MLB Wednesday - 04/04

[rjp]

YTD: 0-2 (-2.00 units)

Tampa Bay Devil Rays +1.5 (+160)

This is such a great price that I feel there's a damn good chance this moves overnight, so I'm taking it now. This is a steal. True odds are ~49%! (If, of course, you feel the Yankees win 74% of the time, which I see no reason to dispute).

The alternate run line provides no value either way (even though it's almost +400), as the true odds are roughly -407/+407.

[rjp]

I'm a moron. If anyone sees this, please change it to 04/04 instead of 04/03. :nuts:

[joepa66]

That freaking Sunday "opener" has us all screwed up.....GL withe the DrDrays RJ! :beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

I'm a moron. If anyone sees this, please change it to 04/04 instead of 04/03. :nuts:

Done.

I also have a question for ya. I know you keep track of alot of things, so what I was wondering is....do you have any idea if it would be profitable to play some of these teams with bad bullpens (like TB) on the first 5 innings rather than the whole game? I seemed to get burned so many times last year on teams like TB and KC as big dogs in the 6th to 9th innings after leading or at least being tied thru the 5th that I lost count in about mid April already, lol.

I'm not sure KC will qualify as a "****ty" bullpen team this year or not. They seem to have made some improvements out there in the pen, so I'll have to wait and see how that works out for em, but TB still without a doubt has a piece of **** bullpen....and I'm sure a few more will emerge as the year goes on who can't hold a lead.

My thinking is that these "****ty" bullpen teams have really little to no chance of coming back to win late, since their bullpen will rarely outduel the other team's bullpen, even if the offense does post a few late runs....so even if you're giving up a little line value to play the first 5, you should more than make up for it with the extra wins you'd get.

Just wondering if that was anything you ever kept track of.

Thanks :beerbang:

[emv01]

I actually just done done reading that Betting Baseball 2007 book and in it, it talk about betting teams with the weaker bullpens for the first 5 innings so you don't have to suffer through your team being up with the starter in and then say Brad Lidge coming in an taking a squat...

[rjp]

Stif, thanks!

As emv01 said, Murray tracked this, and 18% of all games will have the winning team after five innings blow a lead. This is likely to be higher for a team with a bad bullpen, but these teams aren't likely to win all that many games, either.

The only real problem with this strategy is the lack of outs that offer these bets and favorable prices. If you identify a team with a weak bullpen but they have a strong starting pitching matchup then you're likely better off taking the 5th inning bet. If they're losing after 5 then they're most likely going to lose after 9.

[birdsfan5]

GL rjp

[rjp]

Thanks birds.

Rest of the lines look sharp again today. :gulp:

[rjp]

Postponed. :beer2: