like that he isn't bailing them out like Hankins did. I could see Mizzou laying as many point on Ole miss as they did on Illinois but I cant see how Ole miss opens up the offense enough to keep close.

[flmmkrz]

what are your thoughts on ucla?

I like the BYU team but getting the bruins for less than a td seems hard to pass up. The bruins d should be a tougher test for Hall than Zona was and being the home opener for the bruins should prove to be a difficult spot for him as well. The bruins offense wasn't all that impressive last year but another year under its belt and a nice performance last week hopefully will give them some confidence coming into this week against the solid d of byus. In the end if I take it it'll be on the big talent edge that the bruins will have, that the cougs qb is relativly inexperienced vs the experience of Olson and that the cougs look to only have one major weapon in back Unga, if UCLA schemes to take him out of the game do the cougs have enough guys who can step up? If it 10+ points I'd be leaning byu but under 7 and im on ucla.

[birdsfan5]

GL flmmkrz Like Nebraska:beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

Always nice to read your opinion on a game, and you may be 100% right. I didn't see Ole Miss play last week, but I did know they benefitted from a bunch of turnovers, as did Mizzou. I still say Mizzou loses by about a TD last week if so many things hadn't gone in their favor, against an Illinois team that may be headed in the right direction, but is still not really that great, and lost their leader, and easily their best skill player as well, early on in the game with Juice Williams.

Basically, I don't feel like Mizzou is a team who should be laying road chalk vs any SEC team....even if it's a bad one. I feel like they're just a tad over rated, and their defense just stinks. They couldn't stop an Illinois team led by their back up QB, and while I realize Ole Miss doesn't have much on offense (they never do, lol), I still think they will get their share against the swiss cheese Mizzou calls a defense, and I think once again that Mizzou will probably need breaks to go in their favor in order to cover the road chalk, unless Ole Miss is even more pathetic that i think, lol.

Plus the oddsmakers aren't giving them any respect either, putting them down as -6 road faves and not moving the line, despite the public being on them at 92%, which is one of the key things I always look for to try and confirm that I'm leaning in the right direction with my thoughts before making a play.

I'd like to catch at least a TD with Ole Miss though if i could.

GL with em this week

[flmmkrz]

yeah I don't love that it's a huge public play and the line hasn't moved but I can only go by what I've seen and what my dd tells me is the play and if it has me on the same side of the public so be it. They win once and a while lol.

I totally agree with you on Mizzou they didn't impress me at all last week, well on defense anyway. Juice going down was huge and yet Mizzou doesn't pull away? Just comes down to I think the tigers score at will in this one while Ole miss even against a porous d can't. For me to look at ole miss i'd need to be seeing about 14, Im already on mizzou but if I werent I would take them as high as 10, 10-13 and it'd be a no play and 14 I'd lean Ole miss reluctantly.

[flmmkrz]

Alright finalized list of plays:

Nebraska -7 to win 3 units

Kstate -16.5 to win 1 unit

Mizzou -6 to win 1 unit

Tennesse - 10 to win 1 unit

Bowling Green + 18 to win 1 unit

Georgia - 3 to win 1 unit

Wazzou - 13.5 to win 1 unit

South Florida + 7 to win 1 unit

Ark State + 3.5 to win 1 unit


1st quarter plays:

WVU - 6.5 to win 1 unit
Wyoming -6 to win 1 unit
Tex tech -4.5 to win 1 unit
Wisconsin -6.5 to win 1 unit
Hawaii -6.5 to win 1 unit

Teasers:

still pending from today Rutgers -9.5 (won) x Minny -2 to win 1 unit

bought out my utah play and passed on ucla, would like to see them put up a performance like last week against this byu team before I believe that offense is legit.

Lot more plays than I was planning on playing eek.

GL everyone and come on Huskers

[flmmkrz]

Could've gone for a better start than wvus mediocre first quarter. That 1st quarter play is a loser but im not updating yet added a teaser:

7 point 6 team teaser pays 5 to 1

Temple +3.5 x Duke + 25.5 x Notre Dame + 24.5 x Air Force + 14 x TCU + 16.5 x Wazzou -7

A few really bad teams in this one getting a lot of points here's hoping for no major blowouts. 1 unit play

[flmmkrz]

wvu -13.5 points 2nd half - 127 to win 1 unit

give them the chance to pay me back for that 1st quarter

[Stifler's Mom]

Wondering why you dropped Utah -7 off your final plays list. I like that play, so I was wondering if there was a reason why you dropped it?

Also, I see alot of people whom I consider to be good handicappers on Arkansas St +3.5. I am considering tailing a bunch of you on that one, but I haven't really seen any reasoning, so I'm still not sure....

[flmmkrz]

Wondering why you dropped Utah -7 off your final plays list. I like that play, so I was wondering if there was a reason why you dropped it?

Also, I see alot of people whom I consider to be good handicappers on Arkansas St +3.5. I am considering tailing a bunch of you on that one, but I haven't really seen any reasoning, so I'm still not sure....

No starting qb, no starting rb, thats a lot to overcome even against a bad team. Wasn't confident enough in it so I just dropped it.

As for Arky state, they played great last week while Memphis will be without its back Doss and in watching Hankins last week force balls into coverage only to throw pick after pick I could see him having trouble with the very good secondary that Ark state has. Also a rivalry game and in Arkansas, enough for me to take the points here.

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks. I think I still have to back Utah though on principle. 80% of the public on a dog? LOL

I was just weary that Ark St's performance vs Texas last week overvalued them a bit in the eyes of the public....but I didn't see that game to really know what to think of them. Might jump on board though with that one :beerbang:

[flmmkrz]

constantly adding lol

10 point 3 team teaser @ -130 to win 1 unit

Wazzou - 3 x Tennesse -1.5 x South Florida + 17