An * play for Friday Feb 28

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  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 441

    An * play for Friday Feb 28

    Recap: 0-1
    Record: 7-3

    Review:
    Had Max Christie Ov 11' pts.
    Had TEN pts at halftime.
    Money was all but banked, right?
    Wrong!!!
    He puts up, zero, zip, nada in the second half.
    Bastard.
    NEXT!

    Okay, I've got one.
    An asterisk play.
    Tonight.
    Nationally televised game.
    A Fade against a team many bettors love to hate and root against.
    The Lakers.

    WF2 says LAL should be the Fav.
    WF1 says, "I don't think so."
    And the differential I get between the numbers for each system is enough for this one to qualify as an asterisk play.

    Let's look at some * numbers.
    NBA 3-10 overall, a 77% Fade.
    Hm teams (like LAL tonight) 1-6, an 85% Fade.

    Note - my data is missing games played between Jan 15 and Feb 25 due to illness so the 13 game sample is smaller than it should be.
    (I think I have data on a few NBA games from late last season when I discovered * plays, I'll dig around and try to find it, will add it to this post if I can.)

    Asterisk spot has been a solid Fade in college too, 5-12 with a pt differential of 20 or >, a 70% Fade.

    With numbers like these in both college and pro the * spot is an automatic play.

    Today's play:
    LAC (I'm waiting to buy it. The Clips are -4' right now but I expect Luca LeBron money to come in from Joe Public. Good chance I can shake that hook off )

    Good luck to all of you tonight.
    It's good to be back!
    Last edited by RBD; 02-28-2025, 01:19 PM.
  • RBD
    Predictem Feature Writer
    • Aug 2024
    • 441

    #2
    Will post last year's NBA * numbers here if I can find them.

    Update:
    Line moved against me, grabbed it at -5.

    And I found LY's record for NBA asterisk spots, 3-7.
    I don't have the breakdown for Hm/Rd though, but at a 7-3 70% Fade the play is consistent.
    Last edited by RBD; 02-28-2025, 01:18 PM.

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