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  • Heat

    So the bulls demolish the heat in game 1. The books put out the same line, bulls -1.5???? that screams heat to me. Does anyone have an opinion on this? How can they not adjust atleast a little bit? Are they worried people would load up too much on heat +4?

    Also, how can the heat be +100 to win the series after the game 1 loss? Their series price odds went down after a loss? Also very strange. This has me thinking the books still have heat winning this series.

    Any comments?

  • #2
    Not sure I follow you here. The Heat were -200 to win the series, they're currently down in the series by a game. So a drop in 100 pts to +100 seems reasonable to me.

    I think the Bulls -1.5 sounds about right for the second game. It shouldn't really go up, Heat really need to win Game 2 so at least to me, it wouldn't really make sense for the Heat to be a +4.

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    • #3
      my bad didnt realize heat were - 200 thanks.

      i see game 2 as a heat line. bulls blow them out and no adjustment? just doesnt seem right to me. i know the books have been doing this all playoffs, but i think this is a give away.

      Comment


      • #4
        Daws.... I agree.

        Based on the game...Chicago pounding the Heat in the 2H, you would expect the line to go up a pt or so just to satisfy Joe Public. Joe Public aint very smart and basically only can remember the last game....

        Leaning Heat right now.

        Line now 2.
        Go Boilers!
        thru 5/6


        NCAAF '20-21 214-186-5 +38.69

        NBA '20-21 195-170-6 +39.26

        NHL '20-21 137-126-2 +30.32

        MLB '21 73-71-1 +29.56

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        • #5
          Weird you guys look at it that way, cause when i look at it i think joe public expects miami to win game 2, i think everyone i know has said miami will tie this series up wednesday, and when i see a line with chicago favored, it screams to me for heat money, i think the books are backing a chicago 2-0 lead in this series... miami cant rebound vs the bulls, and miami cant stop rose from penetrating the middle, it seems to me alot of people will look past matchups and expect a miami team full of superstars to come back and win...


          maybe im wrong but my inital thought after game one was i want to play the heat game 2, but after seeing the bulls favored, i might switch my play to the bulls, i mean look at if from a series perspective vegas put miami as the favorite to win the series, if they were backing miami why would they give the public a chance to + money the money line wager for a miami straight up win, if the house like miami to win why not make a -2 line or -2.5?

          making it plus money shows me they are backing the bulls, cause lets say the public has their mind set on the bulls winning this game because how they showed dominance in game 1 at home, and everyone knows the bulls are great at home... if the books are gonna back miami they would get alot more chicago money at +2.5 than -1.5...


          i dunno maybe im over analyzing this but the more i look at it i see books backing bulls here..
          NCAAF YTD
          Overall

          67-46-2 +41.08 units

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          • #6
            ------------


            Oh and btw i know this thread is about heat and bulls, but i dont wanna make a new topic too just say one thing...


            I think OKC +6 has alot of value, and even the money line...


            i play basketball, and in my opinion you have a team full of shooters, i think a layover hurts you more than helps you, I think OKC will come in and steal game 1 just because they have a basketball flow going, while i feel dallas will be flat footed and shooting heavy balls baning the rims in game 1, rhythm is very important to shooters hard to maintain that through practice and no game time with a week off, kinda like 1st quarter in most football bowl games...

            just my opinion of how game 1 in dallas goes..
            NCAAF YTD
            Overall

            67-46-2 +41.08 units

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            • #7
              Originally posted by DukiesBaby View Post
              Weird you guys look at it that way, cause when i look at it i think joe public expects miami to win game 2, i think everyone i know has said miami will tie this series up wednesday, and when i see a line with chicago favored, it screams to me for heat money, i think the books are backing a chicago 2-0 lead in this series... miami cant rebound vs the bulls, and miami cant stop rose from penetrating the middle, it seems to me alot of people will look past matchups and expect a miami team full of superstars to come back and win...


              maybe im wrong but my inital thought after game one was i want to play the heat game 2, but after seeing the bulls favored, i might switch my play to the bulls, i mean look at if from a series perspective vegas put miami as the favorite to win the series, if they were backing miami why would they give the public a chance to + money the money line wager for a miami straight up win, if the house like miami to win why not make a -2 line or -2.5?

              making it plus money shows me they are backing the bulls, cause lets say the public has their mind set on the bulls winning this game because how they showed dominance in game 1 at home, and everyone knows the bulls are great at home... if the books are gonna back miami they would get alot more chicago money at +2.5 than -1.5...


              i dunno maybe im over analyzing this but the more i look at it i see books backing bulls here..
              I agree. It looks to me like a lot of people were predicting the Heat to win this series and are unwilling to back off that prediction eventhough the Bulls completely destroyed the Heat in G1. The Bulls are the younger, more energetic, and hungrier team.

              Comment


              • #8
                I disagree about the line "telling" you anything. In playoff series the game 1/game 2 lines are nearly always the same, regardless of margin of victory in game 1. Only time I have seen it move (more than a half on sharp books) was injury related.


                I would be awfully nervous come 2ndh to have money on the Heat, until they can show something bench wise. Not sure what I'm doing game 2, but if the Heat lose I will be playing them ML game 3. This series is going the distance imo, maybe I will get down on a game 7 prop.
                Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by DukiesBaby View Post

                  I think OKC +6 has alot of value, and even the money line...

                  in my opinion you have a team full of shooters, i think a layover hurts you more than helps you
                  My initial thoughts as well. The Thunder are a young team that is coming with a very different offense than the Lakers did. The Mavs have been sitting around waiting so they very well get caught sleepwalking 1sth. Dallas hasn't had to defend a pg that will take it inside.

                  On the other hand there is this question.... who will be able to guard Dirk? I think he will make Collison look silly
                  Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

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                  • #10
                    My opinion is that lbj and d wade will have more than 8 free throws between them in the next game, the heat won't score only 31 pts the entire 2nd half or whatever pathetic amount it was, and chicago won't hit 50% from 3 pt range for the game again, as they weren't a very good 3 pt shooting team all season.

                    I think game 1 was a case of Chicago "wanting it" more and it showed. They took it to Miami in that 2nd half defensively and Miami couldn't answer their intensity, and as a result Miami looked/played like ****. I also think Miami will make defensive adjustments and force someone other than d rose to beat them, and if they are able to do that, imho chicago does not have a player capable of creating offense for himself or anyone else.

                    Miami will probably still get out rebounded, but not as bad on the chicago offensive end, and those are the rebounds that are disheartening and game changing.

                    Miami will in game 2, imho

                    GL however you go

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
                      My opinion is that lbj and d wade will have more than 8 free throws between them in the next game, the heat won't score only 31 pts the entire 2nd half or whatever pathetic amount it was, and chicago won't hit 50% from 3 pt range for the game again, as they weren't a very good 3 pt shooting team all season.
                      you are probably correct. Plus it's not like this game was a blowout from the jump, the Bulls pulled away 2ndh. Possible over situation
                      Champagne for my real friends, real pain for my sham friends...

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                      • #12
                        Miami and Over today fellas.

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                        • #13
                          dallas okc game 1....




                          I didnt get to sit and watch the game just glanced over and check score...



                          How in the world is there 79 free throws attempted and only 1 player fouls out?

                          dirk 24-24 :laughing: People breathing on him alot last night? the guy doesnt drive to the basket like derrick rose how the hell is he fouled enough for 24 ft's?
                          NCAAF YTD
                          Overall

                          67-46-2 +41.08 units

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