Ron Paul is badass. He's hardcore on our 2nd Amendment Rights, The Right to Bear Arms. Since I'm from Texas, we Texas folks love our guns and women. Two things to don't dare **** with, or else... :thumbs:
Ron Paul 08...Vote him in!
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Well Queen he just raised over 5M this past quarter!
His odds are 6-1
Real Money Says Ron Paul Has a Shot by Bob Murphy
Real Money Says Ron Paul Has a Shot
by Bob Murphy
by Bob Murphy
DIGG THIS
In addition to being a mild-mannered economist by day, I am an avid fan of gambling and all its devices. (Though since I still am the property of student lender Sallie Mae, I have been a mere spectator of the gambling world for the last several years.) I am here to inform Ron Paul fans that "the market" – the gambling website Intrade.com – says his chances of winning the GOP nomination are now 6.1%. In contrast, McCain’s chances are 5.4%, and Huckabee’s a meager 3.2%.
Beyond the fact that Ron Paul is now in 4th place – and being ahead of McCain, is now surely a "real" candidate – is his meteoric rise since late May. Just look at this chart from Intrade:
To make sense of all this, let me briefly explain how Intrade works. It is fashioned after a futures market (such as in oil or pork bellies), where participants can buy or sell contracts contingent on future events. Now in the case of the "2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL" contract, the buyer (as of October 2) pays $6.10 for a contract entitling him to a $100 payoff if Ron Paul gets the Republican nomination. In contrast, the seller of this contract receives $6.10, but might have to pay out the $100 if Paul gets the nomination. Obviously, if Ron Paul doesn’t get nominated, then the buyer of the contract gets nothing – he’s out his $6.10 – and the seller gets to pocket the $6.10.
There are imperfections due to transaction costs and other frictions, but the probabilities of all the possible outcomes should sum (close to) 100%, because otherwise there would be pure arbitrage opportunities. For example, if the sum of the contract prices totaled only $98, then someone could buy one of each, and be guaranteed a profit of $2 (since one of the contracts would "hit"). On the other hand, if the contracts summed to $103, then someone could sell one of each, earning $103, and then only have to pay out $100 when one of them hit – thus netting a guaranteed profit of $3. So generally speaking, the contract prices should all sum to $100.
Of course, people with inside information stand to profit by trading in this market. If a technician at a health clinic comes across a very disturbing heart exam for McCain, that person could rush out and sell contracts on McCain’s nomination – and thereby push down the price of a McCain contract. On the other hand, if a Romney campaign staffer learned that Mitt was going to receive an honorary degree from a university, he could rush to buy contracts on his candidate, and thereby push up their price.
It’s because of the arbitrage element, and the fact that people with inside information can trade on it, that leads economists to loosely say that "the market" assigns a probability of (right now) 6.1% to a Ron Paul nomination. Sure, there are all sorts of objections you could raise to that type of talk; some purists reject the very idea of statistical language in the arena of politics. But you get the idea.
Before closing, let me stress two final points. First, this isn’t some Podunk contract that four hicks (who like to spam Fox voting schemes) are trading back and forth. No, when last I checked, the volume was over 63,000 Ron Paul contracts being transacted. (So if this is manipulation, it’s very very expensive.)
Second, some readers might be thinking, "Big deal! Ron’s gotten much higher than 6.1% in various straw polls and other surveys." But that’s just the thing, folks, and why I’m so excited about this. The Intrade contract isn’t asking, "Which candidate do you want to be nominated?" It’s asking, "Which candidate do you predict will be nominated?"
And I think it’s incredibly encouraging – for lovers of liberty, that is – that Ron Paul has broken through the 6% mark, and is now in 4th place. The great thing is, the three front-runners are only a gaffe away from forfeiting their position, just as McCain did with his immigration photo op with Ted Kennedy. In contrast, everybody already knows what Ron Paul stands for; he doesn’t need to delicately protect his carefully scripted image.
The pundits are still dismissing Ron Paul as a fringe candidate who isn’t "serious." Well, there’s a lot of actual money on the table saying that he is indeed a contender for the GOP nomination.Leave a comment:
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Now why would you put :nuts: at the end of your post Billy. Guess the message is getting out.
I would love to see him get elected. Be great for this country to have someone shake things up. The heck with making everyone in the world happy. He's got some very good politics.Leave a comment:
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He's stirred up Vegas a bit.
2000 RON PAUL 800 Was this not real high last month??
2001 HILLARY CLINTON 200
2002 JOHN MCCAIN 400
2003 MARK WARNER 2500
2004 GEORGE ALLEN 3500
2005 JOHN EDWARDS 600
2006 RUDOLPH GIULIANI 200
2011 MITCH ROMNEY 600Leave a comment:
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Ron Paul: Our Power, Our Responsibility
Ron Paul: Our Power, Our ResponsibilityLeave a comment:
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Oh man see this is just a great video! I just had to pause it to thank you! I'm not much of a political person but what Ron Paul stands for just gives me hope for this country!
Thank you to everyone who has posted a positive responds! All we need is for Dr. Paul to win the Primary's, the rest will fall into place! Please make sure your registered to vote for the primary's! This is Hugh!!!!! Oh and to vote in the Primary's! LOL
Thank you again!
BB:thumbs:Leave a comment:
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Just dropped $100 to his campaign. I am 35 years old, and have never given money to a campaign.
You should too...Leave a comment:
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Guest repliedresearch
Billy - first off, it is great to see so many familiar names on such a great web site - I read the other site for several years. Always enjoyed the reading.
Next, I am from Texas, and even here, there isn't much news about Ron Paul - They stay with the "Big" names on most things. I will be following his candidacy much more closely now. Thanks for the links and the info - always great stuff.Leave a comment:
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Billy....I wasnt following the primaries or the candidates at all, but man those videos are great!! I love this guy, I have been researching on him and I really hope somehow he wins the Republican nomination! its obsurd how the mainstream media is trying to go after this guy.... got another good video for ya
YouTube - Ron Paul : Restoring Hope and Integrity 2Leave a comment:
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Yeah RP won the Debate hands down last night with 33% of the text votes! Fox said that they were spammed with callers! Funny thing is you could only vote once per phone!
You can not find the poll on fox news anywhere!
LOL Have to love them
BBLeave a comment:
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