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Cubs -120 3 Units
I really like the pitching and managerial matchup here. Plus the Reds drawing so much love as a dog. They struggled with Hernandez the other day and Garza is a very similar pitcher. He will come after them and won't walk guys and I think they struggle with that. Volquez is walking way too many guys and you just can't pitch well consistently doing that. I think he gets hit around today.
Houston +105 2 Units
I expect a low scoring game and I lean to the under but I also like Houston to get the W. Pitt is coming back from the west coast and has really struggled against LHP's who are around or slightly below Wandy's talent level. They have been winning the games but without much offense in any of the starts. Houston appeared to have good energy and with Bourgeouis in the lineup it gives them two speedsters to generate instant offense after a walk or single without any other hits. I also like the healthier young players of their lineups (Wallace, Johnson and Pence) over what the middle of the Pirates order is offering right now with Overbay in there and Alvarez and McCutcheon still in funks.
Atlanta +140 4 Units
This line is a joke. The Phillies are on this great winning tear but they are facing guys who are barely 3rd - 5th starters. If you look at the starting pitchers they have faced in the last 3 weeks they have lost every starter against every half decent or better pitcher and managed to beat every scrub (That's you Saunders, Lannan, Marquis, Livan, Niese, Pelphrey, LeBlanc, Stauffer, Richard, atleast Latos is decent although he isn't pitching that way, Narveson) You have to go all the way back to 4/17 when they beat Anibal Sanchez (yes, I am reaching) to find a halfway decent starter they beat. I do realize they swept Atlanta the week before that but that was before Atlanta started playing well. They just beat Marcum, Gallardo and Greinke who aren't quite Cliff Lee but aren't that far away. Throw in the public perception of the Phils (Harold Reynolds said they are the class of the league last night and that is when they aren't even playing well on offense.) Apparently Harold isn't aware that the Phils offense will likely get worse during the summer with all the guys playing over their heads. Lowe battles and has a great track record against the Phils lineup. I expect a tight game but one that has Atlanta with the significantly better lineup and bullpen.
Tampa/Baltimore Under 8 +100 2 Units
I like both starters and am a believer. Neither offense is really consistent and depends on other teams making mistakes for them take advantage. I think the ability of Shields and Britton to limit baserunners will really help the total since their won't be as many chances to make big errors. I'm leaning to a 3-2ish Baltimore win. The only concern I have is the Baltimore pen but I expect Britton to be able to go atleast 6 strong and give this a very good chance even with a mediocre bullpen performance.
Boston/Minny over 9' 2 Units
My analysis leads to the play although I have been horrific on Minny totals. I don't expect either pitcher to be very effective.
Cleveland -115 3 Units
Less travel, better pitcher, better lineup, equal momentum and they know they need this one before Weaver and Haren.
glta
I really like the pitching and managerial matchup here. Plus the Reds drawing so much love as a dog. They struggled with Hernandez the other day and Garza is a very similar pitcher. He will come after them and won't walk guys and I think they struggle with that. Volquez is walking way too many guys and you just can't pitch well consistently doing that. I think he gets hit around today.
Houston +105 2 Units
I expect a low scoring game and I lean to the under but I also like Houston to get the W. Pitt is coming back from the west coast and has really struggled against LHP's who are around or slightly below Wandy's talent level. They have been winning the games but without much offense in any of the starts. Houston appeared to have good energy and with Bourgeouis in the lineup it gives them two speedsters to generate instant offense after a walk or single without any other hits. I also like the healthier young players of their lineups (Wallace, Johnson and Pence) over what the middle of the Pirates order is offering right now with Overbay in there and Alvarez and McCutcheon still in funks.
Atlanta +140 4 Units
This line is a joke. The Phillies are on this great winning tear but they are facing guys who are barely 3rd - 5th starters. If you look at the starting pitchers they have faced in the last 3 weeks they have lost every starter against every half decent or better pitcher and managed to beat every scrub (That's you Saunders, Lannan, Marquis, Livan, Niese, Pelphrey, LeBlanc, Stauffer, Richard, atleast Latos is decent although he isn't pitching that way, Narveson) You have to go all the way back to 4/17 when they beat Anibal Sanchez (yes, I am reaching) to find a halfway decent starter they beat. I do realize they swept Atlanta the week before that but that was before Atlanta started playing well. They just beat Marcum, Gallardo and Greinke who aren't quite Cliff Lee but aren't that far away. Throw in the public perception of the Phils (Harold Reynolds said they are the class of the league last night and that is when they aren't even playing well on offense.) Apparently Harold isn't aware that the Phils offense will likely get worse during the summer with all the guys playing over their heads. Lowe battles and has a great track record against the Phils lineup. I expect a tight game but one that has Atlanta with the significantly better lineup and bullpen.
Tampa/Baltimore Under 8 +100 2 Units
I like both starters and am a believer. Neither offense is really consistent and depends on other teams making mistakes for them take advantage. I think the ability of Shields and Britton to limit baserunners will really help the total since their won't be as many chances to make big errors. I'm leaning to a 3-2ish Baltimore win. The only concern I have is the Baltimore pen but I expect Britton to be able to go atleast 6 strong and give this a very good chance even with a mediocre bullpen performance.
Boston/Minny over 9' 2 Units
My analysis leads to the play although I have been horrific on Minny totals. I don't expect either pitcher to be very effective.
Cleveland -115 3 Units
Less travel, better pitcher, better lineup, equal momentum and they know they need this one before Weaver and Haren.
glta
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