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Christmas Day NBA thoughts

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  • Christmas Day NBA thoughts

    Heat/Cavs - Cavaliers -5 : not much reason I just feel like they will win outright, and cover

    Suns/Lakers - Im looking at the total, their last match up blew the total (215) right out of the water, but Im wondering if both defenses have matured, Id be wary of posting a 221 total, but the under as of now seems to be the trend. I think I might like the over just because it seems so damn high

    Sonics +7.5
    /Blazers- Would be purely a public fade if I pull this trigger, Portland is doing awesome, but the sonics are no bad team, id be more comfortable going with Portland if the line was at around 5

    Well there is my thoughts... SOP I havent pulled the trigger yet, let you guys chime in tell me what you guys think before I lay money on any of them.. have done awful as of late (haven't updated my record yet), so double think if you want to tail me

    DISCUSS!!! :sm:
    Merry Christmas!
    Last Wager placed 01/11/09 - Loss
    Taking a sabbatical from wagering

  • #2
    Heat- Cavs as faves are terrible, Wade keeps it close IMO. Lean to the under, as this number looks a bit high to me. The Cavs have scored over 98 pts in just 2 of their last 13 games, & 1 was 2OT! Heat hve has some recent overs, but more because of hot shooting & ots, not pace. I'm definitely on the dog & Cavs team total under.

    Suns/Lakers over 221- Most of the time playing an under just because the line "seems" high results in a loss. In reality, this line is right around the total of their regular season matchups. We also have a rested Suns team, so I expect a fast pace & wouldn't go near the under here.... Big revenge angle for the Suns, as the Lakers beat them in their own house by 21 points- by far their biggest loss of the season. D'Antoni wasn't pleased with Jackson's late timeout, & ripped him for it. Tough call on the side, but I have a lean to the Suns, though getting the Lakers as a home dog is tough to pass on.

    Blazers/Sonics under- Slightly inflated line on the total IMO. Likely has something to do with the 123 pts the Sonics put up @ home vs. the Raptors (they shot 56% fg, 58% 3 pters, & were 19-21 from the ft line). They have also had some high totals on the road. However, I have to go with the under here. The Blazers have only seen 5 of their 15 home games go over 197 pts, & I think they would have the advantage in aa slower paced game. Although the linesmakers have caught up to Portland (I stated in my Sunday thread I expected a -7+ line), I still can't fade the Blazers. Why would you the way they have been playing? Better to lay off than fade a hot team IMO.

    Those are my thoughts, GL all & Merry Christmas :thumbs:
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...


    • #3
      Christmas day records:

      mia 3-1 @ cle 3-4
      pho 11-4 @ lal 18-15
      sea 0-10 @ por 12-1

      lal lost last 5 games on christmas day...

      cle 2-10 ats, this year as a fav...


      • #4
        Totally switching sides & rolling with the Lakeshow. The only thing I don't like is going against the revenge angle, & that's not enough for me. Home team getting points & IMO playing better than the Suns.....
        Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...


        • #5
          I was thinking the revenge angle too... but, on christmas day, in the NBA, the home team is 124-62 s/u... :beer2:


          • #6
            I like the Heat. Not thrilled with the Heat's play as a team, but the Cavs as a -5 fave?? More a fade of the Cavs there for me....

            And Lakers as a home dog. Public will roll in strong on the Suns as the day goes on (IMO) and +3.5 is definitely a possibility there.

            U198.5 looks like the best play to me in the Seattle/Portland game. The lines have caught up with Portland. No more free $$ there, lol, as I'm not convinced they're ready to be a fave of -7.5 or -8 yet. Save those lines for the Spurs, Celtics, Suns, etc...

            Might tail U-dog on the Cavs team u98 too.


            • #7
              Originally posted by homedawg View Post
              on christmas day, in the NBA, the home team is 124-62 s/u...

              add 2-0 for the home team... :beer2:


              • #8
                add another 1 for the home team on Xmas day....

                does anyone else see a trend here???