NBA 4/23

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-8
Review: Yesterday I used Under 210' in the Laker game.
It landed on 179, clearing the bar by a solid 31' points.

Today I have EIGHT spots that qualify for the various handicapping methods I use.
I detailed them all in today's column, just submitted it.
It should be up soon.
So far I only bought one play, it's in the article.

Still crunching numbers, I may add another play, if I do I'll post it here.

Good luck with your play today.

Update: Bad move on my part. The gist of today's article was how the Mia/Cle total opened too low and then dropped even lower. Normally, when I know the number is too low I'll wait to buy an Under hoping smart money will come in and push it higher. I got 211' and I see 212/213 showing up now.
Amateur mistake.

[RBD]

The last time I used an Ov on an Orl/Bos game was back on April 9.
I got killed when Boston put up a season low 76 points.

But despite all the stats that I listed in my article today which point to an Under in this game, (stats from my personal models, not standard stats) I bought it Over.

The first game in this playoff series had a total of 206.
They combined for 189.

That's 17 points fewer than the set total on that game.

That's 7' fewer than the current number for tonight's game, 196'.

Orlando's 86 points scored is 17.7 points fewer than Orlando's PPG average of 103.7 on the Rd.

Three of the four quarters in that game saw the Magic score fewer than 20 points.
In their three previous meetings with the Celtics this season they had only two sub-20 quarters out of 12.

In those 12 quarters they averaged 24.8

I'll chalk up Orlando's scoring deficiencies to opening game jitters, in a Rd game. And I expect an uptick with their scoring tonight.

Update: Tatum is out. Thought I checked the injury report before I made my buy, didn't see him listed.
So my concern regarding scoring may be on the Celtic side not the Magic as commented on above.

Looking at some Boston scores with Tatum not in the lineup (disregarding the ones from the final week of the season when the Celtics were resting multiple starters) here's what I see:
They scored 132 versus Phoenix, 104 vs Brooklyn, 114 vs Utah, 128 vs Portland, 104 vs Orlando, 123 and 130 vs Detroit.
Turns out I'm not that concerned at all.

Yes there were times in the last week of this season where the Celtics didn't play well on offense without Tatum, but those were meaningless games. There'll be a slightly (<-sarc) different level of focus and effort in a playoff game at home like tonight.


My play:
Orl/Boston Ov 196'