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***Tuesday NBA/Situations***

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  • ***Tuesday NBA/Situations***

    Straight 205-188 +35.91 units

    Dog MLs 18-35 +10.96 units




    Small profit last night, learning to be more selective on the higher lines ML parlays. Really didn't think NO was going to have that big of a look ahead! Today there are plenty of situations to go through, with some really good matchups. Hopefully it translates into winners......



    Dallas@Denver


    Dallas is coming in having lost b2b road games. The 102-95 loss to the Kings was a pretty bad spot for Mavs in hindsight, as Sac desperately needed a win & the Mavs were still shellshocked from the 28 pt loss @Phx. Dallas was 3-20 from the 3 pt line vs Sac, and only managed 2 fast break pts vs the Suns (while allowing 16). The road game before these two was a blowout loss @Mem, where they trailed by as many as 22 pts (memphis had double revenge). Howard is still out, which means Terry will have to produce.

    Denver is without Melo, and 2 days rested off a home loss to Det. Because Melo is out, JR Smith is starting alongside Kleiza. Vs Detroit the chemistry just wasn't there, as they were a combined 3-19 for 12 pts. The team as a whole were 2-13 from behind the 3 pt line. I expect these two to play much better together tonight, as the last time JR faced off vs Dallas, he torched them. Which brings me to the recent matchups between these two teams....


    First time they faced off, Denver won @ home 108-105. In this game Dallas shot 40%/ 37% from 3. Denver shot 38%/ 25% 3, but were 37-40 from ft line. 40 attempts when Dallas only had 16 attempts lol, NBA may want to look into the refs of that one. Point is the pace was there, & despite the fact that neither of them broke 45%, they both eclipsed 100 pts. Dallas was in a bad spot situationally coming off a road win @SA, while Denver was off a road loss.

    The next meeting was a 98-88 win for the Nuggets @Dallas. The Nuggets shot 46%fg 52% 3pters, while Dallas shot an abysmal 38% fg. Denver blew them right out of the gates, and never trailed in that game. The largest lead was 16 pts... so we have the double revenge angle at work....


    Tough game here, as when I first saw the double revenge angle I was set to pound the Mavs. However, I hate the fact that Denver is a 14-5 home team that is off a home loss. They were winning the whole game, then blew a 13 pt lead to lose 93-90. Makes it worse that they've had 3 days to think about it. Another reason why it is so tough to make a play on the Mavs is that they have allowed 102 or more in their last 3 road games, and have been blown out two of them. I think thetotal is set a bit low to account for no Melo, Howard, & the previous low scoring Nuggets game. However, looking at the matchups, I see no reason why both of these teams can't get over the century mark. Both teams have motivation to have a good offensive showing, with quite a bit of individual motivation.... Dirk has been struggling lately, but his numbers are great vs Denver. No way can Kenyon cover Dirk. IMO Terry is great when he's on, & I'm sure Kidd will want to play the uptempo game. In the end I think double revenge is too much to ignore, when you're catching 6 points. Would have been a top unit play for me on the Mavs, had the Nuggets not lost their last home game. Likely plays on Dallas+pts, Dallas team over & game over. May have to sprinkle some ML on that as well.
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

  • #2
    Lakers@Houston

    Another revenge game. This one interests me quite a bit. The Lakers beat up on Houston in the last meeting 111-82. The Lakers shot 53%, 53% from 3 as well. Houston shot 37.8% while hitting 35% from behind the 3 pt line. TMac finished 1-11 and in 32 minutes had 3 pts...Houston was outscored 95-54 in the last 3 quarters, and had 20 turnovers. LA had 10 blocks. So this is a huge revenge game.

    Battier returned to the lineup vs NY, adding some much needed defense. I like some of the quotes he had after the game, saying this is the first time the team has felt good about where they were going. I think that they will go on a tear. Gimme Yao/Scola over Bynum/Gasol. Great matchups there, but I tend to think Scola has a big day.

    The Lakers have been winning, but have been struggling ats. 3 pt win vs the Heat (119 allowed), 2 pt win vs the Pacers (105pts allowed), an 8 pt win vs GS (106 aallowed). To me that's indicative of a team that is bound to catch a loss. They aren't playing defense, & Odom clearly is a bigger piece to the Lakers than most would think. Looking at their schedule, they are going to have to play much better if they want to keep winning. They are @SA tomorrow, followed by home games vs Orlando & Cleveland. Tough games, I think this could be a rough patch for the Lakers.... Likely plays on Rockets & ML with a possible play on Lakers tt under.
    Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

    Comment


    • #3
      Miami @ Minny

      The Wolves have won 5 straight, and are coming off a 2 pt come from behind home win. All wins have been against teams with a losing record. The Heat have dropped 3 of 4, with their sole win cominh @Sac. They are 7-11 on the road. Looking at the numbers for the Wolves, it's clear to see why they are doing so well lately. Their bench is producing a considerable amount. Telfair had 11 assists & 17 pts the last game, and has been a dishing machine lately. Love has been working hard & getting more minutes because of it- he only had 5 pts last game, but 12 boards is what impresses me. The performances of the bench have led to Foye/Miller getting more open looks. Of course the key to the Wolves is Jefferson. I simply do not think the Heat will have an answer for him. Anthony? Haslem &.... Beasley? Safe to say they will be doubling him all night. I will be playing on the Wolves+pts, thinking Jefferson will still dominate, Love will produce & the guards will knock down some open looks. Thinking the Wolves win by 6+. After this home game they are @Phx, @LAC & @Utah, so it will be tough for the streak to continue...
      Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

      Comment


      • #4
        ran out of time, todays plays....


        Rockets+4-105

        Wolves+2

        Bobcats/Pistons u175.5-105

        Mavericks team o100

        3 units each



        Hawks team o103

        Suns/Hawks o105 1sth

        Rockets team o95.5

        2 units each




        Tailing FF's NCAAB

        Evansville ml
        Tenn ml
        Cavaliers ml

        1.5 to win 2.65 units




        Rockets ML
        Mavericks ML

        1 to win 7 units





        Leaning Kings & under....
        Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

        Comment


        • #5
          Hawks shooting horrible out of the gate. 4 of 20 right now. Gonna need a huge 2ndq to even have a shot at the first half.

          Was very close to a 2ndh ml play on Memphis, but I layed off....
          Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

          Comment


          • #6
            Lakers u49.5 2ndh

            Rockets+3-105/+158

            1 unit each/ 1 unit ml



            Expecting more defense 2ndh. 2ndh under looks solid IMO....
            Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

            Comment


            • #7
              If this Pistons game goes into ot, so help me god.......
              Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

              Comment


              • #8
                Hell yes Bobcats! Would have been bad to lose such an easy under to ot.... Now Minny looks like they're choking it up though....



                Kings+8

                +160 1stq

                2 units each
                Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Hawks+3.5 2ndh

                  3 units





                  Shot horribly 1stq, but came storming back. Gut feeling they take it su, but I'm grabbing the pts for insurance....
                  Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    GL homey!
                    :beer2:
                    ...toke on...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Thanks Rah!


                      otal bone job in Minny. Wade misses the second ft, but the Wolves couldn't get the rebound. Lose by 1 :bang:
                      Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Mavericks-120 2ndh

                        2 units
                        Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

                        Comment

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