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Don't ask me why, but I'm making a lot of Home Run Derby notes, and I figured I'd stick them here. A sportsbook I'm using is giving a pretty nice promo on the derby, and I think I can come out ahead even if I don't pick the winner. Admittedly, I'm not a huge baseball fan, though I'm decent at betting it. So I don't know these players that well.
Seeding (with odds): I'm not sure how they determined these seeds or if they have any relevance, but the matchups in the bracket are based on the seeding.
(EDIT: I read that the seeding was done based on home runs as of July 4th), so they weren't just randomly done.)
1. Luis Robert Jr. (+500)
2. Pete Alonso (+310)
3. Mookie Betts (+1100)
4. Adolis Garcia (+700)
5. Randy Arozarena (+1000)
6. Vlad Guerrero (+370)
7. Julio Rodriguez (+500)
8. Adley Rutschman (+1800)
1st Round Matchups:
Luis Robert Jr. vs.Adley Rutschman
Pete Alonzo vs. Julio Rodriguez
Mookie Betts vs. Vlad Guerrero
Adolis Garcia vs. Randy Azorena
I'll be adding and editing this thread constantly just in case the site or my computer freezes to save my work.
Who I am omitting Off the Break:
Adley Rutschman (+1800) - He's the last man in, and frankly doesn't belong. Hence why his odds are paying so much. It's possible he performs with a chip on his shoulder, and I think he does have a chance to pull off the upset in round 1. Ever since they started the 1-8 seeding in 2015, the 8 seed is 5-2 against the 1 seed, including winning the last 5 matchups in a row. An 8 seed hasn't won the whole thing with the new seeding. Whoever wins this matchup faces the winner of the Adolis Garcia and Randy Azorena matchup. I just don't see the guy with the lowest odds winning. He only has 12 HR on the season. That's less than half the other guys.
Mookie Betts (+1100) - Maybe I don't know this guy as well as I should, but I never really considered him a power hitter. I considered him a good hitter for average. Surprisingly, he is tied for third in the league in home runs (26 along with Pete Alonso and Luis Robert Jr.). So he is tied for the most HR in this competition, yet he's paying 10-1, and is 7th out of 8 in odds of winning. Seems like too much value there, so that's a hard pass.
Julio Rodriguez (+500) - I may regret this, but I feel iike a lot of people are going to bet this guy because he's in his home stadium, and because he made the finals last year. Small sample size, but no one who finished second has avenged their loss and won it afterwards. I think think 5-1 on the runner up with home field advantage is too juicy. So I will reluctantly pass on this guy.
Who I am Considering: (Basically Everyone Else).
Pete Alonso (+310) - The favorite to win the derby, but still paying 3-1. I almost omitted him altogether because he won it before, but then I found out that he's one of four players to ever win it twice (2019 and 2021). Surely no one can win it three times right? Wrong, Ken Griffey Jr. won it 3 times before. He will have his work cutout for him drawing Julio Rodriguez in round 1. Round 2 he would face the winner of Mookie Betts and Vlad Guerrero. Alonso has the toughest path to the finals IMO. And he could be exhausted after defeating Rodriguez and Vlad just to get there.
He does have history on his side. He is the 2 seed, and the 2 seed has won 4 out of the 7 derbies with this format.
Luis Robert Jr. (+500) - Tied with Pete Alonso and Mookie Betts for third in the league in HRs with 26. Doesn't get the name recognition of the other two do. I like that he has the same number of HRs as Mookie, but pays half as much. In general, that means he is twice as likely to win, and he also has the third best odds to win. He's also facing Rutschman in the first round, which should be the easiest matchup of the competition.
Adolis Garcia (+700) - This guy is 4th in HRs this season with 23, but that's still 4th in the derby behind Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, and Luis Robert. I like the matchup if you pair it with a Luis Robert bet. Because I feel like Rutchsman has no chance to win, either Garcia or Luis Robert has a clear path to the final. If you bet both, you should have a finalist.
Randy Arozarena (+1000) - The Rays started the season hot, and he is their best hitter. But he only has 16 HRs on the season, and it feels like he doesn't belong. If there was anyone to screw bettors over and win, it would be him because I doubt anyone would bet this guy, especially as the Rays limp into the All Star Break. As a 1 unit hedge, it makes sense to take this guy for a little insurance at 10-1. The 5 seed has also won 2 out of the 7 derbies.
Vlad Guerrero (+370) - The second highest odds to win the derby. Vlad will be a popular play, as I believe he has the most power of anyone in the group. He also got second place 2019, and as I mentioned no runner up has ever won the whole thing. I really wanted to include Vlad in my combination. As a blind fan, I picked him without even looking at anything. I'm still deciding between Vlad and Pete Alonso.
IMO, the bracket with Alonso, Rodriguez, and Guerrero will be the most entertaining and competitive. They're going to wear themselves out trying to one up each other. That leaves the winner of the other side of the bracket in prime position to take advantage.
So I'm looking at doing a combination that looks something like this:
Pete Alonzo or Vlad Guerrero for 2.5 units. I will use the promo on this one to increase the payout, since they pay the least. But I will only pick one and completely omit the other. You can't bet on everyone.
Luis Robert Jr. for 2 Units. If this scenario plays out, if he wins, I would come out ahead at 5-1 odds.
Adolis Garcia for 2 Units. I think I'm going to pick this guy to win, and at 7 to 1 odds it's a good payout when I believe him or Luis Robert have a clear path to the final.
Randy Arozarena for 1 unit. This would be my insurance play. If he manages to beat Adolis Garcia in round 1, he can take advantage of the clear path to the final the other two have.
With these combinations, I believe I come out ahead as long as Guerrero, Mookie, Rutschman, and Julio Rodriguez don't win. Basically I'm betting on 4 guys against the other 4 guys. But in my scenario, I would get 3 of the top 5 most likely winners, omitting the bottom two longshot people.
Honestly, there's value all over the place with the odds they're offering. Getting 3 to 1 if you bet Alonso seems like good value for a guy that has won two out of the last 3 derbies. But if he was so likely to win, the line would be like +125 at most. Getting +370 on Guerrero seems like value for the guy with the most power in the competition. But I think he'll be more focused on crushing the ball for the farthest homer, rather than actually winning. So the decision between Alonso and Guerrero is tough, because I don't think either of them wins, but I must pick one in this scenario. Also, it's insurance to have one of the favorites on the other side of the bracket in case I'm dead wrong about Adley Rutschman and he makes the finals.
And I'm just going out on a limb and fading Julio Rodriguez because I think he's the guy the most people are going to bet on as the best value on his home field.
Yeah, it may seem like a stupid plan, but I'm going with it.
Seeding (with odds): I'm not sure how they determined these seeds or if they have any relevance, but the matchups in the bracket are based on the seeding.
(EDIT: I read that the seeding was done based on home runs as of July 4th), so they weren't just randomly done.)
1. Luis Robert Jr. (+500)
2. Pete Alonso (+310)
3. Mookie Betts (+1100)
4. Adolis Garcia (+700)
5. Randy Arozarena (+1000)
6. Vlad Guerrero (+370)
7. Julio Rodriguez (+500)
8. Adley Rutschman (+1800)
1st Round Matchups:
Luis Robert Jr. vs.Adley Rutschman
Pete Alonzo vs. Julio Rodriguez
Mookie Betts vs. Vlad Guerrero
Adolis Garcia vs. Randy Azorena
I'll be adding and editing this thread constantly just in case the site or my computer freezes to save my work.
Who I am omitting Off the Break:
Adley Rutschman (+1800) - He's the last man in, and frankly doesn't belong. Hence why his odds are paying so much. It's possible he performs with a chip on his shoulder, and I think he does have a chance to pull off the upset in round 1. Ever since they started the 1-8 seeding in 2015, the 8 seed is 5-2 against the 1 seed, including winning the last 5 matchups in a row. An 8 seed hasn't won the whole thing with the new seeding. Whoever wins this matchup faces the winner of the Adolis Garcia and Randy Azorena matchup. I just don't see the guy with the lowest odds winning. He only has 12 HR on the season. That's less than half the other guys.
Mookie Betts (+1100) - Maybe I don't know this guy as well as I should, but I never really considered him a power hitter. I considered him a good hitter for average. Surprisingly, he is tied for third in the league in home runs (26 along with Pete Alonso and Luis Robert Jr.). So he is tied for the most HR in this competition, yet he's paying 10-1, and is 7th out of 8 in odds of winning. Seems like too much value there, so that's a hard pass.
Julio Rodriguez (+500) - I may regret this, but I feel iike a lot of people are going to bet this guy because he's in his home stadium, and because he made the finals last year. Small sample size, but no one who finished second has avenged their loss and won it afterwards. I think think 5-1 on the runner up with home field advantage is too juicy. So I will reluctantly pass on this guy.
Who I am Considering: (Basically Everyone Else).
Pete Alonso (+310) - The favorite to win the derby, but still paying 3-1. I almost omitted him altogether because he won it before, but then I found out that he's one of four players to ever win it twice (2019 and 2021). Surely no one can win it three times right? Wrong, Ken Griffey Jr. won it 3 times before. He will have his work cutout for him drawing Julio Rodriguez in round 1. Round 2 he would face the winner of Mookie Betts and Vlad Guerrero. Alonso has the toughest path to the finals IMO. And he could be exhausted after defeating Rodriguez and Vlad just to get there.
He does have history on his side. He is the 2 seed, and the 2 seed has won 4 out of the 7 derbies with this format.
Luis Robert Jr. (+500) - Tied with Pete Alonso and Mookie Betts for third in the league in HRs with 26. Doesn't get the name recognition of the other two do. I like that he has the same number of HRs as Mookie, but pays half as much. In general, that means he is twice as likely to win, and he also has the third best odds to win. He's also facing Rutschman in the first round, which should be the easiest matchup of the competition.
Adolis Garcia (+700) - This guy is 4th in HRs this season with 23, but that's still 4th in the derby behind Pete Alonso, Mookie Betts, and Luis Robert. I like the matchup if you pair it with a Luis Robert bet. Because I feel like Rutchsman has no chance to win, either Garcia or Luis Robert has a clear path to the final. If you bet both, you should have a finalist.
Randy Arozarena (+1000) - The Rays started the season hot, and he is their best hitter. But he only has 16 HRs on the season, and it feels like he doesn't belong. If there was anyone to screw bettors over and win, it would be him because I doubt anyone would bet this guy, especially as the Rays limp into the All Star Break. As a 1 unit hedge, it makes sense to take this guy for a little insurance at 10-1. The 5 seed has also won 2 out of the 7 derbies.
Vlad Guerrero (+370) - The second highest odds to win the derby. Vlad will be a popular play, as I believe he has the most power of anyone in the group. He also got second place 2019, and as I mentioned no runner up has ever won the whole thing. I really wanted to include Vlad in my combination. As a blind fan, I picked him without even looking at anything. I'm still deciding between Vlad and Pete Alonso.
IMO, the bracket with Alonso, Rodriguez, and Guerrero will be the most entertaining and competitive. They're going to wear themselves out trying to one up each other. That leaves the winner of the other side of the bracket in prime position to take advantage.
So I'm looking at doing a combination that looks something like this:
Pete Alonzo or Vlad Guerrero for 2.5 units. I will use the promo on this one to increase the payout, since they pay the least. But I will only pick one and completely omit the other. You can't bet on everyone.
Luis Robert Jr. for 2 Units. If this scenario plays out, if he wins, I would come out ahead at 5-1 odds.
Adolis Garcia for 2 Units. I think I'm going to pick this guy to win, and at 7 to 1 odds it's a good payout when I believe him or Luis Robert have a clear path to the final.
Randy Arozarena for 1 unit. This would be my insurance play. If he manages to beat Adolis Garcia in round 1, he can take advantage of the clear path to the final the other two have.
With these combinations, I believe I come out ahead as long as Guerrero, Mookie, Rutschman, and Julio Rodriguez don't win. Basically I'm betting on 4 guys against the other 4 guys. But in my scenario, I would get 3 of the top 5 most likely winners, omitting the bottom two longshot people.
Honestly, there's value all over the place with the odds they're offering. Getting 3 to 1 if you bet Alonso seems like good value for a guy that has won two out of the last 3 derbies. But if he was so likely to win, the line would be like +125 at most. Getting +370 on Guerrero seems like value for the guy with the most power in the competition. But I think he'll be more focused on crushing the ball for the farthest homer, rather than actually winning. So the decision between Alonso and Guerrero is tough, because I don't think either of them wins, but I must pick one in this scenario. Also, it's insurance to have one of the favorites on the other side of the bracket in case I'm dead wrong about Adley Rutschman and he makes the finals.
And I'm just going out on a limb and fading Julio Rodriguez because I think he's the guy the most people are going to bet on as the best value on his home field.
Yeah, it may seem like a stupid plan, but I'm going with it.
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