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MLB Underdog Chase system thoughts/discussion

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  • MLB Underdog Chase system thoughts/discussion

    Looking for some thoughts/discussion on starting out an underdog chase:

    1) Obviously need proper bankroll management. I'm looking at 1% for the first game, 2% for the second, 3% for the third, 4% for the fourth

    2) Requires having access to bet via computer, smartphone, etc each game of the series. If I know I will be away from technology, I won't start the series chase.

    Other than bankroll management/access, can you guys think of any other hinderances?

    In terms of paring down the card:

    1) Divisional games are typically tight. I'm thinking AL Central and East, NL West, maybe NL Central

    2) Would it be wise to do a strict underdog chase meaning if team A is underdog in game one, you bet team A. If they're the favorite in game two, bet team B? Or do you stick with team A throughout the series?

    3) Elimination criteria: looking at bullpens after the first month, maybe home vs away stats etc?

    Anyone have any experience in these or thoughts with what sort of criteria to use?
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

  • #2
    Okay, I think I have a few parameters to begin testing this out:

    1) Using ESPN's RPI rankings, I have assigned a value to each team (currently Yankees #1, Astros #30). By averaging these numbers I have gotten a divisional power ranking - best) AL East: 10.4, worst) NL Central: 19

    I am looking for divisions using the above rankings that are "competitive." I have defined this as over 50% of the teams in the upper 15 or lower 15. Example, the AL East has teams ranked 1, 5, 6, 12, 28 - because four of the five teams are ranked in the top 15, I consider this a competitive division. Meanwhile the AL Central has teams ranked 4, 17, 20, 21, 22 - because four of the five teams are ranked in the lower 15, I consider this a competitive division as well.

    Not that we can predict sweeps, but I would gather a better team would sweep just as much as a poorer team would get swept. Of course we want to stick to those divisions right in the middle. Example, AL West has teams ranked 2, 3, 25, 29 - with the Angels and Rangers possibly owning the Mariners and the Athletics this year, as of right now - this division is a no-play.

    I believe ESPN reranks weekly, but I think I will be taking a look every two or four weeks to adjust the divisons we bet.

    As of 04/09/12:

    AL East: 1, 5, 6, 12, 28 - playable division
    AL Central: 4, 17, 20, 21, 22 - playable division
    AL West: 2, 3, 25, 29

    NL East; 8, 11, 14, 16, 27
    NL Central: 9, 13, 15, 23, 24, 30 - playable division (see below)
    NL West: 7, 10, 18, 19, 26

    Until my 1-11 start, I thought I knew a little about baseball, and considered the NL Central perhaps the most wide-open division in baseball. So I'll continue to bet those.

    2) This will be an underdog chase. I will take the underdog in the first game and chase a one-unit win for that team. I have yet to decide how to handle the situations for when a dog loses game one and then becomes favorite on game two, though because a lot of our games are road dogs, the favorite prices shouldn't be too bad. As of right now, we will not chase a fourth game.

    Because there are just so many games, and I don't want to be running a ton of chases twice a week, I am definitely looking for ways to pare this down.
    Last edited by akatdrake; 04-09-2012, 02:22 AM.
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

    Comment


    • #3
      Monday, 4/9.

      Current divisions being played: AL East, AL Central, NL Central

      St. Louis Cardinals +112 @ Cincinnati Reds

      Chicago Cubs +118 vs Milwaukee Brewers

      Boston Red Sox +108 @ Toronto Blue Jays

      If both teams are favorites, the series will NOT be a play (White Sox/Indians). We are only playing 3+ game series.
      NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
      MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
      MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
      NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
      Updated on 01/13/18
      ---
      One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

      Comment


      • #4
        Hit STL and BOS tonight. Will play on the Cubs again tomorrow when lines are released.

        Chicago Cubs +100 for 2 units
        Last edited by akatdrake; 04-10-2012, 11:46 AM.
        NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
        MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
        MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
        NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
        Updated on 01/13/18
        ---
        One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

        Comment


        • #5
          I also saw that I missed the NYY/BAL series. I remember looking at the line being -180/+160 or so and eliminating that series as well. I think we are looking at small underdogs here. So I will eliminate series to only include +100 to +150.
          NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
          MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
          MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
          NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
          Updated on 01/13/18
          ---
          One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

          Comment


          • #6
            Wednesday:

            Chicago Cubs +112 for 4 units
            NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
            MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
            MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
            NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
            Updated on 01/13/18
            ---
            One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

            Comment


            • #7
              No games today, except if I wanted to chase the Cubs for 8 units. Really don't feel like it this early on in the year, and in fact after doing some reading up on it, I could even eliminate the third chased game. I'll keep updating and backtesting.
              NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
              MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
              MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
              NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
              Updated on 01/13/18
              ---
              One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

              Comment


              • #8
                Hey, thanks Cubs for the win in the final game of the series.

                To recap:

                1) This is an underdog chase system.
                2) Rank the divisions bi-monthly. Currently playing: NL Central, AL Central, AL East
                3) Teams must play 3+ game series
                4) Chose the underdog for 1 unit in first game, 2 units in second game, 4 units in third game, 8 units in fourth game if you wish (I will not chase a fourth game).

                Through first series: 2-1, -4.8 units
                Last edited by akatdrake; 04-15-2012, 03:12 AM.
                NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                Updated on 01/13/18
                ---
                One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I always thought if i was going to chase it would be NL Central. I would be looking for the least streaky divison. NL central usally fits the bill.
                  Ya gotta look out for #1 or your gonna step in #2
                  -Rodney Dangerfield

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Thursday:

                    Chicago Cubs +180

                    Tampa Bay Rays +112

                    Cleveland Indians +107

                    Baltimore Orioles +177

                    Will be tracking the big faves. Tigers/White Sox no play due to -105/-105, will track before game time and play if I can if line moves.
                    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                    Updated on 01/13/18
                    ---
                    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Also, tracking the Cubs/Orioles series (series +150 for starting game). Orioles/Yankees that I eliminated earlier in the week - would have been a series loss for me.
                      NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                      MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                      MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                      NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                      Updated on 01/13/18
                      ---
                      One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Good day yesterday going 3-1.

                        Today is

                        Tampa Bay Rays +124 for two units
                        NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                        MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                        MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                        NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                        Updated on 01/13/18
                        ---
                        One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sunday:

                          Tampa Bay Rays -117 to win four units
                          NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                          MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                          MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                          NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                          Updated on 01/13/18
                          ---
                          One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            gl akat, with you on the rays. theyre due to have a decent game.
                            mlb 2018 157-110 +42.74 2018
                            nfl 2018 54-79-1 -21.4 units 2018
                            mlb 2019 348-245-3 +70.2 units 2019
                            nfl 2019 54-54 -21.2 units 2019
                            mlb 2020 112-75-1 +33.35 units 2020
                            nfl 2020 88-87-3 -8.4 units 2021
                            mlb 2020 playoffs 30-17 +30.6 units 2020
                            nfl playoffs 2020 11-11-1 +25.4 units 2021
                            mlb 2021 271-226 +18.3 units 2021
                            mlb 2022 240-239 -62.9 units as of 10-21-2022
                            nfl 2022 13-11 +9.5 units ytd as of week 2
                            mlb 2023 122-100 -3.1 units as of 9-27-2023
                            nfl 2023 4-3-1 +10.7 units as of 9-27-2023

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Thanks Gad. Unfortunately they did not hit, and created another series loss.

                              So far the series is 5-2, but -7.84 units
                              NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
                              MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
                              MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
                              NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
                              Updated on 01/13/18
                              ---
                              One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

                              Comment

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