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Had my worst day of the year on friday and followed it up with a Saturday that won me back everything I lost on friday + some. Hope today was the start of good things to come...
Mets - 147 to win 1 unit
Perez hasn't had great numbers vs the dback thru his career but this is a new year for Perez and he's looking like the pitcher people thought he would develop into. Thus I put little stock into his career numbers vs the dbacks. The numbers I put stock into are that's he's holding batters to under .215, be has a filthy 2.84 era at home and the dbacks are as a team hitting .244 vs left handed pitching. . Davis is having a solid year but he hasn't had much success at shea and isn't as reliable on the road vs home starts over his career. Despite no Beltran, no Green and no Alou the mets still can field a team that is tough on lefty pitching and that Wright was able to play today was an added bonus. It's not the cheapest price to pay but it is undervalued to me.
Stros - 123 to win 1 unit
I backed off the play today and now I'm backing them for tommorrow. Jennings looked solid off his injury return and had pitched well prior to the injury as well. His career numbers vs the cards are solid and the only trouble spot will likely be Pujols as his numbers vs the rest of the line up are good. He should be able to comfortably pitch around Pujols however as the only protection left in the line up for him is Edmonds who is batting .100 in 20 at bats vs jennings. If theres one pitcher for the cards I'd usually want to avoid betting against it'd be Looper (with carpenter out of course) as he's had a very good year but he's had 2 rough starts in his last 3 and isn't putting up the same numbers on the road as he is in his own yard. He has held the stros in check but they've faced him once in the last month already so the edge should be with the stro bats this time around. The stros also did leave 14 on base last time they faced Looper, so they can hit him. All in all it's not a heavy price to pay to fade such a beat up cards squad.
Braves + 130 x 1 unit
I'm a bit late to the fade the cubbies bandwagon but better late than never. In actuality I feel like I'm getting excellent value which is why I'm here. Marshall hasn't put up bad numbers by any means this year but he narrowly missed a beat down from the marlins as they stranded men on base all game vs him. San Diego is anemic on offense at the best of times and this one was in SD a very pitcher friendly park. Marshall has faced the braves bats in limited action and while they didn't torch him he was well hit by everybody.
He has been better at home but has fared badly during day games, something the braves bats do not do. Braves are also solid vs lefties. Cormiers a bit of a question mark as he's just back from injury but he's shown over his career to be a better road start during the day, 2 factors that'll be in play today. Cubbies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball these days and are making terrible decisions all over the place. My numbers have it a pk so for + odds I'll take the braves.
Jays - 125 to win 1 unit
It's all about the numbers here. Danks 5.40 era on the road, jays ,282 vs lefties as a team, chisox 5.49 bullpen era. Starting pitcher in a tough match up with no help on the horizon. Marcum getting better by the week, sparkling 2.18 home era this season albeit in limited action, he hasn't faced the sox prior so he'll have the edge his first time thru the order, chisox worst hitting road team in both leagues.
Tbay - 130 to win 1 unit
Don't know a lot about howell, he's not having a monster year in triple A going 3-5 with a 3.96 but he's facing almost a minor league squad with kc so if he can match these numbers he'll be plenty as my favorite fade rears his head for another start here. Elarton now sitting with a lofty 7.65 era, he's been marginally better on the road but when you're complete garbage at home, being a little less garbage on the road isn't a compliment. Even with the unknown I will gladly pay this price to back the better hitting line up vs the known gascan.
Angels - 130 to win 1 unit
Whats to say, Santana at home with the the way the Halos are hitting at home and against right handers is a no brainer. Guthrie's been solid since entering the rotation but this one comes down to knowing what you'll get out of Erv at home with a line up that is swinging hot right now all for a cheap price.
Texas + 133 to win 1 unit
I don't like betting against my M's but Beltre and Johjima should be riding the pine and while Feierabend pitched well vs the halos in his first start but his bullpen is taxed at the moment and it may force him to either go longer than he is comfortable or we get into the weaker end of the bullpen where runs can be had. Tejedas proved to be a good road start thru his career and the comfy confines of Safeco should give him some added safety. The M's have hit him but his numbers against them are solid. The M's should be favored no question but I'm getting too good a price to not take a stab with the rangers here.
Watching a couple lines closely...
Pitt and Cleveland specifically.
GL everyone
Mets - 147 to win 1 unit
Perez hasn't had great numbers vs the dback thru his career but this is a new year for Perez and he's looking like the pitcher people thought he would develop into. Thus I put little stock into his career numbers vs the dbacks. The numbers I put stock into are that's he's holding batters to under .215, be has a filthy 2.84 era at home and the dbacks are as a team hitting .244 vs left handed pitching. . Davis is having a solid year but he hasn't had much success at shea and isn't as reliable on the road vs home starts over his career. Despite no Beltran, no Green and no Alou the mets still can field a team that is tough on lefty pitching and that Wright was able to play today was an added bonus. It's not the cheapest price to pay but it is undervalued to me.
Stros - 123 to win 1 unit
I backed off the play today and now I'm backing them for tommorrow. Jennings looked solid off his injury return and had pitched well prior to the injury as well. His career numbers vs the cards are solid and the only trouble spot will likely be Pujols as his numbers vs the rest of the line up are good. He should be able to comfortably pitch around Pujols however as the only protection left in the line up for him is Edmonds who is batting .100 in 20 at bats vs jennings. If theres one pitcher for the cards I'd usually want to avoid betting against it'd be Looper (with carpenter out of course) as he's had a very good year but he's had 2 rough starts in his last 3 and isn't putting up the same numbers on the road as he is in his own yard. He has held the stros in check but they've faced him once in the last month already so the edge should be with the stro bats this time around. The stros also did leave 14 on base last time they faced Looper, so they can hit him. All in all it's not a heavy price to pay to fade such a beat up cards squad.
Braves + 130 x 1 unit
I'm a bit late to the fade the cubbies bandwagon but better late than never. In actuality I feel like I'm getting excellent value which is why I'm here. Marshall hasn't put up bad numbers by any means this year but he narrowly missed a beat down from the marlins as they stranded men on base all game vs him. San Diego is anemic on offense at the best of times and this one was in SD a very pitcher friendly park. Marshall has faced the braves bats in limited action and while they didn't torch him he was well hit by everybody.
He has been better at home but has fared badly during day games, something the braves bats do not do. Braves are also solid vs lefties. Cormiers a bit of a question mark as he's just back from injury but he's shown over his career to be a better road start during the day, 2 factors that'll be in play today. Cubbies aren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball these days and are making terrible decisions all over the place. My numbers have it a pk so for + odds I'll take the braves.
Jays - 125 to win 1 unit
It's all about the numbers here. Danks 5.40 era on the road, jays ,282 vs lefties as a team, chisox 5.49 bullpen era. Starting pitcher in a tough match up with no help on the horizon. Marcum getting better by the week, sparkling 2.18 home era this season albeit in limited action, he hasn't faced the sox prior so he'll have the edge his first time thru the order, chisox worst hitting road team in both leagues.
Tbay - 130 to win 1 unit
Don't know a lot about howell, he's not having a monster year in triple A going 3-5 with a 3.96 but he's facing almost a minor league squad with kc so if he can match these numbers he'll be plenty as my favorite fade rears his head for another start here. Elarton now sitting with a lofty 7.65 era, he's been marginally better on the road but when you're complete garbage at home, being a little less garbage on the road isn't a compliment. Even with the unknown I will gladly pay this price to back the better hitting line up vs the known gascan.
Angels - 130 to win 1 unit
Whats to say, Santana at home with the the way the Halos are hitting at home and against right handers is a no brainer. Guthrie's been solid since entering the rotation but this one comes down to knowing what you'll get out of Erv at home with a line up that is swinging hot right now all for a cheap price.
Texas + 133 to win 1 unit
I don't like betting against my M's but Beltre and Johjima should be riding the pine and while Feierabend pitched well vs the halos in his first start but his bullpen is taxed at the moment and it may force him to either go longer than he is comfortable or we get into the weaker end of the bullpen where runs can be had. Tejedas proved to be a good road start thru his career and the comfy confines of Safeco should give him some added safety. The M's have hit him but his numbers against them are solid. The M's should be favored no question but I'm getting too good a price to not take a stab with the rangers here.
Watching a couple lines closely...
Pitt and Cleveland specifically.
GL everyone
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